WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

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dexterlabio
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Re: Re:

#61 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:17 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:They are underestimating the intensity. It is undergoing an RI phase right now.



I was referring to the strength of the subtropical ridge. I'm not sure if the models are seeing that very well.
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#62 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:17 pm

latest 00z upper air soundings across the Philippines show easterlies well established from 300mb to 100mb. also, the weakness seems to be located around Kyushu and into the Ryukyu Islands, it just has to move fast to weaken that ridge.

but if this deepens quickly, it might be influence more by the upper-level winds and could head on a more westerly course than was forecast. with that said, i'm still thinking this will avoid the Philippine Islands altogether.

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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#63 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:24 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:latest 00z upper air soundings across the Philippines show easterlies well established from 300mb to 100mb. also, the weakness seems to be located around Kyushu and into the Ryukyu Islands, it just has to move fast to weaken that ridge.

but if this deepens quickly, it might be influence more by the upper-level winds and could head on a more westerly course than was forecast. with that said, i'm still thinking this will avoid the Philippine Islands altogether.




The weakening of the ridge should be on time for this storm to clear the Philippines...or else a NNW turn will be a little too late IMO..


EDIT: It looks to have slowed down now, could be a sign of a more northward turn in the coming hours...
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#64 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:18 pm

the microwave eye disappeared based on the latest TRMM pass.
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#65 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:28 pm

The center is barely under the convection based on low-level cloud features outside the sheared blob. ASCAT passed over the eastern half of the storm between 0z-1z and didn't sample winds stronger than 35kt, though it's possible that stronger winds reside on the west side.

I don't think this is a 55kt cyclone right now though.

Matmo should get its act together starting tomorrow as the upper-level pattern improves (as I mentioned in my other post).
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#66 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Jul 19, 2014 12:52 am

Is it dry air trying to intrude Matmo's core or it's just Matmo trying to wrap even more to form an eye.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10W/imagery/vis-animated.gif
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#67 Postby stormstrike » Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:43 am

officially a TYPHOON.

still with the westerly track.. it should start moving nnw when it crosses the 130 longitude.or the philippines would be on its direct path if it won't..next few hours would be crucial.

by the way...we are experiencing heavy rains and moderate winds here in tacloban since early morning..
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#68 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:47 am

TY 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 19 July 2014
<Analyses at 19/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N11°20'(11.3°)
E130°00'(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 20/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 22/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E120°55'(120.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#69 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:41 am

stormstrike wrote:officially a TYPHOON.

still with the westerly track.. it should start moving nnw when it crosses the 130 longitude.or the philippines would be on its direct path if it won't..next few hours would be crucial.

by the way...we are experiencing heavy rains and moderate winds here in tacloban since early morning..

Reminds me of Fengshen 2008, when the typhoon was forecast to recurve, it actually turned W-WNW and lashed the Philippines by surprise. It lashed Visayas, the parts of Luzon, most notably the NCR. It turned Northward towards China afterwards. I hope this does not pan out with Matmo. :( BTW, Cebu City has been experiencing light-to-moderate and occasionally heavy rain and very dark skies. Right now, the rain stopped but may come back as the clouds are very thick.
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#70 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:48 am

DOES NOT look like a typhoon, at all. I guess it retained its intensity.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:44 am

On the verge of becoming our 5th typhoon as winds now up to 60 knot and forecast to become major typhoon before Taiwan landfall!
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:47 am

Latest and future outlook on Tropical Storm Matmo.


WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 614 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME OBSCURED BY BUILDING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 190610Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI LOOP AND SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSETTING BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72,
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING ACROSS JAPAN. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALONG THE TRACK AND WILL FURTHER SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 10W WILL CONTINUE REMAIN ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINS SOLID, UNPERTURBED BY A SECONDARY TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT
APPROACHES TAIWAN BY TAU 96. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO THE CHINESE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE
TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#73 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:08 am

euro6208 wrote:On the verge of becoming our 5th typhoon as winds now up to 60 knot and forecast to become major typhoon before Taiwan landfall!

IT was already officially upgraded to a typhoon hours ago typhoon. Do not ignore the JMA please.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Severe Tropical Storm

#74 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:17 am

JMA forecast for Typhoon Matmo.

Image

TY 1410 (MATMO)
Issued at 10:10 UTC, 19 July 2014

<Analyses at 19/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N11°20'(11.3°)
E130°00'(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 20/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 22/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E120°55'(120.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:38 am

10W MATMO 140719 1200 11.7N 130.6E WPAC 65 974

5th typhoon of the season!
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#76 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:04 am

Image
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#77 Postby ^tamago^ » Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:08 am

GEM says it will go to northern Taiwan while JMA says it will go to southern Taiwan :o
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#78 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:12 am

15:00 UTC discussion.

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191123Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS JAPAN. THIS TROUGH WILL MODIFY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP TY 10W ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN AFTER TAU 84. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE FINAL LANDFALL INTO THE
CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT
OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#79 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:25 am

Not sure with JMA's position of Matmo. Not sold to the idea that the center is on the western part of that CDO.
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Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#80 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:57 pm

21:00 UTC JTWC warning.

Image
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