WPAC: MATMO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
HurricaneTracker2031
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 248
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 7:20 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, FL, USA
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#81 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:52 pm

Matmo did strengthened over the past 24 hours and is looking very healthy.. Let's see what we will get out of this.

Current Floater Satellite Imagery
Image

Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/FxWsKm


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   
SHORT VERSION OF DISCLAIMER: THIS SITE LINK BELOW IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECASTING OFFICE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO MAKE ANY EMERGENCY DECISIONS....

http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6723
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#82 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:55 pm

Not intensifying at the moment

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .52pc.html

earlier, a well defined eye was visible on the microwave. Now... looks to have been sheared a bit
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6723
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#83 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:22 pm

I wonder if Matmo will FINALLY convince some here to stop using the ECMWF to predict genesis and intensity in the deep tropics.

It simply cannot predict genesis in the deep tropics. It depicts near cat 5s as open wave (Rammasun, until it cleared the Philippines), and has Matmo as a very weak system
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2041
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#84 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:37 pm

The GFS continues to forecast a beautiful upper-air setup for Matmo, with a large anticyclone and dual outflow channels. Conducive for rapid deepening if it pans out.

I think we'll be dealing with a whole different storm in 2 to 3 days than we are now.
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1214
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#85 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:37 pm

Alyono wrote:I wonder if Matmo will FINALLY convince some here to stop using the ECMWF to predict genesis and intensity in the deep tropics.

It simply cannot predict genesis in the deep tropics. It depicts near cat 5s as open wave (Rammasun, until it cleared the Philippines), and has Matmo as a very weak system


Here here!

It's beyond useless when it comes to that. Bring back the glory days of the Euro, I remember it nailing Sepat back in 2007 over a week out, formation and track. Funnily the JTWC forecast track for Matmo reminds me of Sepat somewhat.
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112131
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:49 pm

Hi James. Are you going to chase Matmo in Taiwan?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6723
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#87 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:39 pm

Badly sheared at the moment

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .84pc.html

Most likely, this is not a typhoon at the moment, but should become one again in about 12 hours
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14080
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#88 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:22 pm

10W MATMO 140720 0000 12.7N 129.5E WPAC 70 970

Remains 70 knots.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1522
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#89 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:54 pm

It doesn't look like a typhoon...

_______________________________
TXPQ29 KNES 200327
TCSWNP

A. 10W (MATMO)

B. 20/0232Z

C. 13.5N

D. 129.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENTATION LOOKS IMPRESSIVE IN ANIMATED
EIR IMAGERY WITH AN EXTENSIVE COLD OVERCAST THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE EYE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY BETWEEN 1541Z AND 1846Z IS GONE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 2141Z
THROUGH 0109Z SHOWED AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH
ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM WAS CHARACTERIZED IN THE 0232Z VISIBLE IMAGE BY AN IRREGULAR
1.6 DEGREE CDO WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE
PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD FEATURES
USED TO DERIVE THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0109Z 13.5N 129.8E TMI


...TURK
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

vrif
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 282
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 10:51 pm

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#90 Postby vrif » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:34 pm

This is what the ascat-a saw 4 hours ago.
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3313
Age: 16
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#91 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:53 pm

Looks more like 60 kts, and not 65-70 knots.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14080
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#92 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:14 am

Very interesting 00Z run.

Completely misses Taiwan and instead makes landfall south of Shanghai, The most populated city on earth!

Pressure 958 mb...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

madness
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 11:23 pm
Location: Shanghai, China 中国上海市

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#93 Postby madness » Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:42 am

The 00Z GFS run is showing a possible landfall in Zhejiang province and weakening to "tropical storm strength" at Shanghai and then curves NE towards the Korean Peninsula.

5-day forecasts for typhoons have a considerable tracking error - we will have to wait and see.
It is "normal" to get typhoons curving NE towards the Korean Peninsula though usually they dont cross the east Chinese coastline.

Edit: the JMA 5-day forecast is very different to GFS
There is too much uncertainty to draw conclusions this early
By Tuesday the forecasts should be more aligned and we can try to draw conclusions
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3313
Age: 16
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#94 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:32 am

Strong winds and rains here in Cebu.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2803
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#95 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:46 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Strong winds and rains here in Cebu.


Since when has it started raining in your area? Was it heavy or continuous?



I agree with the previous posts, this doesn't look like a typhoon..in fact this could be the ugliest-looking typhoon I've seen. :lol: Though the latest few sat frames show the structure becoming more circular and symmetric again...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

^tamago^
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:02 am

#96 Postby ^tamago^ » Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:07 pm

GEM 2012Z says an eye over Taipei.
0 likes   

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#97 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:21 pm

not a hint of an eyewall in the latest microwave pass. still dealing with the wind shear
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6723
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#98 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:14 pm

remains highly sheared and has a CCC pattern on satellite imagery. Both indicate no intensification

GFS has not handled this correctly to date as this should have been intensifying by now
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1522
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MATMO - Typhoon

#99 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:27 pm

ugliest typhoon I ever saw. I'm surprised both JMA and JTWC is not yet downgrading this.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#100 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:51 pm

it's starting to show signs of intensification, actually.. the effects of strong wind shear are starting to wear off--you can see it on the visible satellite loop. the eyewall is also starting to take shape.

we should see continuous intensification from now until landfall tomorrow. i'm still expecting this to reach Category 3 strength.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests