CPAC: WALI - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#41 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:37 pm

They should've raised the odds from yesterday. It's okay.

Our first CPAC depression!
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#42 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:50 pm

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Not too shabby for a depression.
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#43 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:05 pm

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I just wonder how much shear is affecting it right now.
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Re:

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Image

I just wonder how much shear is affecting it right now.


Not much. It is in a very favorable environment.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90C

#45 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:27 pm

Last night's ASCAT indicated a closed circulation with 30 kt winds. Today's satellite indicates it could be a TS with 35kt winds.
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Re: Re:

#46 Postby weathernerdguy » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:well, i guess it went over a anticyclone..


Huh? How can a system go "over" an anticyclone?

i know im untrue, but, it is currently UNDER a anti cyclone that made the massive convection burst
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90C

#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Last night's ASCAT indicated a closed circulation with 30 kt winds. Today's satellite indicates it could be a TS with 35kt winds.


I'd agree it is around 35 knts given the CDO-like convection.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90C

#48 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:Last night's ASCAT indicated a closed circulation with 30 kt winds. Today's satellite indicates it could be a TS with 35kt winds.

Yup, that's what I've been thinking as soon as that CDO started expanding.

Problem we have here is that the CPHC is very conservative.
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#49 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:53 pm

Oh boy.

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#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

WTPA31 PHFO 172049
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 17 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORMS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 140.7W
ABOUT 1070 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY...AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re:

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Oh boy.

Image


CPHC tends to make those kinds of mistakes a lot. It's fixed now.
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#52 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:01 pm

LOL.

They uploaded the wrong discussion. i was extremely confused.

The discussion I'm seeing is from August 2013.
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#53 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:05 pm

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#54 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:LOL.

They uploaded the wrong discussion. i was extremely confused.

The discussion I'm seeing is from August 2013.


They took it down now. Man, CPHC is always late.
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#55 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:19 pm

So I guess no discussion?
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#56 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:24 pm

This might add another weak storm on our list, according to the current forecast. As of now, considering the past storms this month, I will agree with the forecast of a 40 knot peak.
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#57 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:46 pm

Image

Decent structure at the mid levels. Let's see how far it can go before the great Hawaiian shear kicks in.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#58 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:52 pm

Really looks like a tropical storm:

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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:12 pm

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TS Wali
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#60 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:41 pm

WTPA41 PHFO 172201
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALI SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
1200 PM HST THU JUL 17 2014

A RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 35 TO 40 KT WITHIN
THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT...CPHC HAS UPGRADED IT TO TROPICAL STORM WALI. FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS WALI WILL
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WALI. THE PRIOR FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2200Z 12.8N 140.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 141.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.9N 143.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 17.2N 146.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.4N 150.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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