CPAC: WALI - Post-Tropical

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#61 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:37 pm

60 mph is very reasonable.

I'm surprised they didn't have a discussion in the previous package.
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#62 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:50 pm

CPHC is not showing any links that take you to the advisory page. Does anyone have a link?
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Re:

#63 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:CPHC is not showing any links that take you to the advisory page. Does anyone have a link?

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/WALI.php
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Re:

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:60 mph is very reasonable.

I'm surprised they didn't have a discussion in the previous package.


Never be surprised with the CPHC. It was hidden in the storm archives.

WTPA41 PHFO 172059
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 17 2014

DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASED AND BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUS WE ARE INITIATING ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C. THE CPHC DVORAK CLASSIFICATION CAME IN
AT 2.0/2.0...WHILE JTWC AND SAB CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES WERE AT 1.5
AND 1.0... RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE RAPID ORGANIZATION...AND A SERIES
OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS DEEMED ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRAWN EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES DUE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE EASTERN FLANK. AS ONE-C BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...IT
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE. THE INITIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.

ONE-C WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL IS EXPECTED IN THE
SHORT TERM. BEYOND 24 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ABRUPTLY INCREASE AS ONE-C MOVES CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PARKED JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...ONE-C
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.7N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 141.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.9N 143.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 17.2N 146.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.4N 150.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#65 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:55 pm

The real question is - will it be able to make good use of its 24 hours?
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Re:

#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:01 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:The real question is - will it be able to make good use of its 24 hours?


It has been making good use of it thus far.
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Re: Re:

#67 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:04 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:The real question is - will it be able to make good use of its 24 hours?


It has been making good use of it thus far.


I admit it looks good for something that has a limited area for development
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Re: Re:

#68 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:60 mph is very reasonable.

I'm surprised they didn't have a discussion in the previous package.


Never be surprised with the CPHC. It was hidden in the storm archives.

WTPA41 PHFO 172059
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 17 2014

DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASED AND BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUS WE ARE INITIATING ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C. THE CPHC DVORAK CLASSIFICATION CAME IN
AT 2.0/2.0...WHILE JTWC AND SAB CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES WERE AT 1.5
AND 1.0... RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE RAPID ORGANIZATION...AND A SERIES
OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS DEEMED ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRAWN EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES DUE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE EASTERN FLANK. AS ONE-C BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...IT
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE. THE INITIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.

ONE-C WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL IS EXPECTED IN THE
SHORT TERM. BEYOND 24 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ABRUPTLY INCREASE AS ONE-C MOVES CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PARKED JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...ONE-C
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.7N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 141.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.9N 143.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 17.2N 146.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.4N 150.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE



THANK YOU!!!
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Re: Re:

#69 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:60 mph is very reasonable.

I'm surprised they didn't have a discussion in the previous package.


Never be surprised with the CPHC. It was hidden in the storm archives.

WTPA41 PHFO 172059
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 17 2014

DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASED AND BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. THUS WE ARE INITIATING ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C. THE CPHC DVORAK CLASSIFICATION CAME IN
AT 2.0/2.0...WHILE JTWC AND SAB CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES WERE AT 1.5
AND 1.0... RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE RAPID ORGANIZATION...AND A SERIES
OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS DEEMED ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRAWN EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES DUE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE EASTERN FLANK. AS ONE-C BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...IT
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE. THE INITIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.

ONE-C WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL IS EXPECTED IN THE
SHORT TERM. BEYOND 24 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ABRUPTLY INCREASE AS ONE-C MOVES CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PARKED JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...ONE-C
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.7N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 141.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.9N 143.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 17.2N 146.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.4N 150.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE



THANK YOU!!!


You're welcome :P
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#70 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:15 pm

It's looking rather well, I agree. I would bump it to 55mph.

I think the stronger it gets the more NW the track shifts. Hawaii really needs the rain right now. This impeding El Nino has made the weather here in Hawaii very very hot and dry.
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Re:

#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:It's looking rather well, I agree. I would bump it to 55mph.

I think the stronger it gets the more NW the track shifts. Hawaii really needs the rain right now. This impeding El Nino has made the weather here in Hawaii very very hot and dry.


CPHC nor does the NHC use 55 mph/
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#72 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:47 pm

Oh really?
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Re:

#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Oh really?


NHC skips 55, 95, 130, and 170 mph.
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#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:06 pm

CP, 01, 2014071800, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1411W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 80, 0, 20, 1009, 150, 40, 50, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, WALI, D, 12, NEQ, 40, 60, 0, 0,

18z ATCF keeps it at 40 knts.
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#75 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:04 pm

WTPA41 PHFO 180240
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM WALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012014
500 PM HST THU JUL 17 2014

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH WALI HAS SHOWN NO SIGN OF
INTENSIFICATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
FORMED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND HAVE BEEN RECENTLY HINTING AT
DEVELOPING INTO CURVED BANDS AROUND A DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOW
LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM CPHC AND JTWC CAME IN AT 2.5
AND 2.0...RESPECTIVELY...PUTTING THE HIGH END INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT
35 KT. HOWEVER...GIVEN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF
35 TO 40 KT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS
BEEN HELD AT 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...ABOUT 325/10 KT. WALI
IS BEING STEERED INTO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS MOTION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST AS THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM IS INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE
AND REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...
POSSIBLY AS LONG AS 24 HOURS. A RIDGE ALOFT OVER WALI IS PROVIDING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER WALI...AND THE NASA/SPORT SST COMPOSITE
PRODUCT REVEALS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE OCEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 TO
27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...WALI WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HOURS...POSSIBLY LESS ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS
HELD ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 141.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.7N 142.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.9N 144.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 17.1N 145.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.1N 147.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 151.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#76 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:13 pm

Right now it looks like there are two dominant bursts of convection from the north and south of the COC, and look like they're trying to wrap around. Let's see what it can do.
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#77 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:33 pm

Looks like 45 knts to me.
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#78 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:34 pm

If by tomorrow morning (9:00 UTC) it doesn't begin to intensify further, then I'd personally say that the chances might drop significantly. However, if it does, we may see the 50 knot storm materialize in the end, in my opinion.
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#79 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:16 pm

I'd say 35-40 knots. It's quite disorganized as of now, and the structure of the storm is weird and unusual, despite the center being at the deep convection. It has a quite impressive banding but the Central Dense Overcast [CDO] is messed up. Not used to seeing this type of tropical storms though.
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Re:

#80 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:33 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'd say 35-40 knots. It's quite disorganized as of now, and the structure of the storm is weird and unusual, despite the center being at the deep convection. It has a quite impressive banding but the Central Dense Overcast [CDO] is messed up. Not used to seeing this type of tropical storms though.


I think you're too use to tracking WPAC systems.

It IMO honestly looks better than the past 3 EPAC systems.
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