WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

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WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#1 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:06 pm

96W INVEST 140716 1800 6.1N 159.4E WPAC 15 NA

Very active WPAC continues with another invest in eastern Micronesia!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:57 am

Image

96W INVEST 140718 1200 9.1N 153.2E WPAC 15 1010

convection increasing...
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#3 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:28 am

so much activity in the west pacific now.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:59 am

Image

EURO develops down the road...

NWS Guam...

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BASED ON BOTH THE GFS40 AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENDED THE THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE EARLIER ON
SATURDAY MORNING RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO MADE IT PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THEN THE GFS40 BRINGS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION. THE ECMWF-HIRES TAKES IT
JUST A LITTLE SOUTH. DID NOT UPDATE WINDS AT THIS TIME BASED ON
THAT UNCERTAINTY. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE TRENDING A
LITTLE NORTHWARD...SO ADDED ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LIBERATION DAY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:02 pm

96W is looking better and has a small spin to it...

Image

Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/7ETE6M


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:51 am

LOW chance...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N 150.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 97 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 190343Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. AN OLDER 182321Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
WEAK, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (15 TO 20 KNOT) OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:54 am

HurricaneTracker2031 wrote:96W is looking better and has a small spin to it...



Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/7ETE6M


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Wow don't tell me this is going to ruin our 70th liberation day parade on Monday! :x

70 years liberated from the Imperial Army should be a time with family and friends, bbq and relaxation.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:12 am

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 190926
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
726 PM CHST SAT JUL 19 2014

PMZ161-171-172-192300-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
726 PM CHST SAT JUL 19 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND IN
CHUUK STATE...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 8.7 DEGREES NORTH
AND 150.3 DEGREES EAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 140 MILES NORTHWEST OF WENO
ISLAND AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO ULUL ATOLL. THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MONSOON SURGE ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN CHUUK STATE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF CHUUK
STATE THAT ARE WEST OF WENO ISLAND. SOME ATOLLS AND ISLANDS AT RISK
ARE WENO...ULUL...NAMONUITO...AND PULUWAT.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND COULD
AFFECT ISLANDS OF EASTERN YAP STATE BY ABOUT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. SOME
ISLANDS OF YAP STATE THAT MAY BE AT RISK FOR HEAVY WEATHER IN THE
COMING DAYS INCLUDE SATAWAL...LAMOTREK...WOLEAI AND EVENTUALLY FAIS
AND ULITHI.

MODERATELY STRONG MONSOON CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MICRONESIA AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES FOR
OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT IN WESTERN CHUUK STATE...MOST OF YAP STATE
AND ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. COMBINED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO
11 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA AND HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS NEAR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR WESTERN CHUUK
STATE AND EASTERN YAP STATE IN THE COMING DAYS.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:17 am

NWS GUAM:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS NOW LISTED ON THE ABPW BULLETIN
FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER AS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WAS UNLISTED
PREVIOUSLY SO THIS IS A CHANGE IN THE DEVELOPING DIRECTION. BASED
ON THIS WE INSERTED SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM THIS
MORNING WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. UPPED THAT TO 40 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL CONTROL RUN OF
THE GFS40 KEEPS US DRY FOR GUAM LIBERATION DAY...THE ENSEMBLE HAD
A MEAN RAINFALL OF 0.25 INCHES WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 0.45
INCHES. THE ECMWF-HIRES DUMPS 0.84 INCHES ON US DURING GUAM
LIBERATION DAY. NOT TO BE OUTDONE...THE NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE
MODEL DUMPS AN ALMOST INCREDIBLE 3 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 9
AM ON GUAM LIBERATION DAY. STILL...WITH THE GFS40 CONTROL RUN
BEING A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN A 10 PERCENT TWEAK UPWARD. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES
START DEVELOPING...WAVES COULD INCREASE EVEN FURTHER THAN WHAT IS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:20 am

Good night everyone. I worked double shift today and doing yet another double shift later on today sunday.

See you all and happy liberation day!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:23 pm

Up to Medium!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
150.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PASSES, INCLUDING A 191119Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL IMPROVED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
191118Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH 25 KNOT
WIND BARBS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:24 pm

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 192243
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
843 AM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

PMZ161-171-172-201100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
843 AM CHST SUN JUL 20 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING BETWEEN GUAM AND CHUUK...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 9.8 DEGREES NORTH
AND 148.2 DEGREES EAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
WENO ISLAND...ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL ATOLL...AND ABOUT
345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MONSOON SURGE ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN CHUUK STATE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY FOR THE ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE
THAT ARE WEST OF WENO ISLAND...INCLUDING ULUL...NAMONUITO...AND
PULUWAT.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
COULD AFFECT ISLANDS OF EASTERN YAP STATE BY ABOUT MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. SOME ISLANDS OF YAP STATE THAT MAY BE AT RISK FOR HEAVY
WEATHER IN THE COMING DAYS INCLUDE SATAWAL...LAMOTREK...WOLEAI...
FARAULEP AND EVENTUALLY FAIS AND ULITHI.

MODERATELY STRONG MONSOON CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA
AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES FOR OPERATORS OF
SMALL CRAFT IN WESTERN CHUUK STATE...MOST OF YAP STATE AND ACROSS
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. COMBINED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FEET
ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA AND HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS NEAR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR WESTERN CHUUK
STATE AND EASTERN YAP STATE IN THE COMING DAYS.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

$$

AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:53 am

Image

LLC southeast of Guam...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:58 am

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
149.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200333Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS FRAGEMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND SLOW
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#15 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Jul 20, 2014 4:50 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 145E NW 10 KT. --> http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

JMA Tropical Depression
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W - JMA - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 2:49 am

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210019Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, A 210020Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION
(05 TO 10 KNOT) WITH STRONGER WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAIR WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND SLOW CONSOLIDATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W - JMA - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 2:51 am

This disturbance brought us some heavy rains yesterday and only slight rain today. Breezy today :D
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W - JMA - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 2:56 am

Image

NWS Guam:

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SPARING GUAM'S LIBERATION DAY PARADE...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
96W IS MOVING STEADILY OFF TO THE WEST...AND IS BEING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SEAS HAVE APPARENTLY PEAKED AT
RITIDIAN AND IPAN BUOYS...BUT ARE STILL HITTING OVER 9 FEET AT
TIMES.

JTWC INVEST AREA 96W...WILL TRACK FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF GUAM BY TUESDAY EVENING AND IT WILL REINFORCE ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. THIS COULD INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINY WEATHER FOR BOTH LOCATIONS THRU MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE AND WINDS FOR YAP SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 96W. IF 96W DEVELOPS FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED ON THE FORECAST FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W - JMA - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:24 am

Shear continues to impact this disturbance and preventing development. LLC is at eastern edge of deep convection...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W - JMA - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:50 am

Interesting that GFS either drifts this to the southwest until it reaches 5N or right above palau or develops a new area of low pressure then drives it northwestward over the Philippine Sea where it strengthens to a Category 3 typhoon but weakens by the time it makes a direct hit to Okinawa...
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