WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 211700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 143.8E TO 11.4N 137.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
142.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
143.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 211128Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC, WITH
CORE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THERE ARE ALSO STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH, AWAY FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221700Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 220021

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 21/2332Z

C. XX.X

D. XXX.X

E. N/A/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1832Z 12.9N 140.6E MMHS
21/1945Z 13.1N 140.7E SSMS
21/2030Z 13.1N 140.3E SSMS
21/2104Z 13.0N 140.0E WIND


UEHARA


Looks badly sheared.

[euro6208]

Interesting discussion from NWS Guam about possible interaction with another circulation...

MODELS HANDLE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM IN A NON-STANDARD WAY. YOU WOULD EXPECT THE DISTURBANCE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. MOST MODELS HOWEVER WANT TO
TAKE THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION LOCATED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR
3N150E. AFTER THEY DO A BIT OF A DANCE WITH EACH OTHER THEY SEEM
TO COME TOGETHER. THEY THAN MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE
SEA WHERE THE COMBINED CIRCULATION BECOMES A RATHER LARGE MONSOON
DEPRESSION TYPE SYSTEM. THIS SEEMS AN ODD SOLUTION BUT AS
MENTIONED BEFORE MULTIPLE MODELS COME UP WITH THE SAME OUTCOME.
WILL WAIT AND SEE THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT ALWAYS A
GUARANTY OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...JTWC HIGH INVEST AREA 96W IS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING THIS MORNING NORTH OF YAP NEAR 13N140E. VERY DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING SURROUNDING THE CENTER FOR THE
PAST 10 HOURS. IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. IT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO PULL FRESH MONSOONAL WINDS
FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD PALAU AND YAP. IN THE SHORT
TERM...96W WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE WITH
SPORADIC CONVECTION ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE.
IN THE LONGER RUN... MODELS ARE TRANSFORMING 96W INTO A MONSOON
DEPRESSION OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND EVEN HINTING AT
INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MODELS ARE PREDICTING TORRENTIAL RAIN OF 6
TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PALAU AND YAP BY THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL AN
EXPANSION ON THE WIND FIELD OF 96W HAS OCCURRED...THIS SCENARIO
IS NOT PROBABLE AT THIS POINT. A MORE REALISTIC OUTCOME MIGHT BE
A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP INSTEAD. IT
COULD STILL SUSTAIN A WET MONSOONAL PATTERN ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THEREFORE...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
INTRODUCED A PROLONG PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU THURSDAY.

[dexterlabio]

MODELS HANDLE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM IN A NON-STANDARD WAY. YOU WOULD EXPECT THE DISTURBANCE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. MOST MODELS HOWEVER WANT TO
TAKE THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION LOCATED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR
3N150E. AFTER THEY DO A BIT OF A DANCE WITH EACH OTHER THEY SEEM
TO COME TOGETHER. THEY THAN MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE
SEA WHERE THE COMBINED CIRCULATION BECOMES A RATHER LARGE MONSOON
DEPRESSION TYPE SYSTEM. THIS SEEMS AN ODD SOLUTION BUT AS
MENTIONED BEFORE MULTIPLE MODELS COME UP WITH THE SAME OUTCOME.
WILL WAIT AND SEE THOUGH AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT ALWAYS A
GUARANTY OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN.

I agree with this. Models had shown a scenario of two systems combining into one large system in the past years but that scenario often doesn't happen, if not always... They also suck at predicting Fujiwara interaction, what more in this kind of scenario..

[euro6208]

Remains HIGH

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
140.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN ELONGATED
AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
220053Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LLCC, WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

JMA still calling this a depression. I wonder what DATA they use or do they even use any? This along with 97W never achieved suffient organization and convection to be even considered a depression plus add in the fact that dvorak never gave any rating...It's ok to have two major agencies forecasting for the WPAC but to mislead the public is something else...

Lack of infromation. Does anyone know if they have a discussion/prognostic reasoning?

[euro6208]

Down to MEDIUM

WTPN21 PGTW 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/211651Z JUL 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 211700)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 211700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 142.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
12.8N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOSS OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
CAUSING A DISLOCATION OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ARE CREATING
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF VWS (20 TO 30 KNOTS). A RECENT 221248Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC, BUT OVERALL LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE
TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS CIRCULATION TO 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, STRONG VWS, AND LACK OF MODEL
DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[supercane]

JMA does not have this listed as a tropical depression or even a low pressure area. See http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/.

[euro6208]

Down to LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
137.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
HIGHLY ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) CONTINUES TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE
TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM UNTIL PAST TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA still calling this a depression. I wonder what DATA they use or do they even use any? This along with 97W never achieved suffient organization and convection to be even considered a depression plus add in the fact that dvorak never gave any rating...It's ok to have two major agencies forecasting for the WPAC but to mislead the public is something else...

Lack of infromation. Does anyone know if they have a discussion/prognostic reasoning?

Sorry euro, but you always have a bias against the JMA, and in favor of the JTWC. You also tend to ignore and snub the JMA and whenever you post about it, it is against the agency. It is against the forum rules!

[euro6208]

JMA still calling this a depression. I wonder what DATA they use or do they even use any? This along with 97W never achieved suffient organization and convection to be even considered a depression plus add in the fact that dvorak never gave any rating...It's ok to have two major agencies forecasting for the WPAC but to mislead the public is something else...

Lack of infromation. Does anyone know if they have a discussion/prognostic reasoning?

Sorry euro, but you always have a bias against the JMA, and in favor of the JTWC. You also tend to ignore and snub the JMA and whenever you post about it, it is against the agency. Stop it now!

Have you looked at the DATA?

[cycloneye]

Ok not again that war.Stay on the 96W topic,thanks.

[ManilaTC]

I think we need to have a sticky board post regarding use of JMA and JTWC here in the Western Pacific.

Particularly we can edit this line in the Rules and Guidelines to be specifically for the Western Pacific forums.

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

The argument has gone overboard and has been the main content of almost each storm/invest this year.

[euro6208]

Latest...

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 240430Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. AN OLDER 240058Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (20 TO 25 KNOT) OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAIR WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. DUE TO MODERATE VWS AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Halong...



Peak



Landfall in Okinawa



Landfall south of Shanghai...

[ManilaTC]

And that stagnant low 995 mb in Western Luzon...

[euro6208]

NWS Guam:

A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CENTERED BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR FRIDAY MORNING TO ANOTHER
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA. COMPUTER MODELS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MICRONESIA WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AND CHANGEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.


FOR YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS
FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL BOATS. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET IN THE
AREAS SURROUNDING YAP AND KOROR ARE EXPECTED. IF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FURTHER INTENSIFIES...THEN SEA CONDITIONS COULD BUILD
EVEN HIGHER THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO
CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
MUDSLIDES ON THE HIGHER ISLANDS.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING TWO CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED ON THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC BELOW
10N. ONE CIRCULATION IS CLOSE TO PALAU AND THE OTHER CLOSE TO
CHUUK. YESTERDAY IT SEEMED THAT THE CHUUK CIRCULATION...WHICH WAS
DOMINANT...WOULD BE THE MAJOR PLAYER. IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE
PALAU CIRCULATION WOULD GET ABSORBED INTO THE BIGGER CHUUK ONE.
NATURE HAD OTHER IDEAS AND AT THIS TIME THE PALAU CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME DOMINANT. 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE THE LARGEST OVER
PALAU AND YAP. CHUUKS 24 HOUR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CHANGE IS
POSITIVE. THIS SHOWS THAT AT THIS TIME THE PALAU CIRCULATION IS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CHUUK
CIRCULATION ON THURSDAY NIGHTS SCATTEROMETER CHART WHILE IT IS
EASY TO FIND THE PALAU ONE. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO HAVE AGREED ON
THIS CHANGE. YESTERDAY THERE WERE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS BUT TODAY THEY SEEM TO BE AGREEING ON THE PALAU
CIRCULATION. THEY TAKE THE PALAU CIRCULATION NORTHWARD INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD IT WILL
DRAG THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE MARIANAS STARTING SATURDAY. AS
THE MONSOON TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND IT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL EQUAL A
FAIR CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ONE THOUGHT THOUGH IS WHAT IF THE
CIRCULATION...AS IT MOVES INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA... TAKES THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT? COULD WE SEE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND? WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE SIGNAL IN THE MODELS IS TOO STRONG TO
TAKE IT OUT.

[euro6208]

Very active monsoon trough affecting the islands with winds and rains...

[euro6208]

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N
135.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING AND DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 250418Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND FAIR WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO MODERATE VWS AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.