WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#121 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:43 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.9N
126.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A MONSOON DEPRESSION. RECENT AMSU-B DATA INDICATES THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THIS PORTION OF THE ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH INTO AN AREA OF HIGH (25-35 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW
PROVIDES THE VENTILATION NEEDED FOR THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO EVEN
HIGHER VWS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE SUBSIDENCE AND
REDUCE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 987
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#122 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:05 am

euro6208 wrote:JTWC does not issue warnings on subtropical and monsoon systems period...


they DO issue warnings on subtropical if assets are being threatened

as for not issuing warnings on this.. THIS IS A TROPICAL STORM. Nothing subtropical about this. I stand by my previous comments
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#123 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:20 am

Alyono wrote:
euro6208 wrote:JTWC does not issue warnings on subtropical and monsoon systems period...


they DO issue warnings on subtropical if assets are being threatened

as for not issuing warnings on this.. THIS IS A TROPICAL STORM. Nothing subtropical about this. I stand by my previous comments


oh ok, let's try monsoon system...
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#124 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:23 pm

http://www.weather.com

Monsoon Depression

The term has gained ascendancy in use to refer to a broad tropical cyclonic circulation characterized by 1) its large size, where the outermost closed isobar may have a diameter on the order of 600 n mi (1000 km); 2) a loosely organized cluster of deep convective elements, which may form an elongated band of deep convection in the east semicircle; 3) a low- level wind distribution that features a 100 n mi (200 km) diameter light-wind core, which may be surrounded by a band of gales or contain a highly asymmetric wind field; and 4) a lack of a distinct cloud system center. Most monsoon depressions that develop in the western North Pacific eventually acquire persistent central convection and accelerated core winds, marking their transitions into conventional tropical cyclones.


Clearly this system has all 4 characteristic...
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#125 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:27 pm

but they are still a TC.

This has been debated extensively during the past 24 hours by the pros, not just here but in other places, and the overwhelming conclusion is JTWC should be warning on this system
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#126 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:31 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#127 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:40 pm

First to keep on topic, 00Z advisories.
WTPQ20 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 32.1N 124.9E POOR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 130NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 34.3N 124.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 35.5N 125.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 050000UTC 36.6N 127.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ20 BABJ 020300 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 020300 UTC
00HR 32.4N 124.7E 982HPA 25M/S
30KTS WINDS 400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 12KM/H
P+06HR 33.2N 124.5E 982HPA 25M/S
P+12HR 33.9N 124.3E 982HPA 25M/S
P+18HR 34.4N 124.3E 985HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 34.9N 124.4E 990HPA 20M/S
P+36HR 35.8N 124.9E 995HPA 18M/S
P+48HR 36.6N 125.4E 998HPA 16M/S
P+60HR 37.3N 125.9E 998HPA 16M/S
P+72HR 39.4N 129.9E 1000HPA 14M/S=

KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1412 NAKRI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 020000UTC 32.1N 125.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 021200UTC 33.8N 124.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT
24HR
POSITION 030000UTC 34.9N 124.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 031200UTC 35.8N 124.7E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 040000UTC 36.6N 125.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
60HR
POSITION 041200UTC 37.2N 125.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

(Edited to put in correct KMA advisory)
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#128 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:59 pm

RL3AO, I don't think your Venn diagram is correct; the majority of monsoon gyres are not tropical cyclones, although the monsoon depressions that form on its periphery may transition into traditional tropical cyclones or, alternatively, the gyre itself may transition to a tropical cyclone. See for instance the following blog posts from HKO:
From monsoon depression to tropical cyclone: http://www.hko.gov.hk/blog/en/archives/00000149.htm (looks at TS Jebi)
How much do you know about monsoon depression: http://www.hko.gov.hk/blog/en/archives/00000142.htm

And the following papers from Weather and Forecasting:
Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019%3C0776:ROTMGI%3E2.0.CO;2
Description of a Monsoon Gyre and Its Effects on the Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific during August 1991http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009%3C0640:DOAMGA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Alyono wrote:but they are still a TC.

This has been debated extensively during the past 24 hours by the pros, not just here but in other places, and the overwhelming conclusion is JTWC should be warning on this system


Alyono, Instead of the "LOLs," how about
(a) giving a link to a "pro" with an analysis or a board with a discussion, and
(b) completing the following sentence: Nakri is not a monsoon depression or gyre and is instead a tropical cyclone because __. (Note your prior statement that it is not subtropical is irrelevant, as JTWC has never asserted this).
For what it's worth, I agree with the idea that JTWC should be issuing warnings on this system, but I can at least see their point of view.
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#129 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:08 pm

This is quite interesting...

TPPN10 PGTW 020338 COR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (NAKRI)

B. 02/0232Z

C. 32.4N

D. 124.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. BROAD .55 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF
2.0. MET AGREES; PT WAS 2.5. DBO DT. COR ISSUED TO EVALUATE
INTENSITY DURING AN OFF-CYCLE WITH CONSIDERATION FOR LATEST
ASCAT PASS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG
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#130 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:24 pm

Latest ASCAT pass:
Image

Latest IR:
Image
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#131 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:22 am

THE THIRD TIME.

WTPN21 PGTW 020530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32.1N 124.9E TO 35.7N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 020500Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 124.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 30.3N
125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, KOREA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY FROM THE SOUTH
QUADRANT INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION,
HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND THE CURRENT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 90 TO 110 NM BASED
ON A 020159Z ASCAT IMAGE. A 020438Z NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 011943Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION SUPPORTS A
WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND SHOWS A DEFINED WARM ANOMALY OF +2C. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 27C. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL,
THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD, RE-CURVING INTO THE CENTRAL
KOREAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
987 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030530Z.//
NNNN
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#132 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:34 am

12W TWELVE 140802 0000 32.1N 124.9E WPAC 35 996
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#133 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:15 am

NAKRI is a 40-knot tropical storm per the JTWC.

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020521 AUG 14//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 32.7N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 33.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 34.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 35.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 38.4N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 020521Z AUG 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 020530). REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#134 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Aug 02, 2014 3:22 am

They must have been under some pressure to upgrade it since it really does not look any more like a traditional tropical cyclone than it did previously.
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#135 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:39 am

supercane wrote:RL3AO, I don't think your Venn diagram is correct; the majority of monsoon gyres are not tropical cyclones, although the monsoon depressions that form on its periphery may transition into traditional tropical cyclones or, alternatively, the gyre itself may transition to a tropical cyclone. See for instance the following blog posts from HKO:
From monsoon depression to tropical cyclone: http://www.hko.gov.hk/blog/en/archives/00000149.htm (looks at TS Jebi)
How much do you know about monsoon depression: http://www.hko.gov.hk/blog/en/archives/00000142.htm

And the following papers from Weather and Forecasting:
Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019%3C0776:ROTMGI%3E2.0.CO;2
Description of a Monsoon Gyre and Its Effects on the Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific during August 1991http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009%3C0640:DOAMGA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Alyono wrote:but they are still a TC.

This has been debated extensively during the past 24 hours by the pros, not just here but in other places, and the overwhelming conclusion is JTWC should be warning on this system


Alyono, Instead of the "LOLs," how about
(a) giving a link to a "pro" with an analysis or a board with a discussion, and
(b) completing the following sentence: Nakri is not a monsoon depression or gyre and is instead a tropical cyclone because __. (Note your prior statement that it is not subtropical is irrelevant, as JTWC has never asserted this).
For what it's worth, I agree with the idea that JTWC should be issuing warnings on this system, but I can at least see their point of view.


If you would like to see the discussions, sign up for the tropical storms list. E-mails there are not supposed to be spread beyond that mailing list. Therefore, I will not be copying them word for word here
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#136 Postby Equilibrium » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:26 am

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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#137 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:57 am

I see we now have Tropical Storm Nakri as per JTWC...It should start adding valuable ACE to the WPAC...
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#138 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 02, 2014 10:08 am

WDPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND THE CURRENT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 90 TO 110
NM BASED ON A 020159Z ASCAT IMAGE. A 021204Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM. A 020437Z AMSU CROSS-
SECTION SUPPORTS A WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND SHOWS A DEFINED WARM ANOMALY
OF +2C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT 25 TO 26C. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS NAKRI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SHARPLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE STR AND INTO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS
12W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST,
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA WITH THE REMNANTS EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA AFTER TAU 48.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#139 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:28 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 34.2N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 35.8N 125.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 041800UTC 37.3N 128.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTKO20 RKSL 021800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1412 NAKRI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 021800UTC 34.0N 124.8E
MOVEMENT NNE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 030600UTC 35.0N 125.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 031800UTC 35.7N 125.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
36HR
POSITION 040600UTC 36.2N 126.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC
00HR 34.3N 124.8E 988HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
380KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNE 10KM/H
P+06HR 34.7N 124.9E 992HPA 18M/S
P+12HR 35.1N 125.1E 992HPA 18M/S
P+18HR 35.5N 125.5E 992HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 35.9N 126.0E 992HPA 18M/S
P+36HR 36.7N 127.3E 996HPA 15M/S
P+48HR 37.7N 129.3E 1002HPA 13M/S=
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supercane
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#140 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:33 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 35.0N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 36.2N 126.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 050000UTC 38.6N 130.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ30 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTKO20 RKSL 030000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 1412 NAKRI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030000UTC 34.9N 124.9E
MOVEMENT N 8KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 031200UTC 35.3N 125.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 040000UTC 35.9N 125.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 994HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

WTPQ20 BABJ 030000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC
00HR 35.0N 125.0E 987HPA 16M/S
MOVE NE 13KM/H
P+12HR 36.0N 126.2E 990HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 36.8N 127.7E 995HPA 12M/S=
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