WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

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supercane
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#141 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:06 am

Catchup from 06Z advisories; only JMA has it as a TS:
WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 35.4N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 37.5N 128.0E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ20 BABJ 030600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC
00HR 35.2N 125.3E 987HPA 16M/S
MOVE NE 10KM/H
P+12HR 35.7N 125.7E 990HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 37.0N 127.6E 995HPA 12M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 030600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 1412 NAKRI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030600UTC 35.2N 125.0E
MOVEMENT NNE 4KT
PRES 990HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
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#142 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:07 am

12Z advisories; JMA still holding on to this as a TS:
WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 35.6N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 38.0N 129.5E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ20 BABJ 031200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC
00HR 35.5N 125.6E 990HPA 16M/S
MOVE NE 19KM/H
P+12HR 36.3N 126.9E 992HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 37.8N 129.7E 995HPA 12M/S=
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#143 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:10 am

JTWC 15Z:
WTPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 35.7N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 36.7N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 37.7N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 39.0N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 36.0N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z,
040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W
(HALONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#144 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:43 am

Interest in this sure died off once Halong got going and JTWC finally agreed to classify Nakri. :lol:
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Re:

#145 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:50 am

somethingfunny wrote:Interest in this sure died off once Halong got going and JTWC finally agreed to classify Nakri. :lol:


sigh of relief probrably that it was upgraded lol
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#146 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:51 am

Latest...

WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 12W REMAINS A VERY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA (NEAR 600 NM DIAMETER); HOWEVER, ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031257Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT A
WEAKENING AND BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
KOREA INDICATE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP
NEAR 993 MB. AS EXPECTED, SURFACE WINDS AT KUNSAN HAVE REMAINED WEAK
DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND
METOP-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEAK
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TD 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD NAKRI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TD 12W IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA WITH THE REMNANTS
EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

#147 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:25 pm

euro6208 wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:Interest in this sure died off once Halong got going and JTWC finally agreed to classify Nakri. :lol:

sigh of relief probrably that it was upgraded lol


More likely because it has weakened and there are stronger storms elsewhere.

JMA finally joined everyone else in downgrading this to TD at 18Z, JTWC wrote final warning at 21Z
WTPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1412 NAKRI (1412)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 36N 126E
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA =

WTPQ20 BABJ 031800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC
00HR 35.8N 125.9E 990HPA 16M/S
MOVE NE 18KM/H
P+12HR 36.9N 127.6E 992HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 38.2N 131.1E 995HPA 12M/S=

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING////
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 36.1N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 36.1N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 37.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 38.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 36.4N 126.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
NORTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHED CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-EXPOSED,
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN COAST OF KOREAN PENISULA.
TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
THE REMANTS EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10
FEET. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

JMA lists at 00Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 37N 127E ENE 10 KT.
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#148 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:01 am

And Nakri is done, with no one writing advisories and JMA not even carrying it as a depression on the weather map. Can the mods change the title to remnants?
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