WPAC: NAKRI - Severe Tropical Storm

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ManilaTC
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 525
Age: 40
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:13 am
Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
Contact:

#41 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:40 am

BEST TRACK: 96W INVEST 140725 0600 6.6N 135.1E WPAC 20 1003
0 likes   
The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.

WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#42 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:01 am

looks like there is a circulation with sufficient deep convection to warrant a TD classification
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#43 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:33 am

Latest discussion says environment more favorable with relaxation of shear and robust outflow.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
134.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 135.1E, APPROXIMATELY 34 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 250840Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
TIGHTLY-WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#44 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:34 am

basically, that discussion described the very definition of a TD. I do not understand why they are not upgrading this obvious TD
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#45 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:43 am

Image

Halong

Image

Rapidly deepens east of Taiwan

Image

Landfall in China...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#46 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:10 am

Up to 1.5!

TXPQ21 KNES 250911
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 25/0832Z

C. 6.7N

D. 134.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#47 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:59 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W REMAINS EAST OF KOROR
BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOUND WEST OF KOROR WATERS.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AT KOROR AND
YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF 96W AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
USHER IN DRIER WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP A LITTLE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM INVEST 96W WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR YAP AND KOROR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SWELL GENERATED BY A RECENT MONSOON SURGE AND 96W WILL KEEP
SURF HAZARDOUS ON CHUUK THROUGH MONDAY.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#48 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 26, 2014 2:27 am

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N
135.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AND
POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260112Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ELONGATED LLCC, WHILE THE CORE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS IN KOROR ALSO INDICATES A
STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST AS REPORTED WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 15 TO
25 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHLY DIVERGENT WESTWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3530
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#49 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:43 am

Center is kinda sheared off to the east of the convection.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#50 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:24 am

Latest:

20140726 0832 10.6 -134.0 T1.5/1.5 96W 96W
20140726 0232 9.7 -133.5 T1.5/1.5 96W 96W
20140725 2032 9.0 -134.9 T1.0/1.5 96W 96W
20140725 1432 7.9 -135.3 T1.5/1.5 96W 96W

TXPQ21 KNES 260909
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 26/0832Z

C. 10.6N

D. 134.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH LLC WITHIN 75NM OF
OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM FOR SHEAR MATRIX DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/0559Z 10.5N 134.2E SSMI


...SALEMI

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#51 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:47 am

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 133E WNW SLOWLY.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#52 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:51 am

Ouch...

System undergoing moderate shear of 20 knots. Organization has slightly improved though but convection remains somewhat weak...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#53 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:01 am

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
133.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WHILE A 270134Z ASCAT PASS CONTINUES TO REVEAL STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WESTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE UNCHANGED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#54 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:16 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0 likes   

HurricaneTracker2031
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 248
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 7:20 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, FL, USA
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#55 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:57 am

96W may become better organized later this week. GFS indicates a broad closed low tropical cyclone (995mb) in the next 48 hours. We will see what comes out of this. I don't expect anything major at this time.

Image
From TropicsTidbits.com



Synopsis for Western Pacific and other basins: http://goo.gl/VB1L1V


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
SHORT VERSION OF DISCLAIMER: THIS SITE LINK BELOW IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECASTING OFFICE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO MAKE ANY EMERGENCY DECISIONS....

http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#56 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 27, 2014 5:19 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 271800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 142E 39N 150E
43N 146E 50N 156E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 32N 170E 34N 155E 34N
142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 55N 139E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 43N 147E ENE 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 43N 174E NORTH 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 38N 128E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 26N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 43N 147E TO 44N 149E 44N 151E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 151E TO 41N 151E 36N 145E 32N 135E.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 151E TO 44N 156E 42N 161E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#57 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:44 pm

Downgraded to LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
134.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM NORTH
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
INCREASINGLY LINEAR CONVECTION STREAMING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A RECENT 271244Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLCC
IS ORIENTED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AND IS BROADLY DEFINED
WITH CENTRAL WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

27/0832 UTC 15.9N 134.2E TOO WEAK 96W
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#58 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:51 pm

Can't find any LLC and looks like it's opened up...

Although this has an large anticyclone over it which is providing low shear. Models still developing this...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12512
Age: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#59 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:55 am

WWJP25 RJTD 280600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 146E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 35N 160E 36N 150E 43N 146E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 42N 151E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 45N 159E ENE 20 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 45N 173E NORTH 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 19N 133E NNW 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 151E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 38N 134E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 28N 159E EAST SLOWLY.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 159E TO 43N 163E 40N 166E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 159E TO 40N 156E 35N 148E 32N 135E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15692
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (96W)

#60 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 4:20 am

Upgraded to MEDIUM. ASCAT showing 15-25 knots and is supported by observations in Palau and Yap...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERIES WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND CENTRAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED. A
270115Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK
CORE WINDS (5 TO 15 KNOTS) WHILE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
REMAIN STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU AND YAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests