WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:24 am

EP, 91, 2014071918, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1042W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014072000, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1054W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014072006, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1068W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014072012, , BEST, 0, 91N, 1082W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:42 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#3 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:58 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Some slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Brennan
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#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:07 pm

Actually looks sort of cute by itself on the latest frame but I really don't know if this will go very far.
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:15 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Actually looks sort of cute by itself on the latest frame but I really don't know if this will go very far.


Shear for now is low. It should be Fausto 3.0.
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#6 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:29 pm

Yay, more weak Tropical Storm fish!
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:46 pm

Image

latest visible
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#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:54 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

latest visible


Not bad for a lemon.
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#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:01 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 07/20/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 30 26 22 19 16
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 30 26 22 19 16
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 20 17 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 13 15 15 19 21 26 34 40 41 40
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 4 2 1 3 4
SHEAR DIR 322 313 317 321 316 299 283 278 253 251 258 270 275
SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 152 154 156 159 157 153 150 148 146 141 135
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 5
700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 67 68 66 65 63 68 69 67 67 63
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 10 9 10 9 3 -10 -17 -19 -8 -2 4
200 MB DIV 38 21 30 26 2 -6 8 33 41 62 40 28 42
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 1 0 1 -4 0 -3 -1
LAND (KM) 1148 1185 1230 1282 1348 1488 1589 1717 1844 2019 2204 2376 2220
LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1
LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.4 110.6 111.9 113.2 116.0 118.9 121.6 124.3 127.0 129.7 132.3 134.7
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 27 29 32 35 35 41 36 34 15 11 32 24 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/20/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/20/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:30 pm

From 18z:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 37 36 32 29 25 20
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 37 36 32 29 25 20
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 33 34 34 32 29 25 21 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 11 15 17 17 16 22 27 33 36 37 35 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 4 6 4 4 7
SHEAR DIR 321 320 324 321 314 292 287 282 266 263 276 262 261
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 27.9 27.3 27.1

EP, 91, 2014072018, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1095W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:04 pm

Unfortunately for this, shear is increasing. It decreases one knot in between and at the end of the period but by then, we don't know what other negative conditions it will need to face.
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#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:18 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Unfortunately for this, shear is increasing. It decreases one knot in between and at the end of the period but by then, we don't know what other negative conditions it will need to face.


Anything below 15-20 knts is favorable. There are no additional negative conditions aside from it's proximity to the ITCZ/
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#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 4:14 pm

Actually looks good for a 20% invest, with fair banding, aside from slightly warmer cloud tops.
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#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 4:35 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Actually looks good for a 20% invest, with fair banding, aside from slightly warmer cloud tops.


Agreed; it's not that far off from being classifiable. Odv needs a closed LLC though.
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#15 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:04 pm

Remains the same.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has changed little during the past few hours. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake
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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:05 pm

I would have given it 30/30 personally.
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:01 pm

EP, 91, 2014072100, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1107W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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#18 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:05 pm

I personally don't think it looks better, with convection lost because of the time of the day. But if it is just diurnal minimum, it should increase again tomorrow morning.
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:06 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I personally don't think it looks better, with convection lost because of the time of the day. But if it is just diurnal minimum, it should increase again tomorrow morning.


Yea, though if it does nothing for the next day or so, time will run out.
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:05 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with
an area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Some slow development of this system is still
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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