WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

hurricanes1234 · #21 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:57 am

Yet another bust from a stupid invest.

#22 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:57 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211149
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although convective activity
remains limited, some slow development of this system is still
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

TheStormExpert · #23 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:47 am

How come all of the sudden the East Pacific has been struggling to even produce a TD/weak TS when during the first 2-4 weeks of the season we were able to produce two early season record-breaking full blown Cat.4 hurricanes?

Hurricane_Luis · #24 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:10 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Yet another bust from a stupid invest.

You cant expect every invest that is numbered to form a Cat 3 or 4 Hurricane. If it frustrates you so much go and have a peak in what is happening in other basins. The Western Pacific is a good one to look at.

#25 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:40 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:How come all of the sudden the East Pacific has been struggling to even produce a TD/weak TS when during the first 2-4 weeks of the season we were able to produce two early season record-breaking full blown Cat.4 hurricanes?

More shear off the coast of MX. Also, activity in El Ninos shift a bit west in July.

#26 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:41 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decreased this morning
in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so as
it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Steve820 · #27 Postby **Steve820** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:26 pm

This probably won't develop. It's too disorganized, but if it does develop (which I don't think will happen) it'll just be yet another weakling. Geez, when is the EPac going to produce another hurricane?

hurricanes1234 · #28 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 3:50 pm

Steve820 wrote:This probably won't develop. It's too disorganized, but if it does develop (which I don't think will happen) it'll just be yet another weakling. Geez, when is the EPac going to produce another hurricane?

All of them since Elida have been following the same pattern, remaining around 10°N and getting problems from the ITCZ.

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:40 pm

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be
slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

#30 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:16 pm

Steve820 wrote:This probably won't develop. It's too disorganized, but if it does develop (which I don't think will happen) it'll just be yet another weakling. Geez, when is the EPac going to produce another hurricane?

I'd watch the system behind it. It has more potential.

#31 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:56 pm

Not bad.

#32 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:48 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

#33 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:46 pm

Everyone stopped paying attention, but

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near a small area of
low pressure located about 1125 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

hurricanes1234 · #34 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:51 pm

How unexpected! Now let's see how far this goes.

hurricanes1234 · #35 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:51 pm

How unexpected! Now let's see how far this goes.

#36 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:58 pm

EP, 91, 2014072218, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1214W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

#37 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:02 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 29 33 37 39 41 41 39
V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 29 33 37 39 41 41 39
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 28 29 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 10 11 9 7 4 9 9 13 11 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 -1 2 4 0 1 4 8 4
SHEAR DIR 270 270 254 242 249 246 290 300 293 306 324 331 323
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7

#38 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:06 pm

Shear shouldn't be a problem for the next few days. Let's see if it develops. And if it develops, can it break the Tropical Storm trend?

#39 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:07 pm

The thing it has in it's favor is it's southern location.

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:36 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure located about 1125 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

Re:

Re:

Re:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

Re:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

Who is online