WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

The thing it has in it's favor is it's southern location.

Yea, it'll likely be a soutern clipper, but not deep deep tropics like Fausto or Wali. More like Henriette 13 or Celia 10 in latitude.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized this evening.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and this system is expected to become a tropical depression during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and this system is expected to become a tropical depression during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 48 45 43 39 38 36
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 48 45 43 39 38 36
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 26
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 12 8 10 10 11 10 6 13 16 22 17 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 1 1 8 5 3 0 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 256 263 267 276 278 280 306 316 305 304 312 316 308
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF brings this to 60 knts.

[TheStormExpert]

Never seen the TWO map this cluttered!

[cycloneye]

A broad low located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development and this system is expected to
become a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[weathernerdguy]

is all this development from the MJO?

[hurricanes1234]

I think we could see something from at either 3:00 UTC tomorrow or 9:00 UTC tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm at a hotel and can't load images, but why is this not a TD?

[Yellow Evan]

is all this development from the MJO?

I think so.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a broad low located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development and this system is
expected to become a tropical depression during the next couple of
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

I think this may be classified at 03z, FTR.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like no upgrade. We'll see if it becomes a TD tomorrow.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

is all this development from the MJO?

And a bypassing kelvin wave (which I just posted about in Ex-TD Two's thread).

[hurricanes1234]

No upgrade yet?

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system located about 1550 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little
overnight. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Still puzzled why this is not a TD.

[Alyono]

Still puzzled why this is not a TD.

not seeing any signs of a well defined surface center on visible imagery. Still looks like a broad trough

there does appear to be some strong westerly shear nearby, possibly from the outflow of the disturbance ahead of it

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area located about 1600 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little
this morning and the associated thunderstorm activity is currently
not well organized. However, environmental conditions still appear
conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Upper-level winds
are forecast to limit the development chances by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.