WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

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#321 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:28 pm

PQ23 KNES 071513
TCSWNP

A. 07E (GENEVIEVE)

B. 07/1432Z

C. 15.4N

D. 178.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=7.0.
MET=6.0 WITH PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#322 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:17 pm

Genevieve is officially the strongest typhoon in the WPAC this year, with JMA upgrading it to 'Violent' with 10-min sustained winds of 110 knots.
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Equilibrium

#323 Postby Equilibrium » Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:40 pm

These ready made typhoons ain’t as interesting as watching the birth of a system evolve in the wspac basin.



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#324 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:47 pm

00Z advisories:
WTPQ20 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1413 GENEVIEVE (1413)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 16.2N 176.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 20.0N 175.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 100000UTC 26.1N 174.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 110000UTC 31.8N 169.6E 210NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

Image

WTPQ20 BABJ 080000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY GENEVIEVE 1413 (1413) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC
00HR 16.2N 176.6E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
230KM SOUTHEAST
230KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 17.6N 175.6E 920HPA 60M/S
P+24HR 19.9N 175.5E 920HPA 60M/S
P+36HR 22.5N 175.5E 925HPA 58M/S
P+48HR 25.7N 174.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 29.0N 172.4E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 31.2N 169.4E 950HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 34.0N 165.6E 965HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 33.7N 163.1E 985HPA 25M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 080000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 1413 GENEVIEVE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080000UTC 16.3N 176.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 090000UTC 20.0N 174.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT
48HR
POSITION 100000UTC 26.1N 172.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 110000UTC 30.9N 169.2E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 120000UTC 34.4N 165.3E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
120HR
POSITION 130000UTC 37.6N 161.0E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
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#325 Postby Steve820 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:51 pm

Genevieve is looking very impressive! I can't believe that a storm that only peaked as a weak TS and was struggling for nearly 2 weeks would become a Category 5 typhoon this quick! It also crossed into 3 basins. That's just insane, if you think about it.
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#326 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:20 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 07E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 044
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 176.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 176.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.6N 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.9N 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.5N 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6N 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.0N 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.6N 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 35.6N 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 176.4E.
SUPER TYPHOON 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM WEST
OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (GENEVIEVE) WARNING
NR 43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM
WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN 11 NM EYE. A
071826Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON
CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STY 07E REMAINS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. STY 07E IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07E IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
EAST AND BECOMES POLEWARD ORIENTED. STY GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. BY TAU 72, STY 07E IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
ITS WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECASTER PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, LEADING TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#327 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:55 pm

As absolutely stunning as Genevieve's rate of intensification has been, I don't think that it was really just a tropical storm yesterday or a tropical depression the day before - it was clearly strengthening at a steady pace before bombing out into a major typhoon and I don't think that the official advisories reflected that. I want to be clear that I don't fault CPHC for this at all - they have been very preoccupied! Perhaps some things will be adjusted in the postseason reanalysis though.
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Re:

#328 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:58 pm

supercane wrote:
Image


Hey, there's that west bend we were looking for! Perhaps sea surface temperatures will remain marginally supportive if Genevieve sticks to the southern edge of that forecast cone, and maybe this will threaten Russia in the end after all. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#329 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:23 pm

Absolutely incredible...Still a category 5 of 140 knots?

I hate to say it but i think this is stronger than Halong...and thus is the strongest so far this year in any basin...
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#330 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:48 pm

Question. This storm went from EPAC to CPAC now WPAC....can it come close..I dont even know what that is of longest running storm?
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Re:

#331 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:51 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Question. This storm went from EPAC to CPAC now WPAC....can it come close..I dont even know what that is of longest running storm?


Unlikely to come close to John, 1994 ... 31 days

Image
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#332 Postby Equilibrium » Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:36 am

euro6208 wrote:Absolutely incredible...Still a category 5 of 140 knots?

I hate to say it but i think this is stronger than Halong...and thus is the strongest so far this year in any basin...



On par with Gillian but stronger ?
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#333 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:53 am

Genevieve looks a little pinched tonight, also moving almost due north.

Image
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#334 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:01 am

Image

Super Typhoon Genevieve weakens to 130 knots...

WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON O7E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING
NR 46//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 839 NM
WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 14 NM EYE. A 081133Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 07E REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07E IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
UNUSUALLY STRONG STEERING FLOW, ENHANCED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION (GYRE-LIKE PATTERN), WHICH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. STY 07E THEN TRACKS WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE STR WITH TRACK SPEEDS OF 18
TO 20 KNOTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. STY 07E IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD WITHIN ZONAL MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT WILL CREATE A SHORT-
LIVED BREAK IN THE STR. UNFORTUNATELY, STY IS UNLIKELY TO RE-CURVE
AS THIS TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM WITH A LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WIDE
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT (GFS,
UKMO), A FAST WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL HIGH
(ECMWF), A WEAK RE-CURVE (COAMPS-TC) AND A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
(NAVGEM, GFDN). DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST DEPICTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS STY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF
30N DUE TO COOLER SST RANGING FROM 24 TO 25C. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#335 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:07 am

Impressive run though. Held 140kt for 24 hours.
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#336 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:12 am

Ever since this moved into the WPAC, updates from Best Track has been very very slow and not updating well...

I wonder why...
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#337 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 1:05 pm

I would guess the peak intensity was at 0000Z, and I would set it at 145 kt personally, since that is when it looked its best.
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Re: WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Typhoon

#338 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Aug 08, 2014 1:34 pm

Spectacular satellite image of Super Typhoon Genevieve from VIIRS.

Image
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#339 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:33 pm

Late Post: Genevieve is NO LONGER a Super Typhoon, but it remains to be a strong category 4 typhoon.
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#340 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:58 pm

Genevieve is not only moving north, but even a bit NNE and as of last frame still is. For a laugh, I want it to move back behind that 180º line and make the CPHC get involved again :lol: :lol: .

RL3AO wrote:Lets go easy with the Haiyan comparisons. This doesn't even qualify for CMG around the center much less CDG.

I'd like to learn more about this CMG and CDG :wink: :lol: .

WeatherGuesser wrote:Gang, can we quit with embedding mega file sized animations? Links will do fine for those who want to view them.

I vote nay on this :) .
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