ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:17 am

AL, 92, 2014072012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 346W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014072018, , BEST, 0, 109N, 362W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014072100, , BEST, 0, 112N, 380W, 30, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014072106, , BEST, 0, 114N, 398W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2014072112, , BEST, 0, 114N, 416W, 25, 1013, DB
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#2 Postby canes04 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:22 am

Not surprised to see the invest! Looking good this morning.
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#3 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:38 am

Lol, I was writing a post before the thread was locked about they should go ahead declaring it an Invest.

No problems with wind shear for the next 72 hrs or so. If it is able to stay close to the Monsoon trough it may survive in the dry surrounding environment that it is in.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#4 Postby blp » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:08 am

Wow! This is looking good this morning. Hello....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#5 Postby blp » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:09 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#6 Postby canes04 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:17 am

Must stay south for a few days to have a shot.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:19 am

JB's take:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 13m

CLose up of Atlantic Wave with nice looking circulation, also hint of open spot near center. #interesting
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#8 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:30 am

Looks impressive this morning, possibly even qualifies as a TD if we could confirm that the well-defined circulation extends down to the surface. Models indicate semi-favorable conditions for development for the next 2 days. Increasing wind shear is predicted by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean on Thursday. That wind shear will likely rip it apart. The disturbance would have to track over South America to avoid the shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:31 am

Interesting as JB says.

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#10 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:37 am

Saved loop, showing the clear spot in the middle:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#11 Postby blp » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:53 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks impressive this morning, possibly even qualifies as a TD if we could confirm that the well-defined circulation extends down to the surface. Models indicate semi-favorable conditions for development for the next 2 days. Increasing wind shear is predicted by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean on Thursday. That wind shear will likely rip it apart. The disturbance would have to track over South America to avoid the shear.


I am quite surprised, I thought the dry air west of 40 was going to destroy it. It seems that it has been insulated from the dry air somewhat by the moisture of the ITCZ. Also, the system is quite small so I wonder if the models are having a hard time with it.
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#12 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:24 am

Very impressive looking for this time of year and that far out in the Atlantic.
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#13 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:28 am

If nothing else it will moisten the environment for following waves. Seems a little early for the train to start though..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#14 Postby abajan » Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:57 am

Oh my! :eek:
I new of the existence of this system but didn't think it would have developed quite so quickly. Bears watching, I guess.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#15 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:18 am

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts
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#16 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:33 am

Wasn't expecting this much to even amount from this area. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#17 Postby canes04 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:37 am

Looks like a TD at this time. Any thoughts from the pro mets
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#18 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:43 am

It'll be interesting to see if the NHC actually upgrades this to TD status if and when it's ready due to the proximity of the unfavorable conditions in its path.
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#19 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:20 am

Image
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#20 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:33 am

IS THAT AN EYE? :lol: On a serious note, 92L looks close to depression status and could dodge the unfavorable conditions in its path. The intensity forecasts surprisingly suggest a strengthening tropical storm in the next couple of days.
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