ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

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Gustywind
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#161 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:15 am

Given SSD... slight increasing numbers

20140723 0545 14.2 52.1 T1.5/1.5 02L NONAME
20140722 2345 13.1 49.9 T1.0/1.5 02L NONAME
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#162 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:23 am

From Accuweather

Tropical Depression Two Shifts West Across the Atlantic

Alex Sosnowski

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

July 23, 2014; 4:50 AM

:rarrow: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... l/30828170

Tropical Depression Two will continue to move westward across the Atlantic and could become the second tropical to impact populated areas in 2014.

The depression is small and weak according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"There is only a small window of opportunity for this system to become a named tropical storm," Kottlowski said.

If a window does open up for Tropical Depression Two to strengthen into a storm, it would be named Bertha, or the second name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms for 2014.

Later this week, the system will approach the southern part of the Leeward Islands, part of the Lesser Antilles, which border the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.
The islands of Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique and all smaller islands in around these three larger islands will experience gusty winds and the heaviest rainfall during Thursday. Rainfall totals could average 2-4 inches," Kottlowski said.

During Thursday night and Friday the remnants of the system will pass near or just south of the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico. During Friday nigh and Saturday the remnants of the system will move across Hispaniola.

Wind shear is rather strong over most of the Atlantic Basin this week, as has been the case during much of the season thus far. Shear is a zone of strong, generally west to east flowing winds above the surface of the ocean that can disrupt tropical systems.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#163 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:50 am

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#164 Postby ouragans » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:36 am

TD2 is in very bad shape this morning, and I wonder if it will maintain TD status up to tonight. Do you guys think RECON is still necesary?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#165 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:45 am

ouragans wrote:TD2 is in very bad shape this morning, and I wonder if it will maintain TD status up to tonight. Do you guys think RECON is still necesary?

You may be right my friend :) looks like horrible sat appearance! but let's wait and see if this trend continues during the next couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#166 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:17 am

ouragans wrote:TD2 is in very bad shape this morning, and I wonder if it will maintain TD status up to tonight. Do you guys think RECON is still necesary?


Recon! Heck no. It's no more than a moderate tropical wave with about zero chance of regenerating. Last advisory should be written in a few hours. Clearly, there's no LLC remaining.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#167 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:20 am




To be fair ASCAT missed most of its circulation last night, that I can see, but yes it showed light NE winds in its SW quadrant, definitely is hard to find a closed circulation at the surface on visible this morning.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#168 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:32 am

ASCAT did miss the area where a center should be, but it caught the western periphery. Those winds were suggestive of an approaching wave not a closed circulation. No evidence of an LLC on the latest visible imagery. With nearly 100% certainty it's an open wave, and not a very strong one at that.

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#169 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:33 am

Sorry, Bones reminded me it's time...

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#170 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:33 am

you have to wonder if water molecules will ever again be in the tropics, lol. been a long time since moist air was present in the deep tropics. TD2 was actually an over performer given the hostile conditions.
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Re:

#171 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:46 am

ninel conde wrote:you have to wonder if water molecules will ever again be in the tropics, lol. been a long time since moist air was present in the deep tropics. TD2 was actually an over performer given the hostile conditions.


You must be only referring to the Atlantic's deep tropics and not the tropics as a whole, right?
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Re: Re:

#172 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:50 am

NDG wrote:
ninel conde wrote:you have to wonder if water molecules will ever again be in the tropics, lol. been a long time since moist air was present in the deep tropics. TD2 was actually an over performer given the hostile conditions.


You must be only referring to the Atlantic's deep tropics and not the tropics as a whole, right?


sure. lots of moisture in the east pac and of course over virginia. hard to figure how it can be so moist here and so desert like in the tropics.
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#173 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:31 am

Decreasing numbers...


20140723 1145 14.3 53.3 T1.0/1.5 02L NONAME
20140723 0545 14.2 52.1 T1.5/1.5 02L NONAME
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#174 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:13 am

Yea, I agree, it's an open wave. But that's okay because before long we will be tracking Hurricanes not wimpy depressions as the African Wave Train gets started.....The top is about to bust open very soon.....
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#175 Postby Sanibel » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:16 am

The July Caribbean can be tough on weak systems.
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#176 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:29 am

Image

poor 02L
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#177 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:46 am

RING...RING....RING..."Hello? Oh hi Queen. What's that? It's time to cue up "Another One Bits the Dust"? Yes I agree. I will go ahead and cue the music."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY0WxgSXdEE#t=11

wxman57 wrote:Sorry, Bones reminded me it's time...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg
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#178 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:48 am

I'd say it's dead - too hostile out there but it did put in a good fight. Maybe the last advisory from the NHC at 11AM EST?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#179 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:59 am

REMNANTS OF TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

Visible satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened
overnight, with only a weak swirl remaining with no deep
convection. Low-level cloud motions show no evidence of a closed
surface circlation so this is the last advisory on this system
issued by NHC. The remnants of the depression are expected to move
through the Lesser Antilles this evening with some areas of gusty
winds and showers.

Further information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TWO
12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: Re:

#180 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:37 am

ninel conde wrote:
NDG wrote:
ninel conde wrote:you have to wonder if water molecules will ever again be in the tropics, lol. been a long time since moist air was present in the deep tropics. TD2 was actually an over performer given the hostile conditions.


You must be only referring to the Atlantic's deep tropics and not the tropics as a whole, right?


sure. lots of moisture in the east pac and of course over virginia. hard to figure how it can be so moist here and so desert like in the tropics.


It's usually very dry off Africa during the early season then moistens up by August. Last year the air stayed dry but we'll see if it does the same or not.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.


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