ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#141 Postby blp » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:23 pm

Sanibel wrote:Small center burst and headed towards better SST's past 60W.


Good point about the SST's. That is one variable that will certainly continue to improve. It looks like dry air alone will not kill this system.

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#142 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:30 pm

Need to point out that historically systems tend to ramp up in this region east of the Islands as they move westward and get torn apart once they reach the eastern Carib. Sea.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#143 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:48 pm

blp wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Small center burst and headed towards better SST's past 60W.


Good point about the SST's. That is one variable that will certainly continue to improve. It looks like dry air alone will not kill this system.

http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tro ... 20x486.jpg

Those SST's have REALLY warmed up in the GoM, West Atlantic, and NW Caribbean. :eek:
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#144 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:56 pm

Saved WV loop floater. The yellow in the image is the dry air and it seems it is shrinking in size:

Image
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#145 Postby blp » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:08 pm

For a system on life support this continues to fire up this evening. Here is the latest image 0115UTC. There is a problem on the noaa site not updating.

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Re:

#146 Postby blp » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:Saved WV loop floater. The yellow in the image is the dry air and it seems it is shrinking in size:

http://i60.tinypic.com/25ge1jd.jpg[/img]



Yea it almost looks like an eastern surge in moisture is making a dent in the dry air mass.
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Re:

#147 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:37 pm

Alyono wrote:its accelerated. That is why convection is now over the "center" not to the west of it

One thing that is often said here in error is that a wave encountering easterly shear needs to slow down. That makes little sense as easterly shear means the upper winds are moving faster than the vortex. If the vortex accelerates, the shear is reduced


But what about the low level easterly jet, that can also kill a weak surface circulation.
Barbados 0z sounding showed winds at H70 around 35 knots from the east while winds at H20 are around 20 knots from SE.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#148 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:43 pm

blp wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Small center burst and headed towards better SST's past 60W.


Good point about the SST's. That is one variable that will certainly continue to improve. It looks like dry air alone will not kill this system.

Image



One thing that I wanted to point out somewhat off the subject, SSTs in east central Atlantic coast of FL, I have never seen it this warm, mid 80s surf temps. This time of the year we usually see cooler waters upwelling along this part of the coast with surf temps staying in the 70s from Vero Beach on northward.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#149 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:14 pm

NDG wrote:
blp wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Small center burst and headed towards better SST's past 60W.


Good point about the SST's. That is one variable that will certainly continue to improve. It looks like dry air alone will not kill this system.

Image



One thing that I wanted to point out somewhat off the subject, SSTs in east central Atlantic coast of FL, I have never seen it this warm, mid 80s surf temps. This time of the year we usually see cooler waters upwelling along this part of the coast with surf temps staying in the 70s from Vero Beach on northward.

Yeah they are definitely warmer than average, typical of what you would see come September and October. Here in the Palm Beach County they are about 83-84°F, here's a closer look of just how warm they are. :darrow:
Image
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#150 Postby blp » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:25 pm

NHC keeps extending the time of death. Don't you just think they want it to go away already. :)

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#151 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:34 pm

:uarrow: It has also been proving that it is a little fighter not wanting to give up. :lol:
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#152 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:35 pm

Northerly/northwesterly shear is starting to increase over Tropical Depression Two, evidenced by the increasingly oblong appearance to the most recent convective burst. Wind shear itself is expected to become unfavorable for intensification over the next 2 days, but the real killer should be the bone-dry air that these upper-level winds should ingest into the core of Two. Mid-level relative humidity values are in the 30s!

This should degenerate by the time it reaches the Caribbean, but in the off chance that it doesn't, upper-level winds over 40 knots and surface trade winds of 20-30 knots will be there to greet it with a kiss of death.

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#153 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:36 pm

It can probably survive as long as it stays small enough to keep hiding inside of its' little moisture envelope (until it reaches that zone of shearing winds), but if it manages to deepen and expand any then there will probably be a feedback loop dragging dry air into the system and causing it to collapse entirely.
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#154 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:14 pm

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 51.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#155 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:57 pm

TD 2 will be passing very close to the south of Bouy 41040, let's see what kind of winds it clocks.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#156 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:07 am

Underrated system, however it would appear that the islands will destroy it in the long-run if it survives dry air, or at least prevent TS/H attainment. Nice convective structure, will need to confirm if LLC is positioned with visible satellite.
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#157 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:43 am

...FAST-MOVING DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 53.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
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#158 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:49 am

From the Weather Channel

:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... s-20140721

Tropical Depression Two Spins East of Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic

Published: Jul 22, 2014, 11:39 PM EDT weather.com

Tropical Depression Two formed Monday afternoon and is now about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

While the system's persistence has been somewhat impressive, the overall environment for significant strengthening is poor. T.D. Two is working against a massive reservoir of dry air, and it will be encountering increasing wind shear (changing wind speed and direction with height) in the next few days.

As a result, the official forecast dissipates the depression before reaching the Windward Islands Thursday. Whatever is left of the system may bring some showers to parts of the island chain.

Nonetheless, we will monitor the storm closely over the next several days.
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#159 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:53 am

Tropical Update: Tropical Depression Two in Atlantic

Stu Ostro, Michael Lowry, Dr. Greg Postel Published: Jul 23, 2014, 4:54 AM EDT weather.com

:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/news/tropical-up ... n-20140513

ATLANTIC BASIN

As is sometimes the case overnight with tropical systems, thunderstorms are flaring up near the circulation of Tropical Depression Two, helping to extend its 15 minutes as it races westward toward the Lesser Antilles.

There's been no change to the forecast thinking. The depression faces an uphill climb, with dry air enveloping its circulation and hostile upper winds lying in wait. This one-two-punch should be enough to weaken the depression into a tropical disturbance by tomorrow or Thursday. Either way, the moisture surge associated with the depression will increase rainfall chances across drought-stricken areas of the Caribbean later this week and into the weekend.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#160 Postby torrea40 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:57 am

Interesting..... :grrr:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2014 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 13:26:08 N Lon : 51:37:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1012.8mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.8 3.6

Center Temp : -57.5C Cloud Region Temp : -46.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.2 degrees
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