ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#201 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.



Then so much for all of the global warming doomsayers about the increase in hurricanes because of global warming....Guess there's no global warming after all.....If the globe was indeed heating up, then so would be the oceans and so would be the tropical activity..True there are other conditions, but there would still be more tropical disturbances due to the "hot water"....
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#202 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:59 pm

only way i see less system this year if el nino go into affect if dont dont we may see maybe round 5 system all in total td or hurr
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#203 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:57 pm

I was actually kind of suprised that TD-2 formed at all considering how unfavorable the tropics are right now. Glad to see it poof, lets hope we have a landfall free hurricane season the remainder of this year.....MGC
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#204 Postby ninel conde » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.



5/2/0 is very possible along with an ace under 25
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#205 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:25 pm

MGC wrote:I was actually kind of suprised that TD-2 formed at all considering how unfavorable the tropics are right now. Glad to see it poof, lets hope we have a landfall free hurricane season the remainder of this year.....MGC

We already had a U.S. landfalling hurricane a few weeks ago. Arthur made landfall as a formidable Cat.2 along the Outer Banks of NC.
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#206 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:41 pm

I will say that based upon what WXMAN said, perhaps I was correct with my initial prediction of us only making it to letter "G" this year...
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#207 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:59 pm

Former TD 2 looks just about dead for now.. If it moves into Carribbean it will be dead for sure but if it moves NW and lingers near Bahamas it could be something (unlikely). We will see by tomorrow night....

Synopsis on Former TD 2: http://goo.gl/3D9qdO

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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#208 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:05 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.



Then so much for all of the global warming doomsayers about the increase in hurricanes because of global warming....Guess there's no global warming after all.....If the globe was indeed heating up, then so would be the oceans and so would be the tropical activity..True there are other conditions, but there would still be more tropical disturbances due to the "hot water"....


Just because people saying global warming would increase hurricanes were wrong does not mean that people saying global warming is happening were wrong. This is a pretty annoying and common failure of logic, just because one thing is wrong doesn't mean every thing is wrong.

Weather is really complicated!
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#209 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:37 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Two, located about 140 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles, are producing cloudiness and
disorganized showers. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
re-development of this system as it moves rapidly westward at 25
mph. Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring
gusty winds and showers to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight
and Thursday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#210 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:47 pm

MGC wrote:I was actually kind of suprised that TD-2 formed at all considering how unfavorable the tropics are right now. Glad to see it poof, lets hope we have a landfall free hurricane season the remainder of this year.....MGC

TD Two's development was largely due to the passage of a convectively-coupled kelvin wave. These waves enhance upper-level divergence, leading to lowering surface pressures and convective development. This is similar to how Dorian last year developed; we see what happened to it once the CCKW passed. This was nothing different.

Another one will pass next week, so we might have to watch the central/eastern Atlantic then. Not every CCKW will lead to a tropical cyclone though.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#211 Postby Steve H. » Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:08 pm

Sorry, this has absolutely nothing to do with a Kelvin Wave. Where/how did you come up with this hypothesis?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#212 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:38 pm

Steve H. wrote:Sorry, this has absolutely nothing to do with a Kelvin Wave. Where/how did you come up with this hypothesis?


Fairly well known in the trop met community that the passage of a Kelvin wave is favorable for development
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#213 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:41 pm

Steve H. wrote:Sorry, this has absolutely nothing to do with a Kelvin Wave. Where/how did you come up with this hypothesis?


This conversation between a hurricane specialist at the NHC and some very well known people in the field helps the CCKW case a bit. I believe that a CCKW may have helped a little bit in this case.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 8767472640
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#214 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:49 pm

Steve H. wrote:Sorry, this has absolutely nothing to do with a Kelvin Wave. Where/how did you come up with this hypothesis?

What's your evidence that it wasn't?

Convectively-coupled kelvin waves are associated with localized regions of enhanced upper-level divergence. When air diverges in the upper atmosphere, air at the surface is forced to rise; since pressure is just a byproduct of the weight of an air parcel, when this air rises into the upper atmosphere, surface pressures lower. Lowering surface pressures feedback, leading to enhanced low-level convergence. Increased levels of low-level convergence mean more rising air, more convective development, and more latent heat release.

There are MANY known cases of tropical cyclones forming during or just after the passage of CCKW. We've seen several in the East Pacific this year alone. A new hypothesis is that CCKWs may also aid in the rapid intensification of cyclones, as we saw with Amanda in May and Raymond last October.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#215 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:16 am

somethingfunny wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.



Then so much for all of the global warming doomsayers about the increase in hurricanes because of global warming....Guess there's no global warming after all.....If the globe was indeed heating up, then so would be the oceans and so would be the tropical activity..True there are other conditions, but there would still be more tropical disturbances due to the "hot water"....


Just because people saying global warming would increase hurricanes were wrong does not mean that people saying global warming is happening were wrong. This is a pretty annoying and common failure of logic, just because one thing is wrong doesn't mean every thing is wrong.

Weather is really complicated!



Maybe so....I mean California(where I live) is on the verge of a catastrophic disaster of epic proportions(horrible drought), so something obviously is going on.... I feel like anyone who says that should have all their daily water privileges removed......People who take water for granted.
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#216 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:47 am

Yellow alert have been activated in the butterfly island and should be maintain till tommorow 6AM.

For those who are interrested this twave is crossing Guadeloupe since yesterday night...bringing thunderstorms even isolated ligthnings and showers.

Our local Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe measured between 20 and 40 millimeters at Petit-Bourg (near my locality) and gustywinds up to 63km/h. Waves average of 2m10, with max at 3m70. Thanksfully this feature should bring some water after the severe drought always occuring in most of the EC islands :). I will keep your informed if i've more infos from this feature.

Regards
Gustywind :wink:
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#217 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:49 am

200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving westward over
portions of the Lesser Antilles are associated with the remnants
of Tropical Depression Two. There are no signs of a surface
circulation, and environmental conditions are not conducive for
re-development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at
about 25 mph. Showers and gusty winds are possible through much of
the day, especially on the islands of Guadeloupe, Dominica,
Martinique, and St. Lucia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#218 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:05 am

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.


Generally it seems these unfavorable conditions have been around for years, at what point do we conclude an overall pattern change has ocurred from the active period that started in the mid 1990's
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#219 Postby ninel conde » Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:21 am

i think the active period ended a few years ago and might be the shortest active period ever. we got quite lucky as the active period of 1933-1964 featured many more major canes hitting the US. most of the time since 1995 we have had a protective trough in the west atlantic.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

#220 Postby WPBWeather » Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:51 am

Blown Away wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.


Generally it seems these unfavorable conditions have been around for years, at what point do we conclude an overall pattern change has ocurred from the active period that started in the mid 1990's


Not to put too fine a point on it, didn't Phil K. (and many others) not get it too right last season?
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