CPAC: INVEST 92C
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- cycloneye
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CPAC: INVEST 92C
EP, 93, 2014072412, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1224W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072418, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1230W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072506, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1232W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1235W, 25, 1008, LO
EP, 93, 2014072418, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1227W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1230W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072506, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1232W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1235W, 25, 1008, LO
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
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- Yellow Evan
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:This is the 30/40 system, right?
The more Western one than 94E that is at 20/50.
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- Hurricane_Luis
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure centered
about 1150 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized and the potential
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 24 hours or so has
increased. However, after that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less favorable for development as the system moves
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
.
about 1150 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized and the potential
for tropical cyclone formation during the next 24 hours or so has
increased. However, after that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less favorable for development as the system moves
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 19 19 22 28 30 29 27 21 23 21 21 13 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 0 5 4 3 0 -4 -8 -4 -1
SHEAR DIR 326 313 297 293 289 281 286 286 301 320 327 296 264
SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.4
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 19 19 22 28 30 29 27 21 23 21 21 13 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 0 5 4 3 0 -4 -8 -4 -1
SHEAR DIR 326 313 297 293 289 281 286 286 301 320 327 296 264
SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.4
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- Steve820
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Looks like it has a shot, but will be another weak TS. At last it is out of the deep tropics.
I agree. But if it develops, I hope it only peaks as a depression so the name Hernan won't be wasted.
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
![Be Cool :Bcool:](./images/smilies/23_1_45.gif)
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Shower activity associated with a westward-moving area of low
pressure centered about 1175 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula continues to become better organized.
There is potential for a tropical depression to form during the next
day or so before upper-level winds become less favorable for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
pressure centered about 1175 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula continues to become better organized.
There is potential for a tropical depression to form during the next
day or so before upper-level winds become less favorable for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Steve820 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Looks like it has a shot, but will be another weak TS. At last it is out of the deep tropics.
I agree. But if it develops, I hope it only peaks as a depression so the name Hernan won't be wasted.
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At this rate, itll be Iselle instead, given how good 94E looks.
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- Yellow Evan
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A low pressure area located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. Although upper-level winds
are currently marginally conducive for development, a tropical
depression could still form during the next day or so while the low
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. Although upper-level winds
are currently marginally conducive for development, a tropical
depression could still form during the next day or so while the low
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression
could be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be
initiated later today. However, upper-level winds are forecast to
become highly unfavorable tonight or Sunday, and this could halt
additional development of the system as it moves westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression
could be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be
initiated later today. However, upper-level winds are forecast to
become highly unfavorable tonight or Sunday, and this could halt
additional development of the system as it moves westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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- Yellow Evan
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I think this has been upgraded to a TD, based on the lack of STEXT file for 12z.
But for 6z.
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 49 48 44 39 34 30 25
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 49 48 44 39 34 30 25
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 40 36 33 29 27 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 3 5 11 13 12 12 12 14 23 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -2 2 2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -5
SHEAR DIR 81 264 290 314 326 316 313 292 239 254 286 340 349
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.7 27.4 26.0 24.8 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.6
Has 60 hours. Not horrible.
But for 6z.
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 49 48 44 39 34 30 25
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 49 48 44 39 34 30 25
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 40 36 33 29 27 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 3 5 11 13 12 12 12 14 23 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -2 2 2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -5
SHEAR DIR 81 264 290 314 326 316 313 292 239 254 286 340 349
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.7 27.4 26.0 24.8 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.6
Has 60 hours. Not horrible.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has decreased during the past few hours. There is also
less organization as strong upper-level winds continue to approach
the system. However, a tropical depression could still form later
today before the environment becomes highly unfavorable on Sunday.
Regardless of development, the low should continue to move slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has decreased during the past few hours. There is also
less organization as strong upper-level winds continue to approach
the system. However, a tropical depression could still form later
today before the environment becomes highly unfavorable on Sunday.
Regardless of development, the low should continue to move slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
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- weathernerdguy
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this invest is in shear that is 30-40 knots
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
1350 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is currently poorly organized. While upper-level winds
are becoming less favorable for development, there is still some
potential for a tropical depression to form tonight or Sunday.
Regardless of development, the low should continue to move slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1350 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is currently poorly organized. While upper-level winds
are becoming less favorable for development, there is still some
potential for a tropical depression to form tonight or Sunday.
Regardless of development, the low should continue to move slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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