EPAC: HERNAN - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: HERNAN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 25, 2014 7:37 am

EP, 94, 2014072412, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1014W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014072418, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1018W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014072500, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1022W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014072506, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1027W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1032W, 25, 1008, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:11 am

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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:40 am

This is the one that IMO has the most potential of the batch.
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Re:

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:54 am

Yellow Evan wrote:This is the one that IMO has the most potential of the batch.


Agree that this one has the best potential to be a strong one as it is well away from the front ones.
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#5 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:49 am

Invest 94E. To the far right of the image.

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#6 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:35 pm

Possible hurricane out of this one.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:47 pm

Showers and thunderstorms have also become better organized in
association with the tropical wave moving westward well south of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Upper-level winds are becoming
a little more favorable for development of this system and a
tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:29 pm

18z Best Track.

94E INVEST 140725 1800 11.5N 104.2W EPAC 30 1008
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#9 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:37 pm

Not bad! I think this will be the strongest of all the systems currently present because it looks as though it has the best conditions out of all. It also looks very good now and somewhat better since the last TWO.
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:22 pm

18z SHIPS

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 49 55 57 57 54 49 44 38
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 49 55 57 57 54 49 44 38
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 47 51 53 52 48 42 37 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 2 2 5 11 11 4 8 10 11 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 4 -2 0 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 44 89 139 169 236 2 352 340 319 256 269 291 326
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.0 26.7 25.4 24.6 24.1 23.8
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Re:

#11 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:42 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Not bad! I think this will be the strongest of all the systems currently present because it looks as though it has the best conditions out of all. It also looks very good now and somewhat better since the last TWO.


In addition this one has a bit of space to work with as it's not clumped with the other systems and it is expected to track away from that general area.
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#12 Postby Steve820 » Fri Jul 25, 2014 4:58 pm

I hope this becomes a hurricane! But with all the previous fails I'm not holding my breath.



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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:40 pm

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure area located about 500 miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions appear to be favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form during
the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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#14 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:01 pm

I think 94E is ready to graduate.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:10 pm

00z Best Track:

EP, 94, 2014072600, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1048W, 30, 1007, LO
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:16 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Not bad! I think this will be the strongest of all the systems currently present because it looks as though it has the best conditions out of all. It also looks very good now and somewhat better since the last TWO.


In addition this one has a bit of space to work with as it's not clumped with the other systems and it is expected to track away from that general area.


TAM, agreed, it is also in the EDR and thus father away from the cool SST's. At an area typical for strong hurricanes to form.
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:18 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 50 58 66 67 64 57 51 45 40
V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 50 58 66 67 64 57 51 45 40
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 44 52 57 58 56 51 45 39 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 4 1 1 4 10 9 12 11 14 14 20 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 1 0 2 1 0 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 57 53 39 223 333 346 351 337 306 322 330 349 351
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.8 26.6 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.3

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 75% is 5.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 49% is 12.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:22 pm

HWRF keeps it weak, but remember, it has a east bias that takes into the cold SST's of the Californi8a Current. Still brings it to 997mbar though.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:43 pm

Image

Slightly outdated
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:35 am

Another low pressure area located about 450 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to show signs of organization.
Conditions appear conducive for additional development until Monday,
when the system is expected to reach colder water. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
low moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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