EPAC: HERNAN - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:

#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:18 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The East Pacific has been really struggling to produce anything of significance and quality for the past month or so. Why is that?


At least this was a hurricane.

Shear has increased slightly, and the storm have been forming more east typical of El Ninos closer to the cool waters.

Is it possible this trying to become a Modoki El Niño and the Centeal Pacific sees the most activity, cause that's what it seems like lately?


No, given the high Nino 1+2 values.
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Re: EPAC: HERNAN - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 29, 2014 4:55 am

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Hernan continues to weaken. Deep convection has been decreasing
during the past few hours and is now confined to a small patch to
the northeast of the exposed low-level center. A blend of the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt. The system is currently
over cool 24 C waters and in atmosphere of fairly dry air and
moderate southwesterly shear. These environmental conditions are
expected to become even more hostile, which should cause Hernan to
weaken to a depression later today and to a remnant low by tonight.
The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant low
dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over
northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. Hernan, or
its remnant low, is expected to slow down during the next couple of
days when it steered by the lighter low-level flow. The model
guidance has changed little this cycle, and the official track
forecast is an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 22.8N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 23.7N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 24.4N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z 24.9N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 25.3N 127.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: HERNAN - Post-Tropical

#83 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:41 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GOES-15 shortwave infrared imagery shows that Hernan's surface
circulation has become elongated (north to south) and ill-defined.
The post-tropical cyclone has been devoid of significant deep
convection for over 12 hours, and regeneration is not likely due to
sea surface temperature of less than 24 deg C. The winds associated
with the remnant low should continue to decrease, with dissipation
of the system expected in a couple of days.

The initial motion has been along a persistent west-northwest
direction, or 300/13 kt, within the low- to mid-level flow on the
periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast. This general
motion should continue until the system dissipates in 48 hours. The
NHC forecast is similar to that from the previous package and
follows the TVCE consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional
information on the remnant low of Hernan, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 23.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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