WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

The West Pacific really is the ultimate Tropical Cyclone factory...

Halong is the 3rd STY with winds of 135 knots since July 1...

Our first Category 5?

[euro6208]

Halong has been intensifying rapidly under moderate shear of 20 knots which is likely keeping the intensification rate from great to subpar...

[dexterlabio]

Is it about to undergo an EWR?

[euro6208]

Is it about to undergo an EWR?

Not so sure. Interesting that the eye is shrinking and dark grey tops of -80 around eye is now 75 percent complete...

I think we could see another massive strengthening...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products

[supercane]

WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 15.1N 134.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 16.3N 132.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 041800UTC 18.1N 131.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 051800UTC 20.9N 131.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 061800UTC 24.6N 130.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
120HF 071800UTC 28.0N 129.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 021800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC
00HR 15.3N 134.6E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 15.9N 133.2E 915HPA 62M/S
P+24HR 16.8N 131.9E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 17.7N 130.9E 915HPA 62M/S
P+48HR 18.9N 130.4E 920HPA 60M/S
P+60HR 20.5N 130.2E 925HPA 58M/S
P+72HR 22.3N 129.9E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 25.7N 129.5E 935HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 29.1N 128.8E 945HPA 48M/S=

[supercane4867]

Halong is now officially the first Cat.5 of the year in northern hemisphere

11W HALONG 140802 1800 15.1N 134.6E WPAC 140 918

[supercane4867]

Saved loop





The CDO and outflow pattern continues to improve

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.4N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.3N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.2N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 134.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Is it about to undergo an EWR?

Doesn't look close to one on the latest microwave. Interesting that the eyewall doesn't look complete given the Dvorak estimates.


BTW, trochoidal motion easily seen over last several hours.

[supercane4867]

First visible shot of the day

[xtyphooncyclonex]

First visible shot of the day

Beautiful!

[supercane]

WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 15.2N 133.9E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 16.6N 131.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 050000UTC 18.4N 130.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 060000UTC 21.3N 130.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 070000UTC 25.3N 130.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
120HF 080000UTC 28.3N 127.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 030000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC
00HR 15.3N 134.0E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 16.2N 132.6E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 17.0N 131.2E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 17.9N 130.6E 915HPA 62M/S
P+48HR 19.3N 130.3E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 20.8N 130.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 22.9N 130.3E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 26.2N 129.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+120HR 29.0N 127.6E 950HPA 45M/S=

[supercane]

BTW, PAGASA name for this system is "Jose"

[supercane]

Latest microwave shows complete eyewall:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW. Despite some shear to the NW, Halong intensified into a Category 5 Super typhoon! As said in the JTWC Prognostic Reasoning, Halong's equatorial outflow was superb, OHC and SSTs were very favorable. This storm is very impressive, and that it is the only storm so far, after a couple of typhoons (Neoguri and Rammasun) went very near category 5 intensity but failed.

Back to the storm. Now, the storm has a weird westerly track moving slowly, and is later forecast to move towards the NNW, encountering less favorable conditions and yet forecast to remain as a very strong and powerful typhoon. If it pans out, the ACE will rise faster and would make the season so far above-normal.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The most intriguing part about Typhoon Halong is that it managed to intensify into a Category 5 equivalent without the help of a poleward outflow channel. In most cases, tropical cyclones need a superb to near perfect upper-air pattern to reach the strength that this storm has, yet Halong has consistently been under the influence of ~20kt of northerly shear from Tropical Storm Nakri. The only explanation that I can offer is that this intensification was fueled by enhanced upper-level divergence as the shear vectors pull apart in the vicinity of the cyclone.



Although the storm still looks incredible, eyewall convection has warmed to the point where little -80C tops remain. There are signs of dry air in the northern semicircle of the system. For these two reasons, Halong has probably peaked in intensity.

But look at that eye!

[dexterlabio]

^For once I thought it would give in due to strong VWS. Then it became a typhoon under 30-40kts of wind shear. It's interesting to see other factors contributing to a cyclone's intensification, besides warm SST's and low shear.

[dexterlabio]

It's tracking so slowly I think it might weaken itself due to upwelling.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not minding the cloud top temperature, the storm's structure is currently improving and it is losing its banding, and may mean another round of intensification.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 759 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED AROUND A SHARPLY 28-NM EYE. THE MSI ALSO SHOWS A
SLIGHT THINNING OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 022249Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAS
SLIGHTLY DEGRADED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS, AND COULD BE THE RESULT OF
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OFFSETTING
THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
48, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN JAPAN CREATES A BREAK IN THE STR, CAUSING STY HALONG TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING STY 11W TO
MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY HALONG IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD
TURN NEAR TAU 24 AND THE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN