WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

The sky is very dark right now with a little sprinkle. Latest radar showing a massive area of convection that should start to move through Guam and the Marianas later on today and 11W looks better organized. Dvorak now up to 2.5 so I wouldn't be surprised if we might be dealing with a TS soon.

[euro6208]

Sunrise...

[euro6208]

Over the Marianas...



Peaks at 931 mb...



Over some high heat content, 50-75, and only gets warmer along the path...

[euro6208]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 281940
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
540 AM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
JTWC WARNED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WHICH IS NEAR 12N149E AND
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST. WE ISSUED THE FIRST PUBLIC
ADVISORY AT 100 AM. RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND
FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE COVERAGE AREA AND SATELLITE SHOWS HEAVY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 11W IS ABOUT 150 MILES SE OF GUAM
AND EDGING OUR WAY. RITIDIAN AND SAIPAN BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS
NEAR 8 FT MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRACKING TD 11W WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE COMING DAYS AND
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MARIANAS BY LATER
TODAY. THIS MORNINGS FORECAST WAS BASED ON GRIDS THAT WERE ADAPTED
FROM THE JTWC FORECAST OF TRACK AND INTENSITY WHILE RESTRICTING THE
ACTUAL CONDITIONS TO JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. MOST MODELS
HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS ABOUT 90W MOVING ROUGHLY TOWARD NORTHWEST BUT
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN ITS EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE GENERAL
TREAD IS FOR TD 11W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...AND THE CENTRAL TRACK
SHOULD MOVE SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO/OR THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST ZONES
BY ABOUT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE/TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
HAZARDOUS SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. SOME MODELS DIFFER BUT THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO THAT WE NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR IS THAT 11W WILL MOVE INTO OUR
MARINE ZONES WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT IS GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A TROPICAL STORM. MANY ADJUSTMENTS AND EDITS WERE
NEEDED TO MAKE THE MARINE GRIDS COHERENT WITH THAT SCENARIO. THE DAY
SHIFT SHOULD BE BETTER ABLE TO MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT THE NEED FOR
WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN OUR FORECAST AREA BASED ON HOW TD 11W HAS
DEVELOPED AND MOVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W CENTERED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK AT 12N149E
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. DRIER WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK AS 11W
MOVES AWAY. FARTHER EAST...IR SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS JUST WEST OF
MAJURO. MODELS TAKE THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WESTWARD...PASSING JUST
NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KOSRAE...POHNPEI
AND CHUUK THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR MAJURO. SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY SPREAD ACROSS
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHIFTS WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK WEATHER DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN MICRONESIA
DISCUSSION DUE TO SIMILAR REASONING.

THE MONSOONAL DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR CONTINUES TO
PULL AWAY FROM YAP AND KOROR. IR SATELLITE SHOWS IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AT BOTH LOCALES WHILE
PLEASANT WEATHER PERSISTS. RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE
AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW ENHANCED SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK AT YAP IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 11W NEAR THE MARIANAS. INCREASED WINDS...CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT YAP DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF TD 11W.

LINGERING MONSOONAL SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL
CRAFT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH SURF THRU WEDNESDAY FOR THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. SURF HAS FALLEN BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS AT CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/M. AYDLETT

[Equilibrium]

11W ELEVEN 140728 1800 11.6N 148.6E WPAC 30 1006

[euro6208]

That western side of the circulation should impact us within the next 2 hours...I'm going out to witness this beautiful scene...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 282329
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
929 AM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W APPROACHING THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR GUAM...ROTA...
TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MARIANAS. PLEASE
LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.7N...LONGITUDE 148.3E...OR ABOUT 270 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS WAS ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HAGATNA GUAM GU...OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARAPAN
SAIPAN MP. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-SOUTHWEST. STORM INTENSITY WAS
35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE MARIANAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-290730-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0001.140728T2329Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
929 AM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST HIGHER AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE WHICH
ISLANDS GET TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF COASTAL INUNDATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY AS 11W PASSES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

Flood watch issued...

000
WGMY60 PGUM 290003
FFAMY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1003 AM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TORRENTIAL RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MARIANAS...

.A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
ISLANDS OF GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

GUZ001>004-290815-
/X.NEW.PGUM.FF.A.0001.140729T0003Z-140731T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1003 AM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

* NOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE PROBABLE BY NOON WEDNESDAY.

* STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED ROADS AND PAY ATTENTION TO STREAM AND
RIVER LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

PGTW, KNES and CIMSS ADT at 2.5...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually the JMA's forecast has future Halong on a WNW track impacting southern Guam at a higher intensity.

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E145°05'(145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Right now, it really has impressive outflow and a well-defined LLC. Looks like a tropical storm.

[Equilibrium]

wdpn31 pgtw 282100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 11w (eleven)
warning nr 02//
rmks//
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Tropical depression (td) 11w (eleven), located approximately 251
nm east-southeast of andersen AFB, Guam, has tracked west-
southwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced
infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts deep central convection
obscuring the low-level circulation center (LLCC). A 281624z NOAA-19
microwave image reveals formative convective banding over the
northern and southern quadrants wrapping towards the center. The
current position is based on the eir animation and above microwave
image with low confidence. The initial intensity of 30 knots is
based on consistent Dvorak intensity estimates from pgtw and knes.
Upper-level analysis indicates the system is located in an area of
low to moderate (05 to 15 knot) vertical wind shear (vws) and
excellent equatorward outlow.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. No change to the forecast philosophy since the previous
prognostic reasoning message.
B. TD 11w is forecast to track northwestward along the
southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge to the north. Upper-
level conditions are expected to improve, allowing TD 11w to
gradually intensify throughout the forecast period. Additionally,
warm sea surface temperatures (sst) along the track remain favorable
for further development.
C. In the extended Taus, the system is expected to remain on its
northwestward trajectory. Continued gradual intensification to
typhoon strength is expected as the upper-level environment remains
marginally favorable and SST are conducive. Available model guidance
has slightly shifted to the south, however, remains in good
agreement. Due to the uncertainty in the initial positioning and the
track at extended Taus, there is overall low confidence in the jtwc
forecast.//
Nnnn

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The JTWC upgraded 11W to a tropical storm at 45 knots, while it is officially still at 30 kts. BECAUSE of that, I would follow the JTWC forecast more than the JMA as I agree with the former's intensity estimate. Intensifying way faster than the previous forecast, meaning a near-typhoon strength hit for Rota or Guam (uncertainty) and could mean very dangerous winds for the forementioned islands.

Below is the JTWC forecast.

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.2N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.6N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.2N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.8N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.7N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 148.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The JTWC upgraded 11W to a tropical storm at 45 knots, while it is officially still at 30 kts. BECAUSE of that, I would follow the JTWC forecast more than the JMA as I agree with the former's intensity estimate. Intensifying way faster than the previous forecast, meaning a near-typhoon strength hit for Rota or Guam (uncertainty) and could mean strong winds and dangerous waves for the aforementioned islands.

Below is the JTWC forecast.

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.2N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.6N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.2N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.8N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.7N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 148.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh, and the JTWC has a forecast disclaimer:

Products on this website are intended for use by U.S. government agencies. Please consult your national meteorological agency or the appropriate World Meteorological Organization Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for tropical cyclone products pertinent to your country, region and/or local area.

[Equilibrium]

(That jtwc upgrade was done after my post not before)

JTWC has been around for years and is a specialist agency in TY's. Thats good enough for me.


11W ELEVEN 140729 0000 12.2N 148.3E WPAC 45 989

[Equilibrium]

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282210Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE WELL-
DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 290008Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40 TO 45
KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAKER WINDS (25
TO 35 KNOT) OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE; HOWEVER,
ANOTHER TUTT LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS 11W IS FORECAST TO
SLIGHTLY HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE, CAUSING SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY AT EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Equilibrium]

looks like there is a visible eye.





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[euro6208]

Now Tropical Storm with winds of 45 knots!

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 290305
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM 11W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.3N 148.1E

ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 11W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 11W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE AND
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM 11W IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM 11W WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Please change the title of the thread.

TS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 04:20 UTC, 29 July 2014

<Analyses at 29/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°35'(12.6°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 30/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E145°30'(145.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)