WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Please change the title of the thread.

TS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 04:20 UTC, 29 July 2014

<Analyses at 29/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°35'(12.6°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 30/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E145°30'(145.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

[euro6208]

Slightly bit south than previous warnings and edging more close to Guam

Wow. Tropical Storm 11W has rapidly intensified over the past 6 hours as a visible eye is now evident and I think 45 knots which is a blend of dvorak and adt numbers of 3.0,2.5,2.9 might be a bit generous.I'm thinking 55 knots right now...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Please delete my second post.. My browser is currently so slow!

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM has now issued:

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[euro6208]

Scattered showers moving in nothing too much.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 290451
TCUPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP062014
230 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...230 PM CHST...0430 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 230 PM CHST...0430 UTC...A DEVELOPING EYE OF TROPICAL STORM
HALONG (11W) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 148.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT AN ELEVATION OF 35000
FEET. THE APPARENT EYE IS APPROXIMATELY 75% COMPLETE WITH SOME
BREAKS AND IS 45 MILES IN DIAMETER.

SUMMARY OF 230 PM CHST...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.6N 148.0E
ELEVATION...35000 FEET

ABOUT 225 MILES...105 DEGREES...ESE OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS FAIR TO GOOD AS THE
POSITION AS NEAR THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RADAR DISPLAY. ANIMATION AND
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES EAST OF THE CENTER IN THE RETURN ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THIS POSITION.

$$

EDSON

[Equilibrium]

11W ELEVEN 140729 0600 12.5N 147.8E WPAC 55 982

[Equilibrium]

That western side of the circulation should impact us within the next 2 hours...I'm going out to witness this beautiful scene...

Be careful its not a garden-variety storm now.

[euro6208]

Now up to 55 knots.

Impressive outflow and faint eye evident. Looks like it might bomb out during the next 24 hours.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 290515
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 11W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
315 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W NOW TROPICAL STORM HALONG...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM
AND ROTA AND FOR WATERS OUT TO 40 NM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND FOR WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MARIANAS. PLEASE
LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3N...LONGITUDE 148.1E...OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS WAS ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAGATNA GUAM GU...OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARAPAN SAIPAN
MP. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS
50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE MARIANAS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO
EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...
BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR
ADEQUATE LAND SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR
SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL
NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-002-PMZ151-152-291315-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PGUM.TY.A.0001.140729T0515Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
315 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TYPHOON WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A STRUCTURE MADE OF LIGHT
MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD REACH TYPHOON FORCE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF HALONG.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF
OF 12 TO 16 FEET IS POSSIBLE. HIGH TIDE FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING IS
AROUND 1000 PM CHST FOR BOTH GUAM AND ROTA.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-291315-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
315 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A STRUCTURE MADE OF LIGHT
MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING TO EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF
OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 290652
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
500 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 11W NAMED HALONG...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CHST...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 147.9E

ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 430 PM CHST...0630 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM
HALONG WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
4 MPH. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL
COURSE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FOWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AT 1100 PM.

$$

MCELROY/ZIOBRO/EDSON

[euro6208]

Very strong winds accompanying some showers occurring here in Tumon Bay and waves are getting huge!

[Equilibrium]

The bulk of the convention looks to be on the southern side of the storm . Guam will most likely experience the worst part of the storm.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

Easily gusting to gale force winds and has that sound of a coming typhoon.

[euro6208]

Latest JTWC warning at 50 knots and forecast a typhoon directly into rota.

[somethingfunny]

Easily gusting to gale force winds and has that sound of a coming typhoon.

It will be interesting to compare JMA and JTWC's intensity estimates to the actual wind data.

[Equilibrium]

This is text book of a rapidlly developing system

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

Based on that well defined eye, it's safe to say this is a solid typhoon and a rapidly intensifying one.

[euro6208]

http://m.guampdn.com/breaking/article?a=2014140729001&f=3000

GovGuam has moved into a Condition of Readiness 3 and is expected to move to COR 2 tonight and COR 1 in the morning.

[Equilibrium]

:uarrow:

Based on that well defined eye, it's safe to say this is a solid typhoon and a rapidly intensifying one.

Yup the eye is even more defined now.




JTWC Warning 4 track.