WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#341 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:42 am

11W HALONG 140804 1200 17.5N 130.1E WPAC 100 948

Winds down to 100 knots and pressure of 948...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#342 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:42 am

Catchup for 06Z advisories:
WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 16.9N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM SOUTH 80NM NORTH
30KT 270NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 19.3N 129.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 060600UTC 22.5N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 070600UTC 25.5N 129.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 080600UTC 28.5N 130.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
120HF 090600UTC 31.3N 130.9E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPQ20 BABJ 040600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC
00HR 17.0N 130.4E 945HPA 45M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 14KM/H
P+12HR 18.2N 129.6E 945HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 19.9N 129.2E 945HPA 45M/S
P+36HR 21.5N 129.0E 940HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 23.5N 128.9E 935HPA 50M/S
P+60HR 25.0N 128.9E 940HPA 48M/S
P+72HR 26.6N 128.8E 945HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 29.4N 128.6E 950HPA 42M/S
P+120HR 33.4N 130.4E 970HPA 33M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 040600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040600UTC 17.0N 130.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 050600UTC 19.5N 129.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 060600UTC 22.4N 129.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
72HR
POSITION 070600UTC 25.6N 129.0E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 080600UTC 28.7N 129.0E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 090600UTC 31.5N 129.5E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.0N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.7N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 29.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.2N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 130.3E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z,
050300Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
(NAKRI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Last edited by supercane on Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#343 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:43 am

Advisories for most recent 12Z cycle:
WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 17.4N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM SOUTH 80NM NORTH
30KT 270NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 20.3N 129.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 061200UTC 23.5N 130.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 071200UTC 25.9N 130.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 081200UTC 28.2N 130.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 091200UTC 30.4N 130.1E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =

Image

WTPQ20 BABJ 041200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC
00HR 17.6N 130.0E 945HPA 45M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 14KM/H
P+12HR 19.0N 129.8E 945HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 20.5N 129.6E 940HPA 48M/S
P+36HR 22.1N 129.3E 935HPA 50M/S
P+48HR 23.7N 129.0E 930HPA 52M/S
P+60HR 25.1N 128.9E 935HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 26.8N 128.8E 940HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 29.6N 128.7E 950HPA 42M/S
P+120HR 33.4N 130.4E 970HPA 33M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 041200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041200UTC 17.4N 130.0E
MOVEMENT NW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 051200UTC 20.3N 129.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
48HR
POSITION 061200UTC 23.3N 129.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
72HR
POSITION 071200UTC 26.6N 129.1E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 081200UTC 29.5N 129.5E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 091200UTC 32.1N 130.1E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.8N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.4N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.6N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.6N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.0N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 130.0E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE EIR,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 041116Z GMI 89
GHZ IMAGE AND A 040834Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ERODING INNER
EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A BROKEN SECONDARY EYEWALL. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN ON-GOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WHICH
CORRELATES TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
FURTHER EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH OF JAPAN.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, REVEALS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND ALSO INDICATES A TUTT CELL NEAR 28N 142E, WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO PROVIDE A POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. RECENT 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE A WEAKENING, NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED SOUTH OF CENTRAL JAPAN
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM TAIWAN TO THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TY 11W TO TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 115-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
DUE TO THE ERC AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VWS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN NEAR TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUFLOW IMPROVES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WITH GREATER SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL, THE DYNAMIC
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK
DIRECTION TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN, HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN,
CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE
STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO VARYING DEGREES. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT
A VERY LARGE SYSTEM, THEREFORE, GFS BREAKS DOWN THE STR QUICKLY AND
DEPICTS FASTER TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH TRACK SPEEDS 08 TO 10 KNOTS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72 AND THE DIFFERENT
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. TY 11W SHOULD INTENSIFY
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASES. NEAR
TAU 120, TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED OVER THE EAST
SEA.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#344 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:04 pm

18Z advisories:
WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 18.1N 129.8E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 21.4N 130.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 061800UTC 24.0N 131.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 071800UTC 26.5N 130.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 081800UTC 28.8N 130.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 091800UTC 31.0N 130.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 041800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC
00HR 18.3N 129.7E 950HPA 42M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 15KM/H
P+12HR 20.0N 129.6E 945HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 21.6N 130.0E 945HPA 45M/S
P+36HR 23.0N 130.1E 940HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 24.5N 130.2E 935HPA 50M/S
P+60HR 25.7N 130.2E 940HPA 48M/S
P+72HR 27.2N 130.0E 945HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 30.3N 130.2E 955HPA 40M/S
P+120HR 34.3N 132.4E 980HPA 28M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 041800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041800UTC 18.2N 129.9E
MOVEMENT N 8KT
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 051800UTC 21.5N 129.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
48HR
POSITION 061800UTC 24.6N 129.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
72HR
POSITION 071800UTC 27.4N 129.8E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 081800UTC 29.6N 129.7E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 091800UTC 32.0N 130.4E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
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#345 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:23 pm

21Z JTWC in, no longer a major typhoon at 95kt:
WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.1N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.3N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.5N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.4N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 129.9E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE EIR AND A 301645Z TRMM IMAGE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. SIGNIFICANT
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH OF JAPAN AIDS IN THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWEST, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOCALIZED TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST,
PROVIDES A POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR. THE TUTT CELL PROVIDES FOR A SLIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE TRACK IN THE EARLY TAUS, WITH THE SYSTEM
TRACKING ALONG THE RIDGE IN TAU 72 AND BEYOND. OVERALL, TY 11W WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VWS, AND THEN RE-
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM HAS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE
UNCERTAINTY, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
WHILE TRACK SPEEDS VARY CONSIDERABLY, CONSENSUS HAS THE SYSTEM
MAKING LANDFALL IN SHIKOKU AROUND TAU 108 AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
STR. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72 AND THE
DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. TY 11W WILL
INTENSIFY AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120, TY 11W WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS LAND AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHEN THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN.//
NNNN
Last edited by supercane on Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#346 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:18 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 19.1N 129.8E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 21.9N 130.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 070000UTC 24.7N 131.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 080000UTC 27.3N 130.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 090000UTC 29.1N 130.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
120HF 100000UTC 31.0N 130.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =

Image

WTPQ20 BABJ 050000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC
00HR 19.2N 129.6E 950HPA 42M/S
30KTS WINDS 330KM NORTHEAST
400KM SOUTHEAST
450KM SOUTHWEST
330KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 130KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
130KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 15KM/H
P+12HR 20.8N 129.7E 945HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 22.2N 130.1E 945HPA 45M/S
P+36HR 23.6N 130.5E 940HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 24.8N 130.5E 935HPA 50M/S
P+60HR 25.9N 130.2E 940HPA 48M/S
P+72HR 27.2N 129.6E 945HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 30.2N 129.3E 955HPA 40M/S
P+120HR 34.0N 130.9E 975HPA 30M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 050000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 050000UTC 19.2N 129.8E
MOVEMENT N 10KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 060000UTC 22.6N 129.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 070000UTC 25.7N 130.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
72HR
POSITION 080000UTC 28.2N 129.8E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 090000UTC 30.3N 130.1E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 100000UTC 32.5N 131.1E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
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#347 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:04 pm

03Z JTWC advisory out, some further weakening followed by restrengthening at 24hr (but not quite back to major typhoon status) followed by weakening at 72hr with landfall at Shikoku as a TS.
WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.7N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.4N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.4N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.8N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 130.0E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH HINT OF AN
EYE FEATURE FORMING. BASED ON THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. MODERATE (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM, CONTRIBUTING TO HALONG'S WEAKENING TREND. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL
AS A POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE TYPHOON
PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE STR, WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST INDUCING A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE TRACK IN THROUGH TAU 48. BETWEEN
TAUS 48 AND 72, HALONG'S MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE THE STR,
WITH THE SYSTEM ROUNDING ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VWS IN
THE REGION, AND THEN RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH
SPEED AND TRACK OF THE STORM. MOST MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN AROUND TAU 120, WITH GFDN BEING THE
OUTLIER, RECURVING SOUTH OF JAPAN INTO PACIFIC. DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE DIFFERENT
INTERPRETATION OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
STR, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU
72. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
SOUTHERN JAPAN AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#348 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:11 am

Category 2 typhoon and slowly weakening...This should pass very close to Minami/Daito Jima...

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO RE-
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR
EYE FORMING. DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS BROKEN BUT HAS SEEN MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS WITH A MORE SYM-
METRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO INTERACT,
CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (20 TO 30
KNOTS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. THIS INTERACTION IS CAUSING THE
WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BUT IS
ALSO PROVIDING THE AMPLY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUPPORT
THE STEADY INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN IN
THE MODERATE VWS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE STR, WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST INDUCING A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN
TAUS 36 AND 72, HALONG'S MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE THE STR,
WITH THE SYSTEM ROUNDING ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY BY TAU 72. TY 11W WILL
MAINTAIN IN INTENSITY IN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VWS. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36 THE
RELAXATION IN THE VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 48. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT TAU 72 IS EXPECTED AS TY 11W STARTS TO SEE
INCREASED MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH
SPEED AND TRACK OF THE STORM. MOST MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN AROUND TAU 108, WITH GFDN REMAINING THE
EASTERN OUTLIER, INDICATING TY 11W WILL RECURVE SOUTH OF JAPAN.
ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120 AS
THE SYSTEM SEES INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTER-
LIES AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN FURTHER WEAKENING
THE LLCC. BY TAU 120 MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE START OF EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BUT DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS,
WITH REGARD TO THE DIFFERENT INTERPRETATION OF THE TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE STR, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#349 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 05, 2014 6:21 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#350 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:12 am

11W HALONG 140805 1200 21.0N 130.0E WPAC 85 959

BT down to 85 knots...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#351 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:19 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#352 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:27 am

Conditions along the path of halong gets a little more favorable with higher ssts and deeper mpi...

GFS deepens this to 941 mb east of Okinawa and a monster 948 mb into mainland Japan...

Julio and Iselle getting the attention now but this is going to affect a far more populated area
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#353 Postby Hugo82 » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:07 pm

Stunning visualisation of the storm: http://www.meteoearth.com/#/,132.61,21.68,8.62,4,1,1,1
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#354 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:01 pm

looks like it's re-intensifying. Image

Image
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#355 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:37 pm

Both the JMA & JTWC forecast another round of intensification, but I wonder how much would this intensify. It is currently in a more favorable area, compared to before and it is encountering somewhat moist air.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#356 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:52 pm

Right now, the clouds have cooled and have become thicker, and indeed may be a sign for another round of intensification, but in the JMA & JTWC forecasts, intensification to its previous peak (105-140 kts) would be unlikely obviously. But I think it would intensify into at least for a brief period to a category 3 typhoon.

Current VIS image

Image
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#357 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:05 pm

Judging by past experience with strong storms that have their inner cores disrupted and then reintensify at a higher altitude, Halong may experience a significant pressure drop but instead of a corresponding windspeed increase, instead its' windfield would expand. Such systems represent my main gripe with the Saffir Simpson rating scale as they could still be exceptionally damaging in in all areas - surge, wind, and rain.
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#358 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:04 pm

0Z advisories:
WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 22.4N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 24.7N 130.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 080000UTC 26.9N 129.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 090000UTC 29.3N 129.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 100000UTC 32.4N 130.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
120HF 110000UTC 35.9N 133.6E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT =

Image

WTPQ20 BABJ 060000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC
00HR 22.5N 130.2E 950HPA 42M/S
30KTS WINDS 400KM NORTHEAST
420KM SOUTHEAST
450KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 130KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
180KM SOUTHWEST
130KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 15KM/H
P+12HR 24.0N 130.5E 945HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 25.4N 130.7E 940HPA 48M/S
P+36HR 26.7N 130.5E 940HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 27.8N 129.9E 945HPA 45M/S
P+60HR 29.0N 129.9E 955HPA 40M/S
P+72HR 30.5N 130.0E 970HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 35.1N 131.8E 985HPA 25M/S
P+120HR 41.0N 137.5E 998HPA 18M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 060000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 33
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060000UTC 22.4N 130.4E
MOVEMENT NNE 7KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 070000UTC 25.3N 130.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 080000UTC 27.8N 130.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
72HR
POSITION 090000UTC 30.6N 129.8E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 100000UTC 34.2N 131.9E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
120HR
POSITION 110000UTC 40.3N 138.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 985HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.4N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.2N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.2N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.9N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 130.5E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), CONFIRMED BY A PARTIAL 051942Z SSMIS PASS. TY HALONG
CONTINUES TO TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, DRIVEN BY A
RETROGRADING TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK
SPEED HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE WEAKER INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY EAST OF THE STORM, BECAUSE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TUTT ALONG WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM ARE OFFSET BY THE GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FROM RJTD AND PTGW, LEADS TO JTWC
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24 AS THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO PULL THE SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 36, THE TUTT CELL TRACKS NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE STORM AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE STR
TO THE EAST OF TY 11W WILL REORIENT SLIGHTLY AS THE TUTT CELL
RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH AND BECOME THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SYSTEM. TAU 48 AND BEYOND, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODELED FORECAST TRACK, WITH JENI AND NAVGEM
CONTINUING TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST DUE TO A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THEY FAVOR A BUILDING OF A STR WEST OF
THE SYSTEM, OVER EASTERN CHINA AND INTO THE YELLOW SEA. HOWEVER,
NAVGEM HAS SLOWLY BACKED DOWN ON THE STRENGTH OF THAT STR. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED MODEL FOR BOTH TRACK AND SPEED DUE THE
REBUILDING OF THE STR EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THAT THE TRACK
SPEED OF THE STORM TO MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE STR WILL DRIVE
THE STORM SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE STR. THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT AMBIGUITY IN THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS WITH
REGARD TO THE DRIVING FACTOR UP TO TAU 72. REGARDLESS, AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR TO THE EAST FROM TAU 48 TO 72, EXPECT THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN.
C. HALONG WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN AFTER TAU 72 AS
THE SYSTEM STARTS TO BE ABSORBED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS
11W WILL SPEED UP AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE VWS TO INCREASE
AND TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE OF THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF SHIKOKU AND
WESTERN HONSHU WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. EXPECT COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AFTER THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN INTO THE
SEA OF JAPAN. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE BIFURCATION OF THE MODELS IN THE LATER TAUS
AND THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC'S FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Equilibrium

#359 Postby Equilibrium » Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:41 am

Image
Dry slot.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#360 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:49 am

The JTWC Best Track shows an increase for typhoon Halong's winds to 85 knots, making it a category 2 again.

11W HALONG 140806 0600 23.1N 130.6E WPAC 85 959
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