WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#361 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:54 am

11W HALONG 140806 1200 23.6N 131.1E WPAC 85 959

Remains 85 knots!
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#362 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:11 am

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CENTRAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN AS THE
EYEWALL HAS OPENED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON THE DVORAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, THERE HAS BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION, BUT GIVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 85 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS BEEN HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW FOR TY 11W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKLY DEFINED
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER TY 11W IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. TY 11W HAS SHOWN SOME INDICATIONS OF AN EASTWARD
WOBBLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND HAS SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHEAST-
WARD TRACK AROUND A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE STR TO THE EAST REORIENTS WITH THE RETROGRADING TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 48 TY 11W WILL BE LOCATED ON THE NORTH-
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS TY 11W TAPS INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36 THE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO
IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE START OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS.
C. TY HALONG WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN SLIGHTLY AFTER
TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO BECOME FURTHER ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE LLCC WILL SPEED UP AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN
WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TOPOGRAPHICAL IMPACTS FROM
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF SHIKOKU AND WESTERN HONSHU. EXPECT ETT TO
BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE SEA OF JAPAN AND IS FULLY ABSORBED WITHIN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD PAST TAU
24, WITH A LARGE VARIATION IN THE STEERING FLOW THROUGH TAU 48. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE AVNO AND ECMF SOLUTIONS BUT BASED ON LARGE
VARIATION IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRON-
MENT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#363 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:14 am

Image

Much better organized with a small defined eye...
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#364 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:35 pm

00Z advisories:
WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 24.8N 131.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 27.2N 131.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 090000UTC 30.3N 131.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 100000UTC 35.3N 133.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 110000UTC 39.6N 136.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 120000UTC 44.1N 139.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT =

Image

WTPQ20 BABJ 070000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC
00HR 25.0N 131.7E 940HPA 48M/S
30KTS WINDS 440KM NORTHEAST
440KM SOUTHEAST
460KM SOUTHWEST
380KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 180KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
180KM SOUTHWEST
130KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 10KM/H
P+12HR 26.2N 131.7E 940HPA 48M/S
P+24HR 27.3N 131.3E 940HPA 48M/S
P+36HR 28.7N 131.1E 940HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 30.1N 131.0E 950HPA 42M/S
P+60HR 31.9N 131.2E 970HPA 35M/S
P+72HR 34.2N 132.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 40.1N 135.3E 998HPA 16M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 070000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 37
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070000UTC 25.0N 131.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 080000UTC 27.6N 131.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 090000UTC 30.4N 130.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 100000UTC 34.8N 132.8E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
96HR
POSITION 110000UTC 39.6N 136.9E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
120HR
POSITION 120000UTC 43.5N 139.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Observations from Minami-daito (http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-92011.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=65), which is just southwest of the eye, show sustained winds in the upper teens in (m/s) ~ 30-40kt range with a peak gust of so far of 33.5m/s~65kt from the NE at 09:10 local time (0010Z) and falling pressure.
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#365 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:00 pm

03Z JTWC advisory out:
WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.3N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.4N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 28.6N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.2N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.5N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.4N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 44.8N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 131.6E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#366 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:09 am

Image

Image

Amazing transformation...Look how big the eye is...

Those islands along the path are Minami and Daito Jima, home to over 2,000 people, which got the eywall
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#367 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:17 am

Image

Sweet...
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#368 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:17 pm

Could this just run the coast and hit the entirety of Japan?
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#369 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:42 pm

00Z advisories:
WTPQ51 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 27.3N 131.5E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 30.2N 131.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 100000UTC 35.2N 133.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 110000UTC 41.7N 135.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 120000UTC 45.3N 138.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
120HF 130000UTC 47.4N 139.4E 450NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Image

WTPQ20 BABJ 080000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC
00HR 27.3N 131.4E 945HPA 40M/S
30KTS WINDS 380KM NORTHEAST
380KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 120KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST
40KM SOUTHEAST
40KM SOUTHWEST
40KM NORTHWEST
MOVE N 12KM/H
P+12HR 28.6N 131.2E 945HPA 38M/S
P+24HR 29.8N 131.4E 940HPA 42M/S
P+36HR 31.3N 131.8E 945HPA 40M/S
P+48HR 33.6N 132.6E 960HPA 35M/S
P+60HR 36.9N 133.9E 970HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 41.1N 134.9E 980HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 46.5N 133.9E 990HPA 18M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 080000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 41
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080000UTC 27.3N 131.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 5KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 090000UTC 30.3N 131.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
48HR
POSITION 100000UTC 33.9N 132.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 74KT
72HR
POSITION 110000UTC 39.0N 136.0E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 120000UTC 43.5N 138.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 996HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Following up from yesterday, at Minami-Daito peak hourly sustained wind was 29.1 m/s ~ 56.5 kt, maximum gust yesterday was 44.5 m/s ~ 86.5 kt with minimum pressure reported of 954.1 mb. At both Kyuto (Minamidaito Airport) and Kita-Daito peak gust was 47.3 m/s ~ 92 kt.
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#370 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:23 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 27.3N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 28.5N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.0N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 31.9N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.7N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 40.6N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 46.9N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 131.6E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (GENEVIEVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
072325Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THINNING CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND AN INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE TIGHTLY-WRAPPING TOWARDS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTLOW. TY 11W IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED SOUTH OF CENTRAL JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, THE
STR IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS PRIOR
MAKING LANDFALL INTO SHIKOKU, JAPAN AFTER TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TY 11W
IS WELL INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OVER WESTERN JAPAN. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES
OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, TY HALONG WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 11W WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Equilibrium

#371 Postby Equilibrium » Fri Aug 08, 2014 3:51 am

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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#372 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:04 am

Image

Image

Nearing Japan...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#373 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:06 am

Image

Typhoon landfall...

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 45//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
CENTER. A 081159Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES ERODING CENTRAL, DEEP
CONVECTION, BUT STILL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND
METOP-A IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES OVER JAPAN AND THE EAST SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENING CORE
CONVECTION. TY 11W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY HALONG 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS DUE TO THE ENCROACHING
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SHIKOKU AND HONSHU AFTER TAU 24.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24. TY
11W IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST SEA AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#374 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:26 pm

Image

Image

While everyone is debating on how strong weak Iselle was at landfall, here we have a full blown typhoon headed for Mainland Japan...

Winds currently sustained at 70 knots...

The western eyewall impacting Kyushu and very strong rains over spreading north...
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#375 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:26 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 47//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
FAIRLY BROAD CENTER. A 081740Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS ERODING CENTRAL
CONVECTION, WITH SOME BANDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED
ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND AMSU-B IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE ESTIMATED DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES FROM RJTD AND PGTW. TY 11W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY HALONG 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE STR AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE
THERE IS SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR TO THE EAST WILL COUNTERACT ANY POTENTIAL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN
CENTRAL SHIKOKU BY TAU 24 AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TY 11W STARTS TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 48 AS HALONG GAINS COLD CORE
CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#376 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:30 pm

Image

Strengthening...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#377 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:53 pm

PGTW - 4.0

KNES - 4.5

Raw T - 5.1...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#378 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:06 am

Image

Image

Image

Now that's a large wind field...
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Equilibrium

#379 Postby Equilibrium » Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:58 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#380 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:17 am

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2014/08/09/typhoon-halong-becomes-deadly%E3%80%80%E5%8F%B0%E9%A2%A8%E3%80%80%EF%BC%91%EF%BC%91%E3%80%80/

Latest update on halong...Already 1 dead and flooding is reported everywhere...

Some areas reporting 15 inches of rain in just 48 hours and it hasn't even made landfall yet...
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