ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

euro6208 · #1241 Postby **euro6208** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:16 am

Weakest looking hurricane ever...if this was in the pacific, it would only be a 45-50 knot system based on dvorak which is only 3.0///

#1242 Postby **WilmingtonSandbar** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:17 am

euro6208 wrote:Weakest looking hurricane ever...if this was in the pacific, it would only be a 45-50 knot system based on dvorak which is only 3.0///

Might be because it is not a hurricane. It is still a TS.

euro6208 · #1243 Postby **euro6208** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:19 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Weakest looking hurricane ever...if this was in the pacific, it would only be a 45-50 knot system based on dvorak which is only 3.0///

Might be because it is not a hurricane. It is still a TS.

I meant near hurricane :lol:

xtyphooncyclonex · #1244 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:22 am

euro6208 wrote:Weakest looking hurricane ever...if this was in the pacific, it would only be a 45-50 knot system based on dvorak which is only 3.0///

Bertha is not yet a hurricane, but it is a high-end tropical storm strength. Don't be too reliant on Dvorak and satellite imagery, and the data is showing 55 kts and is the opposite of what happened to Arthur wherein satellite and Dvorak estimates were showing a cat 3 but ended up having cat 1-2 winds.

Anyway, Bertha has a more improved structure now. However, the convection is quite weak right now, it needs some time.

#1245 Postby **NDG** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:37 am

Bertha might have peaked this morning, at least for this morning, her NW quadrant circulation is becoming elongated and basically has no inflow from that quadrant and is getting caught in the shallow southerly flow into the eastern US's trough.

#1246 Postby **NDG** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:46 am

86 knots flight level winds!!!

133900 2723N 07324W 8430 01518 0043 +176 +176 169069 076 069 014 00
133930 2724N 07322W 8434 01538 0083 +167 +167 163080 086 069 026 00
134000 2725N 07321W 8423 01545 0080 +158 +158 162079 082 072 023 00
134030 2727N 07319W 8427 01547 0068 +167 +157 164084 085 069 012 00
134100 2728N 07318W 8429 01547 0073 +164 +161 167083 086 068 009 00
134130 2730N 07316W 8436 01546 0077 +170 +156 168079 084 065 007 03

Equilibrium · #1247 Postby **Equilibrium** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:54 am

The low is looking much better now its starting to look well wrapped and getting tighter.

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#1248 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:01 am

Dropsonde just measured 83 knots at the surface. Somehow, some way, this is a hurricane folks.

Edited to include drop info:

1006mb (29.71 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 23.3°C (73.9°F) 140° (from the SE) 83 knots (96 mph)

artist · #1249 Postby **artist** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:03 am

H. 1000 mb
I. 17 C / 1527 m
J. 24 C / 1531 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 1103A BERTHA OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 86 KT 064 / 17 NM 13:41:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 155/21 KTS

#1250 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:22 am

How high to go? That dropsonde is 86 kt at the surface or aloft? Otherwise the data supports 70 kt.

artist · #1251 Postby **artist** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:26 am

CrazyC83 wrote:How high to go? That dropsonde is 86 kt at the surface or aloft? Otherwise the data supports 70 kt.

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1006mb (Surface) 140° (from the SE) 83 knots (96 mph)

#1252 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:27 am

83kt at surface and a 90kt boundary layer average. LOL this is crazy.

#1253 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:33 am

That would be the ugliest looking Category 2 hurricane since Earl in 1998...but I think those are too high and unrepresentative.

#1254 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:36 am

Its a surface gust but it supports at least 70kt if not 75kt.

weathernerdguy · #1255 Postby **weathernerdguy** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:40 am

But then again, look at the surrounding pressures, and then look at the pressure, if it was a normal year, the pressure would be around 986-984 millibars.

galaxy401 · #1256 Postby **galaxy401** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:42 am

So we are 2 for 2 in hurricanes this season. Last year, 2 out of 14 became hurricanes. Bertha managed to become a hurricane with a pressure below 1000 after all.

artist · #1257 Postby **artist** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:44 am

...BERTHA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2014 ATLANTIC
SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

#1258 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:45 am

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

weathernerdguy · #1259 Postby **weathernerdguy** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:55 am

The world without recon.

artist · #1260 Postby **artist** » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:58 am

weathernerdguy wrote:The world without recon.

just think if there weren't and there were islands directly in its path, and that lack of warning they would recieve.

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