ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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weathernerdguy
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Re: Re:

#1261 Postby weathernerdguy » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:01 am

artist wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:The world without recon.

just think if there weren't and there were islands directly in its path, and that lack of warning they would recieve.

Yep, and this would just be a weak tropical storm, but little did they know it was a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1262 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:02 am

Only in the atlantic you see hurricanes a hurricane even though satellite data (which the world uses) doesn't support. Dare i say even Tropical storms...recon truly is something...

Too bad these recon planes don't penetrate the strong typhoons over here...
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1263 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:23 am

Certainly not the prettiest hurricane I've ever seen. Satellite appearance is indicative of a weak, sheared TS.
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#1264 Postby artist » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:32 am

surface highest obs 39 82.85 mph
pressure 1000.3
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#1265 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:36 am

Another surface gust (or very short-sustained wind) in the 80s of knots has recently been reported by dropsonde.

1006mb (29.71 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 150° (from the SSE) 81 knots (93 mph)
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#1266 Postby artist » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:45 am

pressure down to 999
H. 999 mb
I. 18 C / 1521 m
J. 23 C / 1531 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN S-NW
M. C22
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 1103A BERTHA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 86 KT 144 / 25 NM 13:41:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 81 KT 081 / 8 NM 15:21:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185/18 KTS
;
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#1267 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:01 am

Latest satellite image. Perhaps a developing eye in there (as mentioned by recon)? Also perhaps a bit too early to tell...
Image
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1268 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:20 am

I'm surprised the storm made it to be this strong. Doing better than last year, at least so far we are.
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#1269 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:30 am

This storm is a hurricane now? wow!
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#1270 Postby artist » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:30 am

I have to go, can someone take over recon?
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#1271 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:39 am

Bertha and Arthur have both really demonstrated the value of recon vs satellite intensity estimates. Arthur was putting up T - numbers indicative of a Cat3, and Bertha here would probably be 50kt if it was only based on satellite. This is a really unique storm, quite a nice surprise!
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#1272 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:49 am

I agree the system doesn't look that great as far as what we would expect to see from even a CAT 1 hurricane. The SAT imagery is quite deceiving in this case.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1273 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:59 am

Bertha was telepgraphing strengthening yesterday with that consolidation and compacting.


It's what we'll see following it in a few weeks that is on my mind.


Heavy rain here. Maybe from Bertha enhancing the front.


The Florida convection is hinting at rotation. If Bertha wasn't there I'd be watching it.


There's a hint of an eye on Bertha.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1274 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:27 pm

Not the best looking hurricane. Should be nearing its peak though. This was a good storm for the islands as Bertha brought some good rains to the area......MGC
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#1275 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:37 pm

Based on that data, maybe up to 75 kt?
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1276 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:43 pm

Being embedded inside the anomalous west atlantic ridge is probably elevating the wind speeds. Granted it still counts towards storm intensity. This is why east coast hurricanes have traditionally featured very strong winds on the east side.
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#1277 Postby artist » Mon Aug 04, 2014 2:03 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1278 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 2:57 pm

I just can't believe this is a hurricane. I can't even identify a well-defined LLC on visible loops.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1279 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just can't believe this is a hurricane. I can't even identify a well-defined LLC on visible loops.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Bertha5.JPG


If I didn't know any better I'd say it might be time to make this an Invest.
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Re: Re:

#1280 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:06 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:NHC did a great job forecasting the track with Bertha.


they are very very good with track inside 72 hours and very good at 5 days and getting better each year..very difficult forecasting with all the variables in place to nail it like they do literally within a few miles either way of the track forecast and when you look at the mean they are almost dead on


Click this link to see an animated loop archive of the 5-day graphic for Bertha and the NHC was pretty much dead on from the beginning with the track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/graphics/al03/loop_5W.shtml
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