ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1281 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just can't believe this is a hurricane. I can't even identify a well-defined LLC on visible loops.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Bertha5.JPG


Here, I marked it for you, she is one ugly hurricane, doubt that recon will find that she is still a hurricane, IMO. Outflows going everywhere, there is even one from the storms by the Bahamas going into Bertha's circulation.

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#1282 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:10 pm

This looks like scrambled eggs....



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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1283 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:12 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I just can't believe this is a hurricane. I can't even identify a well-defined LLC on visible loops.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Bertha5.JPG


If I didn't know any better I'd say it might be time to make this an Invest.


Perhaps recon was measuring winds from collapsing squalls NE of the weak center earlier today? Recon just passed NE of the center and found a peak FL wind of 54 knots with a surface pressure 1003.7mb. No way this is a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1284 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:40 pm

No doubt it's broken down badly.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1285 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:44 pm

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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1286 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:47 pm

NHC didn't downgrade it, but they have to question whether it is really a hurricane. They're just waiting for the complete recon report before downgrading, I suppose.

From the discussion:

Flight-level wind data from that earlier mission
also showed that the circulation had a very small extent over the
northwestern quadrant, and high-resolution visible imagery shows low
clouds moving northwestward, away from the center, not far from the
center over that quadrant. This suggests that, if the environmental
low-level flow increases, Bertha may have a difficult time
maintaining a closed circulation.
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Did someone make an error or is ADT failing?

#1287 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 04, 2014 3:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just can't believe this is a hurricane. I can't even identify a well-defined LLC on visible loops.

I can't believe it either, when I heard on TV it became one I thought how? This is more mind-blowing than annular category 4 hurricane Iselle in the Epac. On satellite it looks like a sheared TD (I agree with it might be time to make it an invest but I've seen better looking waves :lol: ). You might be right about this being a very rare mistake (recon measuring winds from collapsing squalls) but if its found not to be one, just point to this as an example why satellite estimates can't be trusted.
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#1288 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:11 pm

Could a post-analysis be done that could possibly revert Bertha back to only attaining T.S. status?
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Re:

#1289 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:Could a post-analysis be done that could possibly revert Bertha back to only attaining T.S. status?

Will a post-season analysis be performed? Yes. Will they downgrade it to a tropical storm? No. Why would they? Recon found plenty of evidence to support a 80 mph cyclone this morning.

People need to understand that the only difference between tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes is wind.
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#1290 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:29 pm

It's still a hurricane via recon.
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#1291 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:40 pm

What a fantastic couple days in the tropics. Typhoon bombed out to cat 5 intensity, we have an annular cat 4 in the Pacific, a tropical cyclone is about to become a double basin crosser, we have another storm in the EPac that could become another major, and the strangest hurricane in the Atlantic you'll see for along time.

Just waiting for someone to say "this year has been boring" in the next week or two.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1292 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:45 pm

A few things to note as to why I don't think the hurricane upgrade was mistaken. The pressure dropped significantly yesterday, from 1012 to 998 in about 12 hours, the wind was likely catching up to this, in addition to the fact that because of the small size and higher than normal pressure around it, this caused a sharp pressure gradient, and small storms like this can spin up very quickly (and spin down just as quickly.)
Bonnie in 2004 in the Gulf, also a very small system, spun up and back down fairly quickly on two separate occasions, but didn't make it to hurricane due to higher shear and less of a pressure gradient.
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Re:

#1293 Postby weathernerdguy » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:46 pm

RL3AO wrote:What a fantastic couple days in the tropics. Typhoon bombed out to cat 5 intensity, we have an annular cat 4 in the Pacific, a tropical cyclone is about to become a double basin crosser, we have another storm in the EPac that could become another major, and the strangest hurricane in the Atlantic you'll see for along time.

Just waiting for someone to say "this year has been boring" in the next week or two.

This season has been boring. Lol.
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Re: Re:

#1294 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:48 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:
RL3AO wrote:What a fantastic couple days in the tropics. Typhoon bombed out to cat 5 intensity, we have an annular cat 4 in the Pacific, a tropical cyclone is about to become a double basin crosser, we have another storm in the EPac that could become another major, and the strangest hurricane in the Atlantic you'll see for along time.

Just waiting for someone to say "this year has been boring" in the next week or two.

This season has been boring. Lol.


Only in the Atlantic will you see the strangest hurricanes. :P
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1295 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:39 pm

I am very surprised to see this a 75 mph hurricane. Looks more like an Invest to me.
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Re: Re:

#1296 Postby weathernerdguy » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:17 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:
RL3AO wrote:What a fantastic couple days in the tropics. Typhoon bombed out to cat 5 intensity, we have an annular cat 4 in the Pacific, a tropical cyclone is about to become a double basin crosser, we have another storm in the EPac that could become another major, and the strangest hurricane in the Atlantic you'll see for along time.

Just waiting for someone to say "this year has been boring" in the next week or two.

This season has been boring. Lol.


Only in the Atlantic will you see the strangest hurricanes. :P

I know right, the Atlantic is coming back to the low activity era (no?) but, it is still bringing in surprises!
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1297 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:21 pm

Hurricane_Luis wrote:I am very surprised to see this a 75 mph hurricane. Looks more like an Invest to me.


Forecasters at the NHC were waiting for the recon data before downgrading. Data seem to suggest a 40-45 kt TS.
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#1298 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:23 pm

Very likely downgraded next time the BT update comes out.
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Re: ATL: BERTHA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1299 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:24 pm

Bertha's LLC is now almost 100% exposed, no way she's still a hurricane.

Image
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#1300 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:41 pm

She was a fighter from the start, definitely feeling effects of the trof I'd say this is about her last hurrah. She goes with Ingrid last year of being one of the most unattractive looking gals for a hurricane during that stage. 2/2/0 for the Atlantic! I believe the last time we started with 2 Hurricanes was 1983 via Alicia and Barry.
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