CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:28 pm

EP, 95, 2014072918, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1134W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 75, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014073000, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1147W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 75, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014073006, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1160W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 75, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014073012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1172W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 75, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014073018, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1185W, 20, 1009, DB,
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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:47 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 33 47 61 69 73 72 74 74 72
V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 33 47 61 69 73 72 74 74 72
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 34 39 44 50 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 10 12 12 11 8 15 8 7 2 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 -1 -6 0 -3 -4 -7 -5 -3 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 298 297 318 338 352 17 21 19 24 42 73 29 298
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.2 25.7
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2014 6:36 pm

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains disorganized. However, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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#4 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:38 pm

Could be our next hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:48 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 310043
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952014) 20140731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140731 0000 140731 1200 140801 0000 140801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 119.9W 11.4N 121.8W 12.2N 123.5W 13.0N 125.3W
BAMD 10.7N 119.9W 11.0N 121.4W 11.5N 122.9W 12.0N 124.3W
BAMM 10.7N 119.9W 11.0N 121.6W 11.6N 123.1W 12.3N 124.4W
LBAR 10.7N 119.9W 11.0N 122.2W 11.5N 124.7W 12.1N 127.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 36KTS 51KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 36KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140802 0000 140803 0000 140804 0000 140805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 126.8W 14.9N 129.6W 16.6N 132.6W 18.1N 135.9W
BAMD 12.5N 125.7W 13.9N 128.5W 15.6N 131.8W 17.4N 134.5W
BAMM 13.1N 125.6W 15.1N 128.4W 17.3N 131.9W 19.0N 135.2W
LBAR 12.9N 130.5W 14.4N 136.8W 14.5N 142.1W 12.9N 143.9W
SHIP 62KTS 72KTS 71KTS 66KTS
DSHP 62KTS 72KTS 71KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 119.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 117.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 114.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:20 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 36 51 62 72 72 72 71 69 66
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 36 51 62 72 72 72 71 69 66
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 39 43 45 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 12 7 14 7 8 10 4 5 8 11
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#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:29 pm

Not bad, but I would wait for consistency before believing that this will be our next hurricane.
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Re:

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:37 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Not bad, but I would wait for consistency before believing that this will be our next hurricane.


There has been some. Look at the 2014 EPAC season thread. It has 4 days; if it organizes really quickly, it could be a major.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:40 pm

GFS still shows borderline hurricane

Image

So is NOGAPS

Image
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:34 am

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:51 am

Image

GFS 0z again shows a very similar system.
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#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 31, 2014 1:57 am

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 45 59 68 74 75 75 73 68 62
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 45 59 68 74 75 75 73 68 62
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 38 42 47 51 53 53 49
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 8 13 14 12 16 5 3 8 16 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -5 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -2 0 -6 -4 3
SHEAR DIR 322 331 340 347 7 33 38 39 45 116 232 249 242
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.4 25.4 24.7 24.5
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#13 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:47 am

Similar to Flossie's setup. Let's see if it can survive the great Hawaiian shear.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:46 am

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re:

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:52 am

Kingarabian wrote:Similar to Flossie's setup. Let's see if it can survive the great Hawaiian shear.


The track the GFS shows is more like a Jova 05 or a Guillermo 09.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:56 am

Image

GFS makes this a minimal hurricane

Image

NOGAPS does as well, but CMC favors the one behind it
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:49 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952014 07/31/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 47 57 65 68 70 68 65 60 54
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 47 57 65 68 70 68 65 60 54
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 37 39 40 39 37 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 13 9 11 8 13 16 7 1 7 15 25 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 -3 0 1 -3 -7 -2 -2 -6 -2 2 0
SHEAR DIR 332 333 345 3 17 15 23 36 29 230 237 228 270
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.8
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#18 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:00 pm

the big US threat of the year. EC shows a powerful cane striking Hawaii
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Re:

#19 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Jul 31, 2014 1:23 pm

Alyono wrote:the big US threat of the year. EC shows a powerful cane striking Hawaii


Didn't you say not to trust the EC in the deep tropics?

I still trust the EC at least as much as I trust any other model in the deep tropics, but I definitely do not think a powerful cane will strike Hawaii from this angle because many storms have attempted to do so and they unanimously collapse before making it there. Flossie wasn't anything special really, not was it surprising.
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Re:

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:15 pm

Alyono wrote:the big US threat of the year. EC shows a powerful cane striking Hawaii


Which run is that? All the Euro runs I'm looking at show a very weak TS/TD just missing Hawaii.
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