CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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Frank2
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1221 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:39 am

Take a good look at the satellite loop above this post. The LLC is way west of Hawaii. It decoupled from the MLC. lt's the MLC that is making landfall on the island now. Center is near where my crosshairs are on the image below. This explains the sudden slow-down of the storm. It didn't slow down, it made landfall and is continuing west. It's the mid level center that is hanging way behind. Note the lower pressures on the west side of Hawaii.


You're right - that's really something....
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1222 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:41 am

Sanibel wrote:The eyewall came in right over the lava flats where the magma empties into the ocean.

Where the eye came in is barren land and the volcanic east slope of Muana Loa. There's nothing there.


There is no eye.
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#1223 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:44 am

I suppose among the research meteorologists there will be arguments that in fact it never made landfall at all, if the LLC was south of the island and/or whether an MLC making landfall constitutes an actual landfall?

Interesting...
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1224 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:56 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Sanibel wrote:The eyewall came in right over the lava flats where the magma empties into the ocean.

Where the eye came in is barren land and the volcanic east slope of Muana Loa. There's nothing there.


There is no eye.


I assume he means center of circulation.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1225 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:58 am

Kathryn Prociv @KathrynProciv · 12m

Why the sharp cut-off to the precip? The radar beam can't shoot above the steep terrain, capped by 13,678ft Manau Loa
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1226 Postby tallywx » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:00 am

It will be interesting to see if any damage reports come out of Pahala. The MLC (LLC?) appeared to tighten up dramatically as it slammed into the SE face of Mauna Loa. I wonder if that spun up some fierce winds immediately around the center in a very localized area.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1227 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:05 am

tallywx wrote:It will be interesting to see if any damage reports come out of Pahala. The MLC (LLC?) appeared to tighten up dramatically as it slammed into the SE face of Mauna Loa. I wonder if that spun up some fierce winds immediately around the center in a very localized area.


Probs. The last min flare up, as well as the much slower than expected motion, is not good for Hawaii.
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#1228 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:06 am

Frank2 wrote:I suppose among the research meteorologists there will be arguments that in fact it never made landfall at all, if the LLC was south of the island and/or whether an MLC making landfall constitutes an actual landfall?

Interesting...


I somewhat doubt the LLC passed south of the island since it is either onshore now or due west of it.
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#1229 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:11 am

OK, so it wasn't a Hurricane at landfall meaning the 22 year span hasn't fallen, but it did make landfall as a named storm arriving from the east making it the first ever to do so, correct?
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Re:

#1230 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:19 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:OK, so it wasn't a Hurricane at landfall meaning the 22 year span hasn't fallen, but it did make landfall as a named storm arriving from the east making it the first ever to do so, correct?


First since 1958, but that looks iffy if it was a TS at landfall.
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#1231 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:23 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:OK, so it wasn't a Hurricane at landfall meaning the 22 year span hasn't fallen, but it did make landfall as a named storm arriving from the east making it the first ever to do so, correct?


That requires a complicated answer for scientists to determine in post-storm reanalysis. :lol: It was an exceedingly rare event regardless.

This definitely is not over yet either. Convection keeps erupting over the southeast coast, and we could be looking at a flood disaster unfolding.

Image
Last edited by somethingfunny on Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1232 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:23 am

Iselle's low-level center is clearly well west of Hawaii. Everyone (media) appears to be tracking the mid-level center. Of course, there is no weather associated with the LLC.

Image
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1233 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:25 am

I thought I saw them separating last night as I saw the LLC move through well before the MLC did as the shear completely severed the two and it was likely a TS at landfall.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1234 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:26 am

wxman57 wrote:Iselle's low-level center is clearly well west of Hawaii. Everyone (media) appears to be tracking the mid-level center. Of course, there is no weather associated with the LLC.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Iselle8.jpg


I got this mixed up myself then. I thought the LLC was trapped by the mountain while the MLC was able to traverse over the island. How does the low-level circulation move through or around Mauna Loa without its' mid-level pair?
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1235 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:28 am

wxman57 wrote:Iselle's low-level center is clearly well west of Hawaii. Everyone (media) appears to be tracking the mid-level center. Of course, there is no weather associated with the LLC.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Iselle8.jpg



When did the LLC in your eyes make landfall if at all?

CPHC has it over Hawaii in the ATCF likely for continuity
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1236 Postby tallywx » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:30 am

somethingfunny wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Iselle's low-level center is clearly well west of Hawaii. Everyone (media) appears to be tracking the mid-level center. Of course, there is no weather associated with the LLC.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Iselle8.jpg


I got this mixed up myself then. I thought the LLC was trapped by the mountain while the MLC was able to traverse over the island. How does the low-level circulation move through or around Mauna Loa without its' mid-level pair?


I think it's more complicated than that. Whenever you get strong NE winds through the gap between the Big Island and Maui, you often times get a pretty large counterclockwise eddy that forms on the west side of the Big Island. I think that's what happened here. That's not to say that it won't take over as the predominant circulation as the main one (LLC/MLC whatever) gets hung up on Mauna Loa.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1237 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:35 am

Yellow Evan wrote:When did the LLC in your eyes make landfall if at all?

CPHC has it over Hawaii in the ATCF likely for continuity


That's hard to say. The LLC separated from the MLC as it was obscured by higher clouds. All we have to go by is the observation at Hilo. The LLC probably made landfall early this morning CDT, about when it was originally forecast to make landfall (around sunset yesterday in Hawaii).

Note that my position on the LLC currently is where the models have been predicting the LLC would be right now. None of the models was forecasting a landfall in the last hour or two. The forecast was for landfall around 7-8pm HST, which is around midnight to early morning CDT.
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#1238 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:51 am

Too bad none of the webcams work. Really would be interesting to see what is going on just south of Hilo near Pahala.
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#1239 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:57 am

Tropical Storm ISELLE Advisory Number 34
Issued at 500 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 19.3N 156.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 50 MPH...85 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 290 degrees AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY.
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#1240 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:58 am

Looks like pretty much all of the Big Island, Maui, and Oahu are getting rain.
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