CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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Re: Re:

#1281 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:43 pm

Equilibrium wrote:
JonathanBelles wrote:Tonight's Post on Iselle and Julio: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/08/is ... volcanoes/


The 91 mph was that just a gust ? if not it was a cane.

Selected Maximum Winds as of This Morning:

Mauna Kea – 91 mph
Oahu Forest – 72 mph
Kula – 61 mph
Malokai – 57 mph
Hilo Harbor – 56 mph
Kona Int’l – 45 mph
Honolulu – 41 mph
South Point – 33 mph


It was a gust. And yes, it was not at sea level.
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Equilibrium

#1282 Postby Equilibrium » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:49 pm

Was thinking along the lines of it is natural land mass not a man made structure so in reality the summit is the land surface at that point hence climb to the surface of the volcano.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1283 Postby supercane » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:50 pm

WTPA43 PHFO 090234
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
ISELLE. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONICALLY
ROTATING SHOWERY CLOUDS...AND SEVERAL SMALLER CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
EDDIES THAT ARE GENERATED BY THE STRONG FLOW CHANNELLED BETWEEN THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE KAUAI RADAR INDICATES 40 KT VELOCITIES NEAR
THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER AT ABOUT 8000 FEET...AND THE LAST
RECONNAISSANCE PASS INDICATED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS REMAIN AT 850 MB IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED
TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ISELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN.
BIG MAHALOS TO THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
AND THE NOAA G-IV PERSONNEL FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND LONG HOURS
PROVIDING US EXTREMELY VALUABLE DATA IN OUR ANALYSES FOR ISELLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 20.0N 159.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.4N 161.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.7N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.9N 165.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 21.2N 168.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1284 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:22 pm

Curious to think what others think how strong this made landfall...

I'd say 55 knots...
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Equilibrium

#1285 Postby Equilibrium » Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:29 pm

Image

Check out those gravity waves shooting off JULIO into Hawaii.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1286 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 09, 2014 4:01 am

Dead
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

#1287 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 09, 2014 6:25 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

MISSING WORD ADDED TO FIRST PARAGRAPH

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE REMNANT OF ISELLE AND SATELLITE ANALYSTS HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO DETERMINE DATA T-NUMBERS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL FROM SATELLITE
IMAGERY IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION PERSISTS...BUT WINDS AT NOAA BUOY
51003 HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INDICATING A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW REMAINS.

THE KAUAI RADAR SHOWS 40 KT VELOCITIES ALOFT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT
OF THE REMNANT LOW. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY DOWN TO 30 KT IN THE
NORTH QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.

NORTHWEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING NORTHWEST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD INHIBIT REDEVELOPMENT OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW
OPENING UP TO A TROUGH BY MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 20.3N 160.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.6N 162.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z 21.0N 165.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1800Z 21.2N 167.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 21.5N 170.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 23.6N 175.3W...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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Equilibrium

#1288 Postby Equilibrium » Sat Aug 09, 2014 7:07 am

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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

#1289 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 09, 2014 8:55 am

Kauai is getting drenched by Iselle's remnants.
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Iceman56

Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#1290 Postby Iceman56 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Per the NHC "tradition" the word "dangerous" is only used for hurricanes measured to be Cat 3 or higher...

Dangerous because:
1. Hurricanes are rare in Hawaii, residents aren't used to them.
2. Building codes aren't that great.
3. Lot's of ocean around the islands, and a lot of activities take place on these beaches.
4. The islands are all very mountainous to an extent. Winds on these heights can be deadly.
5. On the big island, those who do not live in dense Hilo, live far from each other and emergency help may take a while to get places in need.

I don't remember the NHC preaching hurricane Ike as dangerous as I would like. But look at its aftermath. Better to be safe than sorry.


Those are EXACTLY the reasons I chose to use "DANGEROUS" in my TCP headlines. Because it damn sure was dangerous, and an extremely rare situation for Hawaii that hasn't happened in 22 years! I don't limit myself to bureaucratic rules and irrelevant artificial categories when I am trying to help the public to clearly understand the situation. As we say here in Hawaii, "This ain't the mainland!"
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#1291 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:07 pm

Iceman56 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Per the NHC "tradition" the word "dangerous" is only used for hurricanes measured to be Cat 3 or higher...

Dangerous because:
1. Hurricanes are rare in Hawaii, residents aren't used to them.
2. Building codes aren't that great.
3. Lot's of ocean around the islands, and a lot of activities take place on these beaches.
4. The islands are all very mountainous to an extent. Winds on these heights can be deadly.
5. On the big island, those who do not live in dense Hilo, live far from each other and emergency help may take a while to get places in need.

I don't remember the NHC preaching hurricane Ike as dangerous as I would like. But look at its aftermath. Better to be safe than sorry.


Those are EXACTLY the reasons I chose to use "DANGEROUS" in my TCP headlines. Because it damn sure was dangerous, and an extremely rare situation for Hawaii that hasn't happened in 22 years! I don't limit myself to bureaucratic rules and irrelevant artificial categories when I am trying to help the public to clearly understand the situation. As we say here in Hawaii, "This ain't the mainland!"



Rajjah dat braddah. You should use some pidgin in your discussions sometime.
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Image

Iceman56

Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#1292 Postby Iceman56 » Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:38 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

Rajjah dat braddah. You should use some pidgin in your discussions sometime.


Did you read my 5 pm 8/8 TCD for Iselle? You might like that. :)
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#1293 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:44 pm

Iceman56 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:

Rajjah dat braddah. You should use some pidgin in your discussions sometime.


Did you read my 5 pm 8/8 TCD for Iselle? You might like that. :)


No I didn't.

Edit: LOL.

BIG MAHALOS TO THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
AND THE NOAA G-IV PERSONNEL FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND LONG HOURS
PROVIDING US EXTREMELY VALUABLE DATA IN OUR ANALYSES FOR ISELLE.


PRetty moke' ahh.
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#1294 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 09, 2014 5:06 pm

Hawaii radar still looks pretty active. It's gone for the most part for everywhere but Kauai though.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

#1295 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:00 am

Close up of the Big Island when Iselle passed by.
Animation is presented in RGB, Funktop and Rainbow enhancements.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnXcUZ7AzEo[/youtube]
Courtesy NOAA SSD/GOES.
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Equilibrium

#1296 Postby Equilibrium » Sun Aug 10, 2014 8:54 am

Image
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

#1297 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:15 am

Great loop!
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#1298 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:07 am

Gone off CPHC TWO, BTW.
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