CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

OK, so where's this turkey going? Still going to miss to the north or will it drop far enough south to be a problem?

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane JULIO Advisory Number 19
Issued at 500 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 18.2N 141.9W
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 105 MPH...165 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 966 MB...28.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

HURRICANE JULIO IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
LESS THAN OPTIMAL SSTS. SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED 15 NM WIDE
EYE AND A PARTICULARLY WEAK NORTHWEST EYEWALL. JULIO/S INTENSITY
LIKELY PEAKED AS IT CROSSED 140W BUT...IN RETROSPECT...THE 06Z
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT WAS A BIT GENEROUS. JULIO IS NOW
OBVIOUSLY WEAKENING...AND LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4.5...BY JTWC...TO 5.0...BY CPHC AND SAB. THE
UW-CIMSS ADT IS ALSO 5.0. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT A NOTICEABLY LOWER 90 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 35N140W THROUGH
37N180W. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY DISPLAYED A WIDER SPREAD
OVER THE PAST THREE OR FOUR FORECAST CYCLES...WITH GFS AND TVCN
CONSENSUS ABRUPTLY SWINGING FAR TO THE RIGHT LAST TIME.
HOWEVER...TVCN CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS HANDLED JULIO RATHER WELL SO
FAR...IS MUCH BETTER BEHAVED THIS TIME. WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
285/14 KT...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS TVCN QUITE CLOSELY AND HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM LAST TIME. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT...WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIO NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD WATCH
DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 120
HOURS...WITH SST CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FACTOR. ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AFTER 12
HOURS AS JULIO APPROACHES AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH SHEAR MAGNITUDE NEAR 15 KT FROM 18 HOURS
ONWARD. JULIO IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT 48
HOURS...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL STORM FROM 48 TO 120
HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.2N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.8N 144.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.7N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 20.7N 149.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.9N 152.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 24.3N 156.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 26.0N 161.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 27.1N 165.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[CrazyC83]

I'd say the BT peak intensity is either coming down to 100 kt, or the 105 kt will move back to 0000Z instead of 0600Z.

[hurricanes1234]

10E JULIO 140808 1800 18.3N 142.7W EPAC 90 966

Remains at 90 knots.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HURRICANE JULIO CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. A SMALL 15 NM WIDE EYE IS STILL APPARENT IN
BOTH VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 5.0 FROM
CPHC. UW-CIMSS ADT CAME IN AT 5.3. THUS WE WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT 90 KT FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.

JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. THIS IS BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DURING
THAT TIME. THUS THE GENERAL SPREAD IS FOR EITHER A MORE NORTHWEST
TRACK OR A CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING JULIO ON BASICALLY A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 5. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT...WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIO
NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...INTERESTS THERE
SHOULD WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
JULIO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UW-CIMSS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 8 KT
OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR WITH SHIPS SHOWING ABOUT 4 KT OF WESTERLY
SHEAR. MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG WITH
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.5N 143.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.1N 145.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.2N 148.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 21.4N 150.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 22.5N 153.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 24.7N 158.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 26.5N 162.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 27.7N 167.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[WeatherGuesser]

Not looking like it will affect the Islands.

[cycloneye]

Air Force plane is flying towards Julio so let's see how strong it is when it makes the first pass. 00z Best Track has it at 85kts.

EP, 10, 2014080900, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1440W, 85, 970, HU

[Kingarabian]

Not looking like it will affect the Islands.

Yeah. But still, it's good to pay attention just incase. Iselle was once forecast to go north as well.

[Kingarabian]

I think if it weakens/loses deep cloud tops then it may go take a more western track than thought. Like what happened to Iselle. But right now, models are in great agreement with that ridge. Not going to build back anytime soon to force Julio west.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HURRICANE JULIO CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. A SMALL 15 NM WIDE EYE IS STILL APPARENT IN
BOTH VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF FILLING IN. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM SAB AND 5.0 FROM BOTH CPHC AND JTWC.
UW-CIMSS ADT CAME IN AT 5.4. WITH THE SLIGHT WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS
AROUND THE CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY JUST
SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. THIS IS BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME. THUS THE MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS IS
FOR EITHER A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK OR A CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING JULIO ON BASICALLY A WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH DAY 5. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT...WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIO NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
JULIO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UW-CIMSS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE
SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS NOW ABOUT 14 KT WHILE
SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER AT AROUND 8 KT. MODELS INDICATE A BIT
MORE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND IS A
BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 18.9N 144.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.6N 146.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.6N 149.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 21.6N 152.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.9N 154.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 24.9N 159.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 26.6N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.7N 169.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA24 PHFO 090830
TCMCP4

HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JULIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 146.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 85NW.
34 KT.......150NE 60SE 50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 146.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 145.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.1N 148.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 85NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...145NE 60SE 50SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.2N 150.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...135NE 55SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.4N 152.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...135NE 55SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.4N 155.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 55SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 158.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 45SE 45SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 26.3N 160.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.8N 164.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 146.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA44 PHFO 090910
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

A 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT ENROUTE FROM THE
U.S. MAINLAND FLEW THROUGH POWERFUL HURRICANE JULIO A SHORT TIME
AGO...AND PROVIDED SOME EXTREMELY USEFUL DATA FOR THIS OPEN OCEAN
HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS CLOSE
TO OUR EXPECTATIONS...THE SAMPLING OF THE OUTER WIND RADII WERE VERY
USEFUL. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS INDICATED THE WIND RADII
NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE THE RADII
WERE REDUCED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR JULIO...THE PARTIALLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE
IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL BUT PART OF THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION OF SOME OF THE DRY AIR THAT IS
LIKELY BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
AND SHIPS ESTIMATE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS VALUES OF 10 TO 12
KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR IN THE
APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF CURRENT
INTENSITY RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM AT SAB TO 5.0 FROM BOTH PHFO AND JTWC.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT
THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS REASONABLE AGAIN FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 14 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS
INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS NOT AS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE
RIGHT AND SOME SLOWING STARTING AROUND THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS
NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEN THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING SLOWING FROM DAY 2 THROUGH 5 COMPARED WITH
THE PREVIOUS VERSION.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF JULIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS OUTPUT
SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SST VALUES OF ABOUT 26 TO
27C ALONG THE TRACK. OF NOTE IS THE CIRA ESTIMATE OF OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT...WHICH SHOWS INCREASING VALUES OF THIS PARAMETER STARTING
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SINCE THE LATEST TRACK IS
SLOWER THAN BEFORE WHEN JULIO IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ALL INTERESTS ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD WATCH FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF JULIO THIS WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.5N 146.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.1N 148.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.2N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 22.4N 152.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 23.4N 155.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 25.0N 158.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 26.3N 160.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 27.8N 164.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Kingarabian]

WTPA44 PHFO 091514
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2014

ANOTHER 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT HAS JUST LEFT
JULIO. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO HELP US WITH
DETERMINING THE LATEST MOTION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IN A
NORMALLY DATA VOID REGION FAR EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
SAMPLING OF THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO SHOW THE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY
BE DECREASING. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 94
KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL YIELDS AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED
OF ABOUT 85 KT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM AT SAB TO 5.0 FROM BOTH PHFO AND JTWC. THE
AIRCRAFT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS REASONABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...THE SAMPLING OF THE OUTER WIND RADII WERE AGAIN VERY
USEFUL...WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL EXPANSION OF THESE VALUES IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THE INTERMITTENTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE
IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
QUADRANTS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR THAT IS BEING ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOW VALUES OF ABOUT 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST IMPACTING THE SYSTEM.

JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 14 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST
RECENT OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT WAS 12 HOURS
AGO. THIS GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR GFDL...CONTINUES TO NUDGE JULIO
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE RIGHT...WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED
STARTING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE STEERING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 24 HOURS. THEN THERE IS SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
FROM 36 HOURS THROUGH DAY 5 COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS VERSION...
WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF JULIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS OUTPUT
SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SST VALUES OF ABOUT 26 TO
27C ALONG THE TRACK. THE LATEST ESTIMATE OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
PROVIDED BY CIRA SHOWS INCREASING VALUES OF THIS PARAMETER STARTING
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
WEAKENING COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SINCE THE LATEST
TRACK STILL KEEPS JULIO NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ALL
INTERESTS ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD WATCH FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF
JULIO THIS WEEKEND IN CASE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
REQUIRED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.1N 147.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.9N 149.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 22.0N 151.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 23.5N 153.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.7N 155.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 26.3N 158.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 28.0N 161.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 29.9N 165.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like a pretty stead state system.

[Kingarabian]

I see nothing to force it west unless some super shear kicks in. Hawaii dodges a bullet with this one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

It definitely looks like it will miss to the north.

The worst case for Hawaii is a storm hitting the western tip of Oahu from the south (Iniki but farther east)?

[Equilibrium]

Just 1 out liner has a steep drop.

[JonathanBelles]

Tonight's post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/08/09/ju ... eavy-rain/

[bamajammer4eva]

Nice image of CPAC wind flow

Animated at
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,18.92,751