CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

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#221 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:52 pm

EP, 10, 2014081100, , BEST, 0, 252N, 1532W, 75, 984, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 90, 80, 100, 1014, 210, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081100, , BEST, 0, 252N, 1532W, 75, 984, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 40, 40, 1014, 210, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081100, , BEST, 0, 252N, 1532W, 75, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 10, 20, 15, 1014, 210, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#222 Postby supercane » Sun Aug 10, 2014 9:55 pm

WTPA44 PHFO 110247
TCDCP4
HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2014

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER IN THE EYE OF JULIO...TO THE POINT THAT IT HAS BECOME
INDISCERNIBLE. HOWEVER...2018Z/2331Z AMSU-B PASSES AND A 2229Z GCOM
PASS CONFIRMED WHAT AIR FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LAST
REPORTED BEFORE DEPARTING JULIO THIS MORNING...THAT THE EYE
CONTINUES TO PERSIST...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE DETERIORATION OF THE SOUTHERN
EYEWALL. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES RANGED FROM 4.0/65KT TO
4.5/77KT. WITH THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF JULIO SLIGHTLY
DEGRADED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS
LOWERED TO 75 KT.
WITH JULIO NO LONGER DEEMED TO BE A THREAT TO THE STATE OF
HAWAII...RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE CYCLONE HAVE ENDED.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CPHC IS GRATEFUL FOR THE ABUNDANCE OF TIMELY
IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY THE AIRCRAFT IN BOTH JULIO AND
ISELLE. IN ADDITION...AFTER PROVIDING DATA ON JULIO THIS MORNING...
THE AIRCRAFT COLLABORATED WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD IN A SEARCH AND
RESCUE MISSION INVOLVING A DISTRESSED SAILING VESSEL CAUGHT IN
JULIO/S CIRCULATION.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. JULIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
EAST AND A LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH
OF JULIO IS DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE BRIEFLY
REBUILDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PLACE JULIO IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING
WINDS. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN
RESPONSE...WITH A JOG TOWARD WEST EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 60.
ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE JULIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
5...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED THAT DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY
AS EARLIER.
ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JULIO GAINING LATITUDE...SSTS
ALONG THE TRACK ACTUALLY INCREASE UNTIL DAY 3...DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HAWAII. DESPITE THIS...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS. SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY
DIMINISH IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AT THE LATER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 25.5N 153.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 26.5N 154.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.3N 155.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 28.1N 156.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 28.8N 157.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 30.6N 158.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 32.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 36.0N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#223 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:51 am

I must say, this month has been amazingly active thus far in terms of tropical cyclones.

And also, this is my first storm I'm tracking north of Hawaii.
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#224 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:08 am

WTPA44 PHFO 110921
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2014

THE GREATLY VALUED AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE ON JULIO HAS ENDED BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW JULIO MOVING NORTHWEST AND
WEAKENING. NO EYE IS APPARENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY FROM GOES-15 AND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FROM HONOLULU AND JTWC GAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 4.5...WHILE THE NESDIS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
BRANCH GAVE A C.I. OF 4.0. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WITH
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.

JULIO REMAINS IN SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE ALOFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. JULIO IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST
SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT TAKE THEIR TOLL ON JULIO.

AS JULIO TRACKS FARTHER NORTH IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. JULIO IS EXPECT TO
RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AFTER 72 HOURS. JULIO
WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS WARM CORE ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY FRIDAY NIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 25.9N 154.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.6N 155.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.5N 156.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.4N 157.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 29.5N 158.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 30.9N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.2N 158.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 36.5N 154.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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Re:

#225 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:09 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:I must say, this month has been amazingly active thus far in terms of tropical cyclones.

And also, this is my first storm I'm tracking north of Hawaii.


Ditto. Maybe not as exciting as Amanda and Iselle, but this is fairly interesting/unusual.
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#226 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:39 am

WTPA44 PHFO 111504
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST MON AUG 11 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW JULIO MOVING NORTHWEST AND
WEAKENING. NO EYE IS APPARENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY FROM GOES-15 AND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES FROM JTWC AND THE NESDIS SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH
GAVE A C.I. OF 4.0 WHILE HONOLULU ANALYZED A 4.5. A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE PASSES ON THE VERY USEFUL FNMOC AND NRL WEB SITES HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WITH
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT.

JULIO REMAINS IN SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE ALOFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. JULIO IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALOFT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING JULIO WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS SOUTHWEST SHEAR WEAKENS
AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

AS JULIO TRACKS FARTHER NORTH IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY. JULIO IS EXPECT TO RECURVE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE AFTER 72 HOURS. SINCE THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION
LOCATION OF THIS TURN ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST EXACTLY...THE
FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. JULIO WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
WARM CORE ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 26.5N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.2N 155.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.1N 156.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 29.0N 157.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 29.9N 158.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 32.0N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 34.0N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#227 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:28 pm

EP, 10, 2014081118, , BEST, 0, 273N, 1555W, 65, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 125, 110, 75, 110, 1015, 190, 20, 80, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 180, 240,
EP, 10, 2014081118, , BEST, 0, 273N, 1555W, 65, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 25, 20, 60, 1015, 190, 20, 80, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 180, 240,
EP, 10, 2014081118, , BEST, 0, 273N, 1555W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1015, 190, 20, 80, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 180, 240,
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#228 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:58 pm

Still a hurricane. Amazing.

Hurricane JULIO Advisory Number 32
Issued at 1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2014
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 27.6N 155.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM NNE OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM NNE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 75 MPH...120 KM/H
Present movement: NW or 320 degrees AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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#229 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:03 pm

Reminds of a bit of Guillermo 09, except this is a hurricane at this latitude and Guillermo was a TS.
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#230 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:04 pm

If it keeps up on the track on the map on top of this page and beyond in the same general direction, we may get one of those recurves into the PacNW, even if only remnants.
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#231 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:06 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:If it keeps up on the track on the map on top of this page and beyond in the same general direction, we may get one of those recurves into the PacNW, even if only remnants.


This generation, it has been rare. It was more common 15+ years ago though.
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#232 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:16 pm

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2014

JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING THE CENTER OF JULIO
OVERNIGHT...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT AROUND 15Z INDICATED THAT JULIO
CONTINUED TO HAVE AN EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO OBSCURE THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY...EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE SSMIS FIX POSITION WAS USED TO HELP WITH THE 18Z FIX POSITION.
THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES HAS T
NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC AND 4.5 FROM CPHC. THUS
WE WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND USE 4.0 FOR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
WHICH KEEPS JULIO AS A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS JULIO
GAINS LATITUDE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND
THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 4 AS JULIO BEGINS TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLY WINDS.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 5 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JULIO. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE SST VALUES
ALONG ITS TRACK REMAIN THE SAME OR WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH ABOUT DAY
3. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 3 AS WESTERLY SHEAR
INCREASES AND SST VALUES ALONG ITS PROJECTED TRACK LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 155.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.3N 156.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 29.3N 157.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 30.3N 158.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 31.4N 158.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 33.5N 157.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 35.4N 155.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 37.6N 151.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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#233 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:29 pm

EP, 10, 2014081200, , BEST, 0, 274N, 1560W, 60, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 70, 100, 1015, 180, 20, 75, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 180, 240,
EP, 10, 2014081200, , BEST, 0, 274N, 1560W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 45, 20, 20, 45, 1015, 180, 20, 75, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 150, 180, 240,
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#234 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:17 pm

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2014

JULIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE OF JULIO WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES HAS T NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.0 FROM
SAB...3.5 FROM JTWC AND 4.0 FROM CPHC. THUS WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JTWC AND CPHC AND LOWER THE INTENSITY OF JULIO TO
A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS JULIO
GAINS LATITUDE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND
THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 4 AS JULIO BEGINS TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING DAYS 4 AND 5.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 20Z ONLY CAPTURED A PORTION OF THE WEST SIDE OF
JULIO BUT IT DID HELP IN DETERMINING THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII MAY
BE A BIT SMALLER IN THAT SECTOR OF THE STORM THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS WE HAVE DECREASED THE RADIUS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD
INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JULIO. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE SST VALUES ALONG ITS TRACK
REMAIN THE SAME OR WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 3 AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND
SST VALUES ALONG ITS PROJECTED TRACK LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. ONCE JULIO
GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE AROUND DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 27.6N 156.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 28.3N 157.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 29.2N 157.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 30.3N 158.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 31.4N 158.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 33.3N 156.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 35.0N 153.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 36.9N 150.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#235 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:58 am

Image

Image
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#236 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:01 am

:uarrow: What does that symbol mean? :P

Back to Julio, it's looking a little better now.
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#237 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:31 am

WTPA44 PHFO 120847
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2014

JULIO CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM AFTER LOSING ITS EYE FEATURE EARLIER TODAY. SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS THE LLCC LIKELY LIES BENEATH THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING SOUTH OF THIS
CONVECTION...COMBINED WITH A TIMELY 0616Z TRMM PASS...INCREASES FIX
POSITION CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOWER
UNTIL THE LLCC IS EXPOSED AGAIN. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES HAS CI NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.0...FROM
SAB AND JTWC...TO 4.0 FROM CPHC. ALL THREE AGENCIES IDENTIFY A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND...GIVEN THE LOSS OF AN
OBVIOUS EYE EARLIER TODAY...WE WILL KEEP 60 KT AS THE INITIAL JULIO
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

WHILE CONTINUING A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...JULIO APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A BIT RECENTLY AS IT PUNCHES
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK BETWEEN 155W AND 165W
THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALLOWING JULIO TO CONTINUE GAINING LATITUDE.
NON-STATISTICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 48
HOURS...GRADUALLY TURNING JULIO NORTH BY 36 HOURS...THEN NORTHEAST
BY 48 AND 72 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY STEERING TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SIMILAR SHIFT IN
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE FINAL TRACK REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF GFS
AFTER 48 HOURS.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS
AFTER THAT. LOWER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR BEGIN TO PLAY LARGER
ROLES AFTER 48 HOURS...CAUSING SHIPS TO WEAKEN JULIO TO A DEPRESSION
AT 72 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...GFDL AND GFS KEEP JULIO AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...JULIO MAY BE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS A MIDLATITUDE GALE. THE
FINAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS LAST BIT OF REASONING...WITH
JULIO GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH 120 HOURS AND BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 28.1N 156.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.8N 157.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 29.8N 158.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 30.9N 158.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 32.0N 158.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 34.0N 156.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 35.7N 153.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 37.6N 150.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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hurricanes1234
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#238 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:02 am

Hmm.... seems to have weakened. I personally think it looks more organized this morning, though. Has anyone else noticed this?
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jaguarjace
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#239 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:26 am

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Yellow Evan
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Re:

#240 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:39 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Hmm.... seems to have weakened. I personally think it looks more organized this morning, though. Has anyone else noticed this?


Looks about the same to me.
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