CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

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#241 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:40 am

WTPA44 PHFO 121440
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST TUE AUG 12 2014

SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT JULIO HAS BEGUN TRACKING A BIT MORE
NORTH VERSUS NORTHWEST SINCE 06Z...WITH MOTION NOW TOWARD 320
DEGREES VERSUS 315 DEGREES. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES HAS CI NUMBERS RANGING FROM 2.5 FROM SAB...TO
3.0 FROM JTWC...TO 3.5 FROM CPHC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT CI WAS 3.7. A
PERFECTLY PLACED 0830Z ASCAT PASS COMPLETELY CAPTURED JULIO/S
CIRCULATION...NOT ONLY ALLOWING US TO ADJUST THE INITIAL INTENSITY
DOWNWARD TO 55 KT...OR A CI OF 3.5...FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT
ALSO LETTING US PRESENT RESTRUCTURED WIND RADII. THE MAXIMUM WIND IN
THE PASS WAS 50 KT...BUT THIS WAS BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
ABOUT 30 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE
NORTH THROUGH WEST OF THE LLCC...WITH THE DREGS WRAPPING AROUND THE
DRIER SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE LLCC REMAINS BENEATH CLOUD
COVER...ANIMATION DEFINES IT WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE.

JULIO CONTINUES TO PUNCH INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK
BETWEEN 155W AND 165W THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALLOWING JULIO TO CONTINUE
GAINING LATITUDE. NON-STATISTICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY
PACKED THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT THEN SPREADS WILDLY AFTERWARDS AS
BAMS...BAMM AND BAMD DEVIATE TO THE LEFT. IN CONTRAST...CONSENSUS
AND GFS GRADUALLY TURN JULIO NORTH BY 36 AND 48 HOURS...THEN
NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY STEERING TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE. ONCE
AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SIMILAR SHIFT IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE FINAL TRACK REMAINS TO THE
RIGHT OF GFS AFTER 48 HOURS.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS
AFTER THAT. LOWER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR BEGIN TO PLAY LARGER
ROLES AFTER 36 HOURS...CAUSING SHIPS TO WEAKEN JULIO TO A DEPRESSION
AT 48 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...GFS AND GFDL KEEP JULIO AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH THROUGH 72 AND 96 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. BY THAT TIME...JULIO
MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS A
MIDLATITUDE LOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS LAST BIT OF
REASONING...WITH JULIO GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH 120 HOURS AND
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.6N 157.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 29.2N 157.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 30.3N 158.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 31.5N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 32.7N 158.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 34.6N 156.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 36.6N 154.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 38.6N 151.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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#242 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:01 pm

EP, 10, 2014081218, , BEST, 0, 286N, 1573W, 55, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 80, 80, 1015, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081218, , BEST, 0, 286N, 1573W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1015, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#243 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:06 pm

Looks better now. I would not be surprised to see the intensity increased to 60 knts.
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#244 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:07 pm

Wait, no one posted the disco.

WTPA44 PHFO 122057
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 12 2014

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JULIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
QUADRANTS. MICROWAVE PASSES FROM NUMEROUS PLATFORMS BETWEEN 1200
AND 1900 UTC SHOW A PARTIAL EYE WALL PERSISTING AROUND THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE...WITH A 1859 UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS SHOWING THIS
STRUCTURE WRAPPING TO THE SW QUADRANT. IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 0712 UTC SUPPORTED A 55 KT INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. CI ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND HFO ARE DOWN TO 3.0...AND JTWC REMAINS AT 3.5...WHILE
CIMSS WAS AT 2.8. THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST A LOWER
INTENSITY...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CHANGE IN SHORT TERM SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AND THE STRUCTURE PRESENTED BY MICROWAVE DATA...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. THE MICROWAVE DATA WERE ALSO
CRUCIAL IN SHOWING A SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 5 KT ON A
HEADING OF 315 DEGREES.

WHILE JULIO REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STEADY STATE IN THE SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. JULIO RESIDES WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING FEATURE APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING OUTFLOW
ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND PROVIDING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATE IS ABOUT
15 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN THE
SAME OR SLIGHTLY LESS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND WITH SST VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 27C...ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
JULIO IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIO TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS.

JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS BEGUN TO SLOW AS THE RIDGE
IS BEING WEAKENED BY THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SHOWING
CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOTION FOLLOWED BY AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE GUIDANCE
SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY DUE TO THE HANDLING OF JULIO/S INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING BY. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST PAST 72 HOURS UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT JULIO WILL BE WEAKENED INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96
HOURS AND WILL BE STEERED MAINLY BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 28.8N 157.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 29.6N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30.6N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 31.2N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 31.9N 157.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 33.6N 157.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 35.1N 155.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#245 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:34 pm

EP, 10, 2014081300, , BEST, 0, 291N, 1579W, 60, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 80, 100, 1015, 190, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081300, , BEST, 0, 291N, 1579W, 60, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 20, 20, 40, 1015, 190, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#246 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:34 pm

This is a hurricane

Image
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#247 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:56 pm

HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST TUE AUG 12 2014

...JULIO RESTRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FAR NORTH OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 158.0W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM N OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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#248 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:18 pm

Wow, it reintensified to a hurricane! Amazing! And just look at its rare location! Really a shocking storm which fails to give up!
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#249 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:19 pm

WTPA44 PHFO 130249
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST TUE AUG 12 2014

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JULIO HAS STEADILY IMPROVED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED ALMOST COMPLETELY
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES BASED ON THE
12/2330 UTC IMAGERY FROM PHFO AND JTWC ARE 3.5...WHILE THE FINAL T
VALUES ROSE TO 3.5 AS WELL. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT NOW
APPEARS TO BE A COMPLETE EYE WALL HAS OCCURRED SINCE THESE FIX
TIMES...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE RAISES JULIO BACK
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 65 KT.

JULIO WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. JULIO SITS IN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF JULIO AND HAS REMAINED STEADY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SUGGESTS A RELAXING OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND HAS ALLOWED JULIO TO RESTRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
TONIGHT...AND SST VALUES ARE NEAR 27C ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT-LIVED STRENGTHENING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
JULIO IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...PRODUCING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN JULIO. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED BY DAY 4...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM.

JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...325/6 KT...INTO THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND 36
HOURS...THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE INTERACTION OF JULIO WITH THE TROUGH...
MAKING THE TRACK FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS TVCN THROUGH DAY 3. A TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST IS
LIKELY ON DAY 4 AS THE FORECAST REMNANT LOW OF JULIO IS STEERED BY A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 29.4N 158.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 30.1N 158.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 30.9N 158.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 31.5N 158.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 32.2N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 33.8N 156.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 35.5N 155.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#250 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:00 am

Worth pointing out that while this is rare, it is not the only system to do what this is doing.

Image

Virgina 68

Image

Fausto 02


Image

Wene 00

Image

The best for last. the 1975 Gulf of Alaska hurricane.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Wed Aug 13, 2014 8:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#251 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:48 am


HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 12 2014

THE IMPRESSIVE EYE OF HURRICANE JULIO CONTINUES TO BE EASILY
RECOGNIZABLE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO APPEARS TO REMAIN INTACT...BUT IT IS NOT QUITE
AS WELL-DEFINED AS IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF
ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 4 TO 7 KT FROM THE SHIPS AND
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SSTS APPEAR TO BE ABOUT 27C IN THE VICINITY
OF THE HURRICANE...WITH MARGINAL VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...OR
OHC...IN THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIRA ANALYSIS OF THIS
PARAMETER. ALL OF THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...PHFO...SAB AND
JTWC... ARE ESTIMATING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS 4.0. BASED ON
THIS...THE INTENSITY OF JULIO WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 65 KT
HURRICANE AS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIO IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES
AT 6 KT. THE SHORT-TERM STEERING OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED
BY A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHWEST OF JULIO...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INDIVIDUAL DYNAMIC HURRICANE
MODELS AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ON JULIO. BEYOND THE 36 TO
48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE INCREASES GREATLY
DUE TO THE WAY THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF JULIO
WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...MAKING THE TRACK FORECAST HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH A
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 3 AND 4.

THE RELATIVELY LOW ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL
MARGINAL VALUES OF SST AND OHC...IN THE VICINITY OF JULIO APPEAR TO
SUPPORT MAINTAINING JULIO AS A HURRICANE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SSTS / OHC EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO DROP ALONG THE NORTHWARD TRACK...JULIO IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
JULIO INCREASES...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF JULIO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR JULIO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGES INDICATED IN THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...OR ICON. NOTE THIS CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT JULIO MAY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT JULIO MAY SURVIVE TO REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR EVEN
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...SO ALL
MARINE INTERESTS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES...SINCE THERE MAY BE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE LONGER TERM TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 30.0N 158.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 30.8N 158.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 31.5N 158.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 32.1N 157.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 32.6N 157.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 33.9N 155.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 35.5N 155.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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#252 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 8:08 am

EP, 10, 2014081312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 1590W, 65, 989, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 80, 100, 1015, 210, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 1590W, 65, 989, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 35, 25, 35, 1015, 210, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 1590W, 65, 989, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 0, 20, 1015, 210, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#253 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:51 am

At 500 am HST, 1500 UTC, the center of hurricane Julio was located near latitude 30.3 north, longitude 159.2 west. Julio is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph, 13 km/h. This system is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward this morning, followed by a turn toward the north later today or tonight. Julio is then forecast to move northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, 120 km/h, with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast, and Julio may become a strong tropical storm later today or tonight. Additional slow weakening is expected Thursday and Thursday night.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles, 45 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles, 205 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb, 29.21 inches.
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#254 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:08 am

WTPA44 PHFO 131455
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST WED AUG 13 2014

THE FORMERLY DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE JULIO IS BECOMING OBSCURED BY
HIGH CLOUDS ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG ITS TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN NOW APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN NORTH
NORTHWEST OF JULIO. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR RANGE FROM 8 TO 13 KT BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS
ANALYSES. THE SSTS APPEAR TO BE ABOUT 27C IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HURRICANE...WITH MARGINAL VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...OR OHC...
IN THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT CIRA ANALYSIS OF THIS
PARAMETER. ALL OF THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...PHFO...SAB AND
JTWC...ARE ESTIMATING THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO BE 4.0. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 4.6. BASED ON THE GUIDANCE FROM
ALL OF THESE SOURCES...JULIO WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE
FOR THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THIS ADVISORY.

JULIO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE
SHORT-TERM STEERING OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS DISRUPTED BY A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIGGING IN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF
JULIO...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE FORWARD
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INDIVIDUAL DYNAMIC HURRICANE MODELS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE REMAIN RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS. THIS GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...
FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR
TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ON
JULIO. BEYOND THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE SPREAD OF THE
GUIDANCE INCREASES GREATLY DUE TO THE WAY THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS
HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF JULIO WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...MAKING
THE TRACK FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK HAS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36
HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT AT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION
STARTING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. JULIO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH AGAIN STARTING IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
MARGINAL VALUES OF SST AND OHC...IN THE VICINITY OF JULIO APPEAR TO
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A HURRICANE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
SSTS / OHC EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO DROP ALONG THE NORTHWARD TRACK...
JULIO WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF JULIO GROWS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
JULIO. IF SO...THIS SHOULD COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOR JULIO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CHANGES INDICATED IN
THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE...OR ICON. NOTE THAT THIS CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT JULIO MAY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY DAY 4. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT JULIO MAY SURVIVE TO REMAIN A
WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR EVEN TRANSITION TO A POST-TROP /
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AROUND DAY 4. THEREFORE...ALL MARINE INTERESTS
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE ADVISORIES...SINCE THERE MAY BE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONGER
TERM TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS IN UPCOMING ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 30.3N 159.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 31.0N 159.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 31.8N 158.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 32.4N 157.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 33.2N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 34.5N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 36.5N 156.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#255 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:42 am

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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#256 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:34 pm

What was the last EPAC/CPAC hurricane north of 30N latitude?
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#257 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What was the last EPAC/CPAC hurricane north of 30N latitude?


Iniki

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#258 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:42 pm

It's strange, since forget 30N, hurricanes in the Atlantic aren't uncommon north of 40N...even close to 50N sometimes.
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Re:

#259 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's strange, since forget 30N, hurricanes in the Atlantic aren't uncommon north of 40N...even close to 50N sometimes.


How high up were Vince, Epsilon, and Chris?
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Re:

#260 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's strange, since forget 30N, hurricanes in the Atlantic aren't uncommon north of 40N...even close to 50N sometimes.


Image

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SST
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