CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

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Re: Re:

#261 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:20 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's strange, since forget 30N, hurricanes in the Atlantic aren't uncommon north of 40N...even close to 50N sometimes.


How high up were Vince, Epsilon, and Chris?


Vince was about 37N, Epsilon about 33N (in December) and Chris about 42N.

That map sure shows a warm Pacific, maybe something could spin off the west coast...
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#262 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:58 pm

I was thinking if Julio kept going NE/E it could've reached the west coast after going extra tropical.

Really crazy EPAC.
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#263 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:09 pm

EP, 10, 2014081318, , BEST, 0, 306N, 1592W, 70, 984, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 120, 1014, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081318, , BEST, 0, 306N, 1592W, 70, 984, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 1014, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081318, , BEST, 0, 306N, 1592W, 70, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 10, 30, 1014, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,

Holy crap.
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#264 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:17 pm

I surely do not remember seeing a hurricane in the central Pacific so far north, like mentioned the warm PDO is supporting Hurricane Julio so far north.
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#265 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:21 pm

It'll be so weird if it goes back down, south. Better yet, reach the WPAC. Classic fish. It's exploring the Pacific.

Explorer Julio.

Almost claimed 3 lives a few days ago. There was a boat sailing from California to Hawaii that got stuck near the eyewall and started taking up a lot of water. Thankfully Recon saw them and notified the coast guard who notified a large Matson ship that saved them.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/resc ... o-24923602
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#266 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:37 pm

TXPN24 KNES 131744
TCSCNP

A. 10E (JULIO)

B. 13/1730Z

C. 30.5N

D. 159.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS SOLIDIFIED AROUND THE ENTIRE EYE AS SEEN
BY OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN VIS. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED .5 DEGREES IN DG (MG
JUST MISSES) FOR EYE NO. OF 4.5. SURROUNDING MG RING ADDS ZERO FOR EYE
ADJ. MAKING THE DT A 4.5 (WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW HOURS NOW)
BUILDING CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING 1.0 OVER 6HRS. MET IS RAPID TREND FOR
4.5. PT IS 4.5. FT IS 4.5 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/1344Z 30.1N 159.0W SSMI


...GALLINA
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Well-organized
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#267 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:38 pm

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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#268 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:39 pm

NDG wrote:I surely do not remember seeing a hurricane in the central Pacific so far north, like mentioned the warm PDO is supporting Hurricane Julio so far north.


Six EPAC hurricanes have made it this far north.

1975 Pacific Northwest hurricane, Iniki, Nele 85, Dot 70, and John 94 in addition to Julio.
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#269 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:40 pm

Is it me or does this look like Chris 12 did except larger?
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Re:

#270 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:It'll be so weird if it goes back down, south. Better yet, reach the WPAC. Classic fish. It's exploring the Pacific.

Explorer Julio.


It's forecast to turn NE and affect the WCONUS.
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#271 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:03 pm

That's more like a T5.0 to me...I'd go 80-85 kt for the intensity.
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Re:

#272 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That's more like a T5.0 to me...I'd go 80-85 kt for the intensity.


I'd go with 75-80 knts.
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#273 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:04 pm

WTPA44 PHFO 132043
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST WED AUG 13 2014

JULIO HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SOME STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING AS IT
BEGINS TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. CONVECTION HAD
TRENDED DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED AND
WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE AGAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE
1730 UTC DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 4.0 FROM HFO
AND JTWC...THOUGH HFO WAS CONSTRAINED...AND SAB REPORTED A 4.5.
CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY WAS AT 5.0...AND CIMSS SATCON AT 1543
UTC ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 71 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME SLIGHT DETERIORATION IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING
THE PAST HOUR...THE OFFICIAL CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 70
KT.

THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AS STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY. JULIO IS CURRENTLY FLANKED BY
A PAIR OF DEEP RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST...WHILE A BROAD AND DEEP
TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTFLOW IS ALREADY
BECOMING RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND AS THE TROUGH
DROPS CLOSER TODAY...NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY NIGHTFALL. AS A RESULT...
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME RANGE. BEYOND
24 HOURS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RELAX AS THE TROUGH PASSES
BY TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INTERACTION WITH TWO
MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE REGARDING THE WEAKENING IN
THE SHORT TERM AND IS THEN ESSENTIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE NORTHERLY 330/6KT. THIS TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A PAIR OF DEEP RIDGES SIT NEARLY DUE
WEST AND EAST OF JULIO. AS JULIO INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH...A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR BY TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3 AS JULIO IS INFLUENCED BY A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPREAD AS THE
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HANDLE THE INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING TROUGHS
DIFFERENTLY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 30.8N 159.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 31.4N 159.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 32.1N 158.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 32.8N 157.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 33.6N 156.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 35.1N 157.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 37.7N 157.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Hurricane

#274 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Aug 13, 2014 8:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:What was the last EPAC/CPAC hurricane north of 30N latitude?


Iniki

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Actually, it was John in 1994.

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#275 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:27 pm

EP, 10, 2014081400, , BEST, 0, 308N, 1592W, 65, 986, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 90, 70, 60, 1014, 190, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081400, , BEST, 0, 308N, 1592W, 65, 986, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 35, 25, 25, 1014, 190, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
EP, 10, 2014081400, , BEST, 0, 308N, 1592W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 0, 0, 1014, 190, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D,
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#276 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:48 pm

Hurricane JULIO Advisory Number 41
Issued at 500 PM HST WED AUG 13 2014
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 30.9N 159.1W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 75 MPH...120 KM/H
Present movement: NNE or 20 degrees AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 986 MB...29.12 INCHES
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#277 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:50 pm

WTPA44 PHFO 140235
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST WED AUG 13 2014

JULIO HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
IMPINGED ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 4.0
FROM HFO AND JTWC...4.5 FROM SAB...AND 5.0 FROM CIMSS ADT. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS DETERIORATING QUICKLY...AND AN EYE IS NO
LONGER DISCERNIBLE. DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
TYPICALLY OCCURS FASTER THAN THE DECREASE IN WIND FIELD...AND WITH
THIS IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT.

STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TAKES ITS TOLL.
A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING JUST NORTH OF JULIO IS IMPARTING
THE WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY CIMSS TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 20 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT BY NIGHTFALL.
AS A RESULT...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. SHEAR
MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY BEYOND 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY DECREASING THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS ICON THROUGH 48 HOURS.

THE DEEP TROUGH PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH HAS SLOWED THE FORWARD
SPEED AND CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 020/03KT...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS JULIO BECOMES STEERED BY A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE EAST. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND
GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPREAD AS THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HANDLE THE
INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING TROUGHS DIFFERENTLY. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 30.9N 159.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 31.3N 158.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 31.8N 158.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.6N 157.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 33.5N 157.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 35.3N 158.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 38.7N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#278 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2014 5:23 am

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST WED AUG 13 2014

JULIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITHIN INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR. SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES PROVIDED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 4.0...FROM CPHC AND JTWC...TO 4.5 FROM SAB. THE
UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 4.4. ALL OF THESE ESTIMATES SEEM HIGH GIVEN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWING NO EYE AND SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST. A PERFECTLY PLACED 0010Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A PAIR OF 50 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC...SUPPORTING THE OVERALL PRESENTATION OF JULIO
AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET
AT 60 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FORWARD MOTION FOR THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL...WITH
ANIMATION SHOWING MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 DEGREES...AT
3 KT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EXCEPT FOR BAMD...REPRESENTING THE
LEFT OUTLIER WHICH INSISTS JULIO WILL TURN WESTWARD...TRACK GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY TIGHTLY PACKED CARRYING THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 120 HOURS. MOST OF THIS GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS
A BRIEF SWING NORTHWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS IN
DEEP NORTHEASTERLY STEERING PRESENTS ITSELF. TVCN APPEARS TO HAVE
SERVED US WELL LATELY...WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN CHANGE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND REASONABLY ACCURATE VERIFICATION FOR THIS SLOW-MOVING
AND RECURVING SYSTEM. THE LITTLE-CHANGED FORECAST TRACK THEREFORE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS CONSENSUS ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...KEEPING THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF HWRF THROUGH 120 HOURS
AND JUST LEFT OF GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SMOOTHER THAN GFS...WHICH DESCRIBES A SHARP NORTHWEST TURN BETWEEN
36 AND 72 HOURS.

SHEAR ACROSS JULIO WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 KT THROUGH 24
HOURS...AND NEAR 30 KT FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...CAUSING SHIPS TO
DISSIPATE THIS SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS. HWRF...ECMWF AND GFS ARE A
BIT KINDER...GENERALLY WEAKENING JULIO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BEYOND 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE FOLLOWS THIS LATTER REASONING...WITH JULIO BECOMING
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 48 HOURS...THEN BECOMING
POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL AT 96 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 31.0N 159.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 31.4N 158.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 32.1N 158.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 32.9N 157.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 33.8N 157.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 36.0N 158.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 39.4N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#279 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:14 am

I'd estimate that the winds in Julio are somewhat below 60 kts. Had an ASCAT pass a little before the 09Z advisory that indicated 40 kts. However, the lack of convection and huge separation between the center an any showers would indicate sub-60kt winds and probably sub-40kt winds. Remnant low today vs. 96 hrs.

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Re: CPAC: JULIO - Tropical Storm

#280 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:28 am

Well that was a great run for Julio...Interesting classic fishie... :lol:
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