EPAC: INVEST 98E

[jaguarjace]

98E INVEST 140805 0000 10.3N 96.9W EPAC 25 1007


98E Floater

A small low pressure system is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased and become more concentrated near the center
of circulation during the past several hours, and upper-level winds
are expected to gradually improve over the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

A small low pressure system is located several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. While shower and thunderstorm activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development over the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Doesn't have much model support.

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 56 69 77 81 84 85 86 85
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 56 69 77 81 84 85 86 85
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 36 41 53 68 84 98 106 109 108 106
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 N/A N/A 3 6 11 10 11 11 9 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 N/A N/A -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -7 -6
SHEAR DIR 29 29 22 N/A N/A 87 120 78 85 82 106 107 143
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3

[Yellow Evan]

A small low pressure system is located several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. While shower and thunderstorm activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
upper-level winds could become more conducive for development over
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that the small area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Shower
activity remains disorganized and development, if any, is expected
to be slow while the system moves west or west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

How can it degenerate into a low if it already is a low?

[RL3AO]

It degenerated from a closed low to an open trough.

[Yellow Evan]

A surface trough located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development of this disturbance, if any, is expected
to be slow while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity has increased a little in association with a trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

It would probably have a more decent shot at development further west in longitude where Iselle and Julio formed.

[Yellow Evan]

1. Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
become less organized since yesterday. Development of this system,
if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-
northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system is expected to be
slow to occur while it moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This area is unlikely to develop--shear is increasing, and both dry air and sea surface temperatures will become unfavorable after 48-60 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds
are likely to prevent any significant development of this system
while it moves northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has diminished this morning. Development of
this system is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.