ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Completely busted down due to dry air. I can't even find a center. 2014 might be worse than I thought. Something will fire up pretty soon because we already had Arthur.

[TheStormExpert]

What a waste of an Invest this was.

[Ntxw]

Completely busted down due to dry air. I can't even find a center. 2014 might be worse than I thought. Something will fire up pretty soon because we already had Arthur.

It was only a bust if you had unrealistic expectations of 94L. It was never going to be in a proper environment for development, chances were always low, and none of the reliable models within a good frame really developed. It was an interest mostly. Currently there is a suppressed phase of kelvin wave (sinking air) fighting 94L. Eventually there is an active Kelvin wave moving over the EPAC that may make it to the Atlantic next week which may be better in terms of development.

[Frank2]

Toast - ironically here in South Florida we are getting another trough setting up in the next day or two, and that will increase my local area's total which is already over 60 inches for the year (!), and with each afternoon's round of convection we routinely receive an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain per day, so you can imagine...

My roof is still leaking...

Frank

[alienstorm]

While 94L may be losing the battle - the next two may win the war... The one that has come off Africa looks very healthy but we will need to see how it does as it battles SAL...

[SeGaBob]

Might be time for Bones wxman57...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[floridasun78]

navy site drop invest http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[chaser1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have to disagree with the NHC on this one. SHIPS has shear decreasing and heat content rising by the 72 hour mark.

IMO
48 Hours-0%
120 Hours-40%

you should be aware by now that there is far more regarding development than low shear and warm SST

All the more reason to anticipate the possibility of varying subtle conditions that might lend themselves towards cyclonic genesis, especially in light of the fact that we are nearing the middle of August. While I am also skeptical that 94L will redevelop, "pardon my bandwidth" as I occasionally glance over my shoulder during the upcoming 2-3 days... just to see if anything appears to be brewing in the tropics.

[gatorcane]

Convection has increased ever so slightly today near the LLC and one thing I noticed is that ex-94L seems to have started sucking up the moisture/convection to the south from the ITCZ. Will be interested to see if it is enough to spark some more showers and storms near the center maybe as we approach DMAX later...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Convection has increased ever so slightly today near the LLC and one thing I noticed is that ex-94L seems to have started sucking up the moisture/convection to the south from the ITCZ. Will be interested to see if it is enough to spark some more showers and storms near the center...

Yeah, noticing that on SAT. I can't see a discernable LLC though.

[floridasun78]

Convection has increased ever so slightly today near the LLC and one thing I noticed is that ex-94L seems to have started sucking up the moisture/convection to the south from the ITCZ. Will be interested to see if it is enough to spark some more showers and storms near the center...

Yeah, noticing that on SAT. I can't see a discernable LLC though.

nhc kill invest i see you have 40 in 48 hour that from old outlook???

[Sanibel]

There's some kind of center near 35.5W 13.5N. There's definitely convergence. It might form if it manages to re-convect.

[chaser1]

Yeah, up close I'd have a pretty hard time making much of a case for near term dynamic changes to the systems inner core. However noticing that someone else had observed moisture (at some level) being pulled cyclonically inward, I took a couple of looks at the satellite. There's no doubt that a very large and broad weak circulation appears to be evident at some level above the surface. Actually looks like the Alto-Cum layer to it's north is showing a bit more definition within their own striated cloud decks and those broad ribbons of low to mid level clouds appear to be slowly becoming part of that large and very weak wave axis (and possibly accompanied 700mb low associated with 94L. As far as I'm concerned, there's a wave there and there's clouds associated with the wave. Heck...., if nothing ultimately comes of it - i'll just blame it on the "Polar Vortex"

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't completely dismiss this one yet as its convecting some and seems to be drawing moisture from the ITCZ but I don't expect to see development until the Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products