EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:21 pm

99E INVEST 140810 1800 12.5N 95.0W EPAC 20 1009

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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:28 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 37 50 63 71 78 82 85 89 89
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 37 50 63 71 78 82 85 89 89
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 28 36 46 58 69 78 86 91 92
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 13 11 18 15 16 13 10 13 11 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 -2 0 -4 -1 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 65 68 78 76 80 59 55 48 53 70 64 83 61
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.1 27.3
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:37 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a couple of hundred
miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
tropical wave. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit
significant development of the wave during the next couple of days.
After that time, however, environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form
later this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:49 pm

Image

GFS shows a more northerly track, but still forms this into Karina.
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:35 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 36 49 60 67 71 72 72 71 69
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 36 49 60 67 71 72 72 71 69
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 28 35 45 54 62 68 71 71 67
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 10 11 14 16 14 11 15 11 8 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 -3
SHEAR DIR 73 60 65 70 52 46 35 33 28 16 34 352 342
SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.0 26.8 25.8

Track shifts a bit to the north.
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:41 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111149
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with a tropical
wave. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit significant
development of the wave during the next couple of days. After that
time, however, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:43 am

Image

Good agreement that this will become a strong TS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:40 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#9 Postby AFWeather » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:42 pm

Long track takes it... where? You guessed it... the Hawaiian islands! If we were to be foolish enough to put any stock in a model forecast 2 weeks out...

But in all seriousness, we may be looking at another long track EPAC storm. As long as the SSTs are good, this looks like a trend for the foreseeable future.
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Re:

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:50 pm

AFWeather wrote:Long track takes it... where? You guessed it... the Hawaiian islands! If we were to be foolish enough to put any stock in a model forecast 2 weeks out...

But in all seriousness, we may be looking at another long track EPAC storm. As long as the SSTs are good, this looks like a trend for the foreseeable future.



Spot on. GFS has TS crossing 140W in just more of a week.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2014 6:38 pm

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within a few days while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re:

#12 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:34 pm

AFWeather wrote:Long track takes it... where? You guessed it... the Hawaiian islands! If we were to be foolish enough to put any stock in a model forecast 2 weeks out...

But in all seriousness, we may be looking at another long track EPAC storm. As long as the SSTs are good, this looks like a trend for the foreseeable future.


The media is going to have a lot of trouble pronouncing this storm's name correctly. :roll:
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Re:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:38 pm

AFWeather wrote:Long track takes it... where? You guessed it... the Hawaiian islands! If we were to be foolish enough to put any stock in a model forecast 2 weeks out...

But in all seriousness, we may be looking at another long track EPAC storm. As long as the SSTs are good, this looks like a trend for the foreseeable future.


GFS yes brings it somewhat towards the Aloha state again. But this time around, there's more uncertainty than normal. CFS long range have been brring it near there for days now.

But I agree, we could see YET ANOTHER long tracker. This is the 80s and 90s all over again.
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Re: Re:

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:47 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
AFWeather wrote:Long track takes it... where? You guessed it... the Hawaiian islands! If we were to be foolish enough to put any stock in a model forecast 2 weeks out...

But in all seriousness, we may be looking at another long track EPAC storm. As long as the SSTs are good, this looks like a trend for the foreseeable future.


The media is going to have a lot of trouble pronouncing this storm's name correctly. :roll:


Watch them call it Katrina by mistake.
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#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:48 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 41 48 61 74 85 91 90 92 88 87
V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 41 48 61 74 85 91 90 92 88 87
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 50 62 73 81 83 81 79 75
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 17 13 11 13 12 9 12 11 6 11 10 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -4 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -8 -2
SHEAR DIR 61 54 55 43 34 48 64 46 75 74 41 50 13
SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.6
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 166 164 162 163 160 154 147 137 134 131 120
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 75 72 74 71 69 66 63 58 55 51
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 16 18 17 17
850 MB ENV VOR 25 17 5 9 18 29 35 52 54 43 43 21 16
200 MB DIV 41 44 28 41 49 24 40 39 29 14 21 -11 1
700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 -3 -4 0
LAND (KM) 399 423 429 459 502 626 744 843 998 1144 1335 1488 1661
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 101.8 103.2 104.5 105.8 107.1 109.7 112.1 114.8 117.6 120.3 123.1 125.8 128.5
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 60 67 75 68 47 29 40 28 8 14 8 1 0
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby CaliforniaResident » Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:04 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:
AFWeather wrote:Long track takes it... where? You guessed it... the Hawaiian islands! If we were to be foolish enough to put any stock in a model forecast 2 weeks out...

But in all seriousness, we may be looking at another long track EPAC storm. As long as the SSTs are good, this looks like a trend for the foreseeable future.


The media is going to have a lot of trouble pronouncing this storm's name correctly. :roll:


Watch them call it Katrina by mistake.


They should change the name to something else. It's just too close to Katrina that if it did make landfall somewhere (either Mexico or Hawaii or even Southern California as a TS as unlikely as that is) it would cause way too much confusion. If it's a fishie storm, no problem- keep the name. I suggest changing the name to Kaitlyn, after my niece, just in case its a high impact event.
Last edited by CaliforniaResident on Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:09 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:
They should change the name to something else. It's just too close to Katrina that if it did make landfall somewhere (either Mexico or Hawaii or even Southern California as a TS as unlikely as that is) it would cause way too much confusion. If it's a fishie storm, no problem- keep the name. I suggest changing the name to Kaitlyn, after my niece.


Agreed, though I doubt they'll change it on the fly.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:11 pm

Image

GFS has this a southern cruiser. It brings it very close to Hawaii later on, but does not show it getting piekd up by any troughs along they way.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:31 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Image

GFS has this a southern cruiser. It brings it very close to Hawaii later on, but does not show it getting piekd up by any troughs along they way.


You never know. Julio was never expected to be picked up that much by the models.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Image

GFS has this a southern cruiser. It brings it very close to Hawaii later on, but does not show it getting piekd up by any troughs along they way.


You never know. Julio was never expected to be picked up that much by the models.


Long-range GFS does show a trough due north of it when it nears Hawaii, but for some reason, does not show re-curvature.
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