EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

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#261 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:25 pm

EP, 11, 2014082300, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1350W, 70, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 60, 50, 1010, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082300, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1350W, 70, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1010, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082300, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1350W, 70, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 10, 10, 0, 1010, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
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#262 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:39 pm

Yet another crazy and interesting to track storm.
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Re:

#263 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:41 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Yet another crazy and interesting to track storm.


Agreed. Maybe not as epic as Julio, Genevieve, Iselle, Amanda, or Cristina, but interesting to watch indeed.
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Re: Re:

#264 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:44 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Yet another crazy and interesting to track storm.


Agreed. Maybe not as epic as Julio, Genevieve, Iselle, Amanda, or Cristina, but interesting to watch indeed.

Fully due to it's odd track and roller coaster intensity.
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Hurricane

#265 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:53 pm

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Karina has completed a loop and at 0000 UTC, it was centered at
nearly the same location as it was 3 days ago at the same time. Its
appearance on satellite has improved during the evening and a small
eye-like feature can be seen in visible imagery. A corresponding
warm spot in IR imagery has also been intermittently present. A
blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports
raising the initial intensity to 70 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT, CIRA
SATCON product, and a 2255 AMSU pass all support intensities of at
least 70 kt. The recent intensification trend is expected to be
short-lived since the cyclone is tracking toward cooler waters.
The GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment for the next 48
hours will otherwise be not particularly hostile, so only slow
weakening is forecast. After that, stronger shear and a drier
environment should speed up the weakening process, and Karina is
expected to become a remnant low by 96 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be 045/6. There is very little
change to the forecast for the first 48 hours, and Karina is still
expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast while
interacting with the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell.
After Lowell passes in about 3 days, Karina is expected to turn more
toward the north. There is considerably more uncertainty in the
forecast beyond 72 hours. Some models forecast that Karina will
turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds east of
Lowell. Others forecast that Karina, or its remnants, will move
close enough to the circulation of Marie to initiate a second
Fujiwhara-like interaction, resulting in a more southerly motion.
The official forecast still shows a westward track, but has been
slowed down and is now closer to splitting these two scenarios.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Hurricane

#266 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 2:14 am

The eye becomes more well defined on IR imagery

Image

Image
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#267 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 6:46 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230846
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Karina continues to show signs of an intermittent eye in shortwave
and longwave IR imagery. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS are unchanged since the last advisory, and several recent
AMSU passes have indicated an intensity of 70 to 75 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. No significant
change to the intensity forecast was made. Karina continues to
march steadily toward cooler SSTs and a subsequently more stable
thermodynamic environment. After 36 hours, the cyclone should
encounter an increasingly dry mid-level environment and higher
shear, resulting in an increased rate of weakening. Most of the
dynamical models forecast that the low- and mid-level centers will
become decoupled within 96 hours, but that the low-level center
will persist for a day or two after that.

The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt. There
remains a high degree of confidence for the first 48 hours of the
track forecast. A general east-northeastward track is still
expected while Karina interacts with the circulation of Lowell.
After Lowell passes to the north, there is a considerable amount of
uncertainty regarding the track of Karina and its remnants. Not
only is the model spread very large, but the run-to-run consistency
has been remarkably poor. For instance, the 00Z and 18Z GFS 120-h
forecast positions differ by over 700 nm. The members of TVCE
currently support three very distinct scenarios. The GFS shows
Karina wrapping around to the north side of Lowell and moving
rapidly westward. The HWRF and GFDL models show a slower westward
motion, caused by a mid-level ridge that is forecast to build to the
east of Lowell. Finally, the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Karina
will be advected southward by the circulation of Marie. The official
forecast has been shifted slightly northward, in part due to the
extreme shift of the GFS, but remains closest to the middle ground
solution of the HWRF and GFDL. If the models begin to converge on a
single solution, it may necessitate a larger change to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 16.7N 134.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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#268 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:19 am

EP, 11, 2014082312, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1344W, 70, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 60, 50, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082312, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1344W, 70, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082312, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1344W, 70, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 10, 10, 0, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Hurricane

#269 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:38 am

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning.
The eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past
few hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the
center. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend
of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values
from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm,
and total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning
to wrap around the circulation. These environmental conditions
combined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening
process to begin later today or tonight. The NHC intensity forecast
is largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to
the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Karina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad
southwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical
Storm Lowell. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later
today and that general motion should continue for the the next
couple of days. Beyond that time, however, the models have
differing solutions. The previous discussion outlined the varying
scenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as
it interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that
Karina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction
with Hurricane Marie. The models are trending toward the latter
scenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward
speed at days 3-5 to account for that information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.2N 134.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 17.6N 133.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 20.3N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.8N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Hurricane

#270 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:20 am

Karina is a small hurricane.

Code: Select all

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1436.shtml

Katrina over Florida was also a small hurricane.

Code: Select all

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES. EARLIER THIS EVENING A WIND GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECORDED
AT MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE/NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND 81 MPH AT THE TAMIAMI AIRPORT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pu ... .010.shtml?

We all know what happened when it entered the Gulf of Mexico. It underwent explosive intensification and became a very large and intense hurricane. :eek:
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#271 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:55 pm

Still 70 knts

EP, 11, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1338W, 70, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 60, 50, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1338W, 70, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1338W, 70, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 10, 10, 0, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
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#272 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 6:39 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 232047
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The eye of Karina has begun to fill during the past few hours, and
deep convection has decreased slightly on the north side of the
cyclone. A blend of the 1800 UTC Dvorak CI- and T-numbers still
yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt. Since that time,
the cloud pattern of the cyclone has begun to deteriorate,
suggesting that the predicted weakening trend may already be
occurring. The hurricane is currently crossing the 26 deg C
isotherm and dry air is wrapping around the circulation, as seen in
total precipitable water imagery. The influence of these
unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause steady weakening to
remnant low status in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is
again an update of the previous one and lies close to the
multi-model consensus.

Karina is turning toward the right in the broad southwesterly flow
to the south of Lowell, and the latest initial motion estimate is
055/6. The models are coming into better agreement in showing
Karina moving on a general east-northeasterly path with a decrease
in forward speed before being absorbed into the much larger
circulation of Hurricane Marie in 4 to 5 days. However, there is
still some guidance that shows Karina interacting with Lowell,
which would result in a west-northwestward motion. Since most of
the track guidance now favors the absorption of Karina by Marie, the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and shows the cyclone
becoming stationary at days 3 and 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 17.7N 132.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 18.3N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#273 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:13 pm

Karina is like the EPAC equivalent of 2012's Nadine.
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Re:

#274 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:25 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Karina is like the EPAC equivalent of 2012's Nadine.


Interesting analogy. When this all done, it's track is gonna be epic.
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#275 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:40 pm

Held at 70 knts but pressure down 3 mbar

EP, 11, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1332W, 70, 985, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 60, 50, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1332W, 70, 985, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 20, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1332W, 70, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 10, 10, 0, 1008, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
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#276 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:04 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 240249
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The appearance of Karina in visible and infrared satellite imagery
has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. The
hurricane no longer has an eye, and increasing shear is beginning to
restrict the upper-level outflow in the northeast quadrant of the
circulation. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and a
decrease in satellite intensity estimates, the intensity has been
lowered to 65 kt. No significant changes were made to the intensity
forecast. Steady weakening is still expected for the next few days,
particularly in light of the fact that Karina recently passed over
the 25 deg SST isotherm. The dynamical models are in good agreement
that only a low-level circulation will remain in about 72 hours.

Karina continues to move toward the northeast at about 7 kt, and
this general motion should continue for the next day or two while
the cyclone remains embedded within a large area of southwesterly
flow to the south of Lowell. After 48 hours, the spread in the
track guidance remains large. Most of the dynamical models have
converged this cycle on the general solution that Karina will move
close enough to the circulation of Marie to be advected southward
before being absorbed or sheared. However, the extent and timing of
this interaction remains highly uncertain. Since the track
guidance has been exceptionally inconsistent from run to run over
the last several forecast cycles, the official forecast has been
conservatively nudged only slightly toward the southeast at days 3
and 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 17.8N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 18.2N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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Re: EPAC: KARINA - Tropical Storm

#277 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 5:09 am

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Karina has the classic appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone,
with a strong IR brightness temperature gradient on the east side
of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease and the initial intensity has
subsequently been lowered to 60 kt. Karina is turning toward the
east and the initial motion is estimated to be 65/6, though the
motion is a little more uncertain for this forecast since the
low-level center has become obscured. A general eastward motion is
still expected for the next 36 to 48 hours hours. After that, the
dynamical models have finally come into complete agreement that
Karina will turn more toward the south once it begins to interact
with, and circumnavigate, the large circulation of Hurricane Marie.
Shortly after this interaction begins, Karina will be assimilated or
completely strained out by the larger vortex. The official forecast
has been shifted south, but still shows fairly slow movement at days
3 and 4 since the model spread remains large.

Given the decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear that
dominate the environment around Karina, continued weakening appears
to be inevitable. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that
Karina will become a remnant low within the next 72 hours. No major
changes were made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the
intensity consensus, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 17.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.0N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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#278 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:12 am

EP, 11, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1318W, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 60, 50, 1007, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,
EP, 11, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1318W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 20, 20, 0, 1007, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, M,
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#279 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:54 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 241447
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Karina's deep convection has expanded some this morning, and the
strong temperature gradient in the infrared imagery on the east side
of the cyclone has weakened. Both would be indicative of the large
vertical shear diminishing some, consistent with the CIMSS analysis
of 5-10 kt shear. The GFS-based SHIPS shear, on the other hand, is
diagnosed as being about 20 kt. The intensity estimates widely
range from 45-75 kt, depending on whether a shear or embedded center
pattern is used in the Dvorak technique. The initial intensity is
lowered slightly to 55 kt, but this estimate has more than the usual
uncertainty. Even if the shear has subsided some currently, this
should pick up more shortly as the outflow from major hurricane
Marie affects Karina. The combination of strong vertical shear,
marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to at least a
gradual - if not quick - weakening of the tropical cyclone. The
intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and
HWRF models and is quite similar to that from the previous advisory.

An ASCAT pass from late last night indicated tropical-storm-force
winds extending out about 60 nm on the eastern semi-circle. The
initial size is assessed the same as that previously, and a gradual
reduction in tropical-storm-force wind radii is anticipated as the
cyclone weakens.

Karina is being steered east-northeastward at 8 kt around the large
circulation of post-tropical Lowell to its north-northeast. The
absence of microwave imagery over Karina and the lack of visible
imagery before sunrise makes the current position and motion
somewhat unclear. The steering influence of Lowell will diminish in
about a day as the distance between the systems increases, and
Karina should respond by slowing down and turning gradually to the
east-southeast. In about two days, Karina's track will mainly be
influenced by the approaching very large and strong Marie. Karina
should be accelerated along toward the east until it becomes
absorbed within Marie in about three to four days. The forecast
track is based upon a blend of the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models
and is slightly faster than that issued in the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 18.0N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 18.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.8N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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#280 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 24, 2014 1:10 pm

So, uh... is there even a remote possibility that Karina ends up sliding around Marie's southern periphery without being absorbed? It feels like this little system will never go away. :lol:
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

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