CPAC: INVEST 94C

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it appears to be slowly organizing. Banding is decent. Needs to sprout some convection. 50% would be a better estimate right now.

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of low pressure located about 1050 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support development in this area during the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it me or does it seem like this disturbance is painfully hanging on?

[Yellow Evan]

Is it me or does it seem like this disturbance is painfully hanging on?

It is. Conditions aren't bad, so this thing still has an outside shot.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP942014 08/16/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 41 45 50 53 58 57
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 41 45 50 53 58 57
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 29 30 32 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 10 9 9 11 6 8 7 9 7 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 0 3 2 2
SHEAR DIR 75 88 90 100 96 82 96 71 92 86 84 52 105
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2

[Equilibrium]

Thinking maybe there is two storms there. That cloud on the left of the satellite picture looks like a weird face when you blow the pic up lol.

[Equilibrium]

wheres it go

[Yellow Evan]

Models likely all over the place due to a possible interaction with Karina and/or the lemon.

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of low pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support development in this area during the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS develops it now. Doesn't move it as fast as the Euro did.

[Equilibrium]

Got some deep convention around the LLCC. And now looks to be expanding on this pic.


think its a little better organized than it looks on satellite


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

Doing well in DMIN.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks almost classifiable now IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of low pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support development in this area during the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of disturbed weather about 1000 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, is nearly stationary. Continuous scattered thunderstorms in this area currently remain disorganized. However, environmental conditions may support development of a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP942014 08/16/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 42 48 49 51 51 52
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 42 48 49 51 51 52
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 32 35 38 42 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 7 6 6 4 7 5 9 11 12 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 5 3 3 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 94 108 93 102 108 109 72 109 78 84 55 78 95
SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4

[hurricanes1234]

Where did the convection go? I'm only seeing some weak clouds.

[Yellow Evan]

Where did the convection go? I'm only seeing some weak clouds.

Looks like it went away. This could bust. Models are much less aggressive now.

[Equilibrium]

94C INVEST 140816 1800 12.8N 141.7W CPAC 25 1008


still looks to have a a good moisture package to work in thinking this still in with a good chance at reaching at least TS status.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,10.77,580

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

Structure wise it's there.

Needs to maintain convection.