EPAC: LOWELL - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: LOWELL - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:05 am

EP, 91, 2014081512, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1115W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014081518, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1118W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014081600, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1121W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014081606, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1125W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014081612, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1128W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:06 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 08/16/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 37 38 39 37 36 36 36
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 37 38 39 37 36 36 36
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 25 25 23 23 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 3 3 4 6 2 7 13 11 14 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -6 -4
SHEAR DIR 56 29 68 55 40 66 54 87 221 225 243 217 215
SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.1 26.1 25.7 25.0 24.1 24.1 24.4 25.1
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 16, 2014 12:49 pm

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Shower activity has increased since yesterday and
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development during the next several days while the low moves
generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
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#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 1:21 pm

Image

UKMET aggressive with this. Like the CMC, is in the cap of a northerly track.
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 3:02 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 08/16/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 38 43 45 46 45 44 42 39
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 32 38 43 45 46 45 44 42 39
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 30 29 29 29 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 4 1 3 3 3 1 3 4 8 12 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4
SHEAR DIR 72 77 80 279 306 199 141 2 13 257 280 268 287
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.0 26.8 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.5 23.9
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 6:34 pm

A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:00 pm

Meanwhile, SHIPS isn't developing much, according to the forecast above.
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#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:25 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Meanwhile, SHIPS isn't developing much, according to the forecast above.


Models are keen on a TS, but nothing more. Likely to threaten CA per GFS.
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#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:07 pm

Forecast seems to have shifted south

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 08/17/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 54 58 59 57 55 52
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 49 54 58 59 57 55 52
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 31 32 33 34 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 1 3 6 8 11 9 7 7 8 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -3 -6 -6 -1 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 65 98 175 200 128 50 26 36 66 98 145 164 178
SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.7 25.2
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:48 pm

Image

0z GFS has shifted south. Calls for mid-level TS.
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#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 17, 2014 12:46 am

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week
while the low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:30 am

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located almost 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and has become a
little better organized this morning, and environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or so while the low moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:05 am

EP, 91, 2014081712, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1149W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 08/17/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 66 73 73 72 70 66 61
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 66 73 73 72 70 66 61
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 41 44 46 47 47 47 46 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 9 12 11 11 3 2 8 5 7 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -2 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 47 73 53 61 31 87 58 85 80 141 140 165 199
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.0 22.9
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#14 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:38 am

Higher values on this forecast, now bringing it to hurricane strength.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#15 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:46 am

Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#16 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:47 am

CaliforniaResident wrote:Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?


That was never in any forecast.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:51 am

CaliforniaResident wrote:Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?


not this system, according to the GFS it may be another system in over a week or so, don't hold your breath at the moment
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:54 am

CaliforniaResident wrote:Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?


No. You could get its remnants though.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:55 am

somethingfunny wrote:
CaliforniaResident wrote:Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?


That was never in any forecast.


A couple runs brought it close to be fair, but now they've shifted southwest.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#20 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:57 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:
CaliforniaResident wrote:Is it still forecast to possibly make landfall in CA as a TS?


That was never in any forecast.


A couple runs brought it close to be fair, but now they've shifted southwest.


:(
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