EPAC: LOWELL - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:46 pm

This is one of the top 5 largest eyes I've ever seen, I've seen full hurricanes that are smaller than the eye of Lowell
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

#82 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:50 pm

Major Hurricane Cristina's convection is about the size of Lowell's eye. What a large eye, Lowell! It just needs to organize its core and to shrink that eye. :wink:
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#83 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:35 am

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:20 am

Zoomed out view.
Image
0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

#85 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:06 am

Wow!

Karina could practically fit inside Lowell's eye. I wonder what the minimum central pressure is in there?
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:33 am

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Lowell continues to exhibit a rather large, but ragged eye in
microwave and geostationary satellite imagery. The latest Dvorak
intensity estimates are 55 kt from SAB and 65 kt from TAFB. A
couple of recent ASCAT passes shows a large area of 50 to 55 kt
winds. Based on a blend of the satellite estimates and the ASCAT
data the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt. Although not
explicitly shown in the official forecast, Lowell could become a
hurricane during the next 6 to 12 hours while it remains over 26
degree Celsius water and in a low-shear environment. After that
time, the shear is expected to remain low, but the cyclone will be
moving over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air
mass that should cause weakening. Given the large size of Lowell's
wind field, the rate of weakening is likely to be slower than the
typical spin down of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that move
over cool water. In fact, Lowell is likely to become a
convective-free post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in
a few days.

The initial motion estimate is 315/3. A mid- to upper-level trough
extending southwestward from southern California will weaken and
move eastward today. This will allow the subtropical ridge to the
north and east of Lowell to rebuild, which will result in a slightly
faster northwestward motion during the next several days. The track
guidance is in good agreement during the first 2 to 3 days, and the
NHC track is near the middle of the tightly clustered model envelope
during that time. Later in the period the spread of the models
increases, but for now the NHC track will remain near the model
consensus at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 19.7N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 20.3N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 25.3N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z 28.3N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#87 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:47 am

I have a feeling Lowell is at least borderline cat.2.

Hard to tell without recon... Especially since Dvorak is so dependent on convection.

But a tropical storm does not have a well defined eye like that.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

hectopascal

LOWELL

#88 Postby hectopascal » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:22 am

Image


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#89 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:56 am

8th hurricane of the season

EP, 12, 2014082112, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1220W, 65, 982, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 160, 160, 1010, 360, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082112, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1220W, 65, 982, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 80, 80, 80, 1010, 360, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082112, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1220W, 65, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1010, 360, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:45 am

Congratulations Lowell!
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Hurricane

#91 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:46 am

HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

The convective ring surrounding the large ragged eye of Lowell has
closed off over the past few hours, and the eye has warmed a little.
The initial intensity is set to 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, making Lowell the seventh hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season. Little change in intensity is
expected in the next 12 hours, but Lowell should begin to slowly
weaken after that time as it moves over progressively cooler waters
and into a drier and more stable airmass. Since Lowell is such a
large cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin
down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell becoming a post-tropical cyclone
with gale-force winds in 3 days and weakening to a remnant low
afterward.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/03. As a mid/upper-level
trough over southern California weakens and moves eastward, a
ridge will rebuild to the north and east of Lowell. This should
result in a faster northwestward motion for the next 3 days,
followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest as the cyclone
becomes a shallower system steered by the low-level ridge to the
north. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
one, and is very close to the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.0N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Hurricane

#92 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:29 am

It's very cute looking :D
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Hurricane

#93 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:23 pm

Lowell is huge and already contributing to rainfall in the southwestern US!

Image
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Hurricane

#94 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:25 pm

Classic large ragged eye

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#95 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:45 pm

Lowell looks high end Cat 1.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

#96 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:28 pm

It has a large eye because it has multiple centres.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Hurricane

#97 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:45 pm

HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

The structure of Lowell continues to feature a large eye, however
the convective banding is a little more ragged than it was 6 hours
ago. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on the latest TAFB
and SAB Dvorak classifications. Lowell will be moving across the 26C
isotherm in the next few hours, and gradual weakening should begin
as the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a more stable
airmass. Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take
longer than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell
becoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and
weakening to a remnant low afterward.

Lowell jogged a little to the right over the past few hours, but
seems to have resumed a slow northwestward motion of 315/03. The
track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Lowell should move a
little faster toward the northwest as a ridge rebuilds to the east
and north of the cyclone. Late in the period a shallower Lowell
should be steered more toward the west-northwest by the
low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a
little to the right of the previous one through 72 hours to account
for the initial position, but is otherwise an update of the
previous NHC track. The official forecast also lies very close to
a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 20.3N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Hurricane

#98 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:06 pm

We all know that these simulated IR satellite graphics are unreliable at best (and usually flat out wrong) but they give us an easy-to-see representation of potential rainfall. Check out how Lowell's moisture plume may affect the United States according to the 12z GFS!

Initialization
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

Although the track will remain well offshore, the scenario forecast by the NHC is pretty interesting:

Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take
longer than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell
becoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and
weakening to a remnant low afterward.


A "naked swirl" with gale-force winds?? :D
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#99 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:52 pm

:uarrow: I guess I'm getting rain partially from this today then
0 likes   

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Hurricane

#100 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:05 pm

The floater on Lowell doesn't do it any justice. Holy bejeezmus

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests