EPAC: LOWELL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 12, 2014082212, , BEST, 0, 218N, 1239W, 55, 987, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 140, 140, 160, 1010, 375, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082212, , BEST, 0, 218N, 1239W, 55, 987, TS, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 60, 80, 1010, 375, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,

Like Karina, Lowell is at 55 knts.

[WeatherGuesser]

From yesterday:

Terra/MODIS
2014/233
08/21/2014
18:40 UTC

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg


Hopefully, they'll catch a new image on the orbital path later today.


AquaModis almost missed yesterday: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Deep convection continues to gradually decrease around the large
ragged eye-like feature of Lowell. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell should
continue to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during
the forecast period, and the cyclone should become post-tropical by
48 hours, and a remnant low by 72 hours.

The initial motion is 315/09. Lowell should continue moving
generally northwestward during the next 48 hours as a mid-level
ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening
cyclone should turn more west-northwestward as it comes under the
influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 22.1N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Cyclenall]

Lowell. I like this one . The eye will go down in history...

[euro6208]

That was fun while it lasted

[Kingarabian]

Too bad convection is waning. Would've been great to have them all hurricanes at one time. Perfect satellite picture.

[Yellow Evan]

Held at 50 knts

EP, 12, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 221N, 1244W, 50, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 140, 140, 160, 1010, 375, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 221N, 1244W, 50, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 60, 80, 1010, 375, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/HjaOHsS.jpg

Too bad convection is waning. Would've been great to have them all hurricanes at one time. Perfect satellite picture.

We've already had 3 hurricanes active at once this year. Iselle, Julio, and Genevieve.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection continues to gradually wane around the large circulation
of Lowell. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of
the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The cyclone is now over waters around 25C and will be
moving over waters of 22-23C by 36 hours. This should results in
Lowell becomes a post-tropical cyclone by that time, followed by
weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days.

The initial motion is 310/08. Lowell should continue moving
generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level
ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening
cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as it comes
under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC
forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC track to
account for the initial position and it close to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 22.4N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 12, 2014082300, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1250W, 45, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 140, 140, 160, 1010, 375, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection associated with Lowell continues to decrease as the
circulation moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with
the surviving convection now in a band over the eastern semicircle.
The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell is
forecast to degenerate to a remnant low with the remaining
convection dissipating in about 36 hours. However, since the sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track are 22-24 deg C,
this could occur anytime between now and then.

The initial motion is 305/7. Lowell should continue moving generally
northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the
east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone is
forecast to turn toward the west-northwest while it comes under the
influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The track guidance
between 48-120 hours has shifted a little to the left since the last
advisory. The new forecast track is also nudged to the left, but
lies a little to the right of the model consensus and the center of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 22.9N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230838
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Convection associated with Lowell has continued to wane overnight
with only a small convective band noted well north of the center in
the most recent microwave image. Recent ASCAT data supports an
initial wind speed of 40 kt. Lowell should continue to gradually
weaken during the next several days while it moves over colder
water and into a drier and more stable airmass. The convection is
likely to dissipate later today, and Lowell is expected to become a
remnant low within 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. The cyclone is forecast
to continue moving northwestward today, but should turn west-
northwestward in 24 to 36 hours when it comes under the influence
of a low-level ridge to the north. There is very large spread in
the track guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF taking the remnant
low northwestward, while most the other models show a westward or
west-southwestward track. Since the majority of the guidance and
the TVCE consensus has shifted to the left, the NHC track at 72
hours and beyond has been adjusted southward, but it still remains
north of the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 23.4N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 12, 2014082312, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1262W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 120, 1008, 240, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, M,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Lowell has been devoid of deep convection since around 1000 UTC. If
deep convection does not regenerate, which seems unlikely given that
the cyclone is moving over SSTs around 23C, Lowell could become a
post-tropical cyclone by tonight. The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The cyclone should
gradually spin down during the next few days as it remains over cool
SSTs and in a stable airmass.

The initial motion estimate remains 310/7 kt. Lowell is expected to
turn west-northwestward tonight and continue moving generally
west-northwestward through the period under the influence of a
low-level ridge to the north. There continues to be a large spread
in the track model guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing
more poleward motion at days 4 and 5 while the GFS and GEFS ensemble
mean show a more westward track. The new NHC track forecast is
between the two camps and a little to the left of the previous
advisory, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 23.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 24.4N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 24/1200Z 25.1N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z 25.4N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 25.8N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 27.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 28.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z 30.0N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 12, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 238N, 1267W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 120, 1008, 240, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, S,

[Yellow Evan]

Pretty much naked at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232128
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Lowell is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone.
The storm has lacked significant deep convection for nearly 12
hours and, if this trend continues, Lowell will likely be declared a
post-tropical cyclone tonight. The initial wind speed remains
35 kt for this advisory based on the latest Dvorak CI number from
TAFB. The weakening system is currently over 23 C waters and in a
stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause Lowell
to degenerate into a remnant low soon. The post-tropical cyclone is
expected to persist for several days while it gradually spins down.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt, steered by a
low-level ridge to its north. A slight turn toward the west-
northwest is expected tomorrow, and that general motion with an
increase in forward speed is predicted through the remainder of the
forecast period. There remains a considerable spread in the
guidance due to model differences in forecasting the strength of
the low-level north of Lowell. The GFS shows a more westward
track while the ECMWF has a more northwestward motion. The NHC track
forecast lies between these scenarios, and is close to the multi-
model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 24.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 24.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1800Z 24.9N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0600Z 25.3N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 25.7N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 26.6N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 28.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z 29.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

I'm expecting next adv to be its last.

[Yellow Evan]

Apparently still a TC

EP, 12, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 246N, 1271W, 30, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, S,

[weathernerdguy]

And... It's done.