EPAC: LOWELL - Post-Tropical

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#61 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:45 pm

Still 45 knts

P, 12, 2014082000, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1205W, 45, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 180, 150, 110, 1008, 260, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
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#62 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:48 pm

It's large size is preventing it from being able to ramp up or strengthen much, IMO a high-end TS is still possible but a hurricane is becoming less likely the slower it intensifies.
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Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

There has been little change in the organization of Lowell since
the last advisory, with multiple curved convective bands present
mainly in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 45 kt, and that is also the
initial intensity. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent in all
directions.

The initial motion is now 315/6. Lowell is expected to move slowly
northwestward during the next 48 hours while a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough digs southward along the California coast and
weakens the subtropical ridge. The trough should subsequently move
eastward allowing some ridging to rebuild to the north of the
storm. This is expected to cause Lowell to accelerate toward the
west-northwest by the end of the period. The new forecast track is
an update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the
guidance envelope. It should be noted that Lowell and Karina are
likely to be close enough to interact by the end of the forecast
period. At this time, it appears that the smaller Karina should
have only a minor impact on the track of the larger Lowell.

Lowell is expected to remain in a light/moderate vertical wind
shear environment for the next 4 days or so. For the first 48
hours, the forecast track keeps the cyclone over sea surface
temperatures of 26C-27C. After that, the temperatures along the
track are expected to decrease to near 22C by 120 hours. Based
on these factors, the new intensity forecast is the same as the
previous advisory through 48 hours, then shows a slightly faster
weakening thereafter. The latter part of the intensity forecast is
a little below the intensity consensus and is in best agreement
with the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.7N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.1N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 21.5N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 28.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re:

#64 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:22 am

TheStormExpert wrote:It's large size is preventing it from being able to ramp up or strengthen much, IMO a high-end TS is still possible but a hurricane is becoming less likely the slower it intensifies.


Reminds me of Douglas.
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Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:28 am

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

The large tropical storm is maintaining its strength tonight.
Curved convective bands remain well organized on the south side
of the circulation, but deep convection is thin to the north of the
center. The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, in agreement with
the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell is currently over
27 C waters, and in an atmosphere of fairly low shear and high
moisture. Since the storm is expected to remain in these favorable
conditions for another 36 hours, some strengthening is forecast.
Beyond that time, however, Lowell will be moving over waters cooler
than 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass. These
environmental conditions should cause the cyclone to gradually lose
strength. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and now
calls for Lowell to weaken to a remnant low by 96 hours.

Lowell has wobbled to the west recently, but a 12-h initial motion
estimate is northwestward at about 4 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisories. A mid- to
upper-level low over southern California has produced a substantial
weakness in the subtropical ridge and should cause Lowell to move
slowly northwestward to north-northwestward during the next day or
so. The upper low is expected to move northeastward and weaken
late Thursday or Friday, allowing the subtropical ridge to build to
the north of the storm. This pattern change should cause Lowell to
speed up and gradually turn west-northwestward. The track guidance
has shifted a little to the west this cycle, and the NHC forecast
is adjusted slightly in that direction.

A pair of altimeter passes around 0400 UTC provided excellent sea
height data for Lowell; therefore, there is high confidence in the
12-ft sea radii for this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 18.7N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:51 am

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

The satellite presentation of Lowell has not changed much during the
past few hours, with curved convective bands to the south and west
of the center but little deep convection in the northern semicircle.
The initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement with the latest
TAFB Dvorak estimate. Some strengthening is still possible in the
next day or so while the cyclone remains over marginal SSTs and in
an in an environment of low to moderate shear. After that time, the
cyclone will move over progressively cooler waters, which should
result in gradual weakening to a remnant low by day 4. The NHC
forecast is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 310/04, as Lowell continues moving
slowly northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by
a mid/upper-level low over southern California. The upper low
is forecast to fill and move eastward after 24 hours, but Lowell
will maintain a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed
through day 3 as the rebuilding mid-level ridge to the north moves
westward. A weakening Lowell will then be steered toward the
west-northwest by an expansive low-level ridge over the north
Pacific. Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement
on this scenario. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one
through 72 hours and has been adjusted a little to the left after
that time, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.1N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#67 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:56 pm

It seems to look more like a hurricane now?
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#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:55 pm

55 knots are tied to Lowell.

EP, 12, 2014082018, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1214W, 55, 988, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 180, 150, 110, 1008, 300, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082018, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1214W, 55, 988, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
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Re:

#69 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It seems to look more like a hurricane now?


I agree. It's been looking like a hurricane for a while now. But microwave imagery does not really show a consolidated core... unless that's a massive eyewall.

Image
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#70 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:15 pm

W side needs more convection before I call this a hurricane. Cute system though.
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Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

Lowell continues to feature a large circulation center with a
convective band that wraps most of the way around the circulation.
The latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates are T3.5/55 kt, and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory. A little additional
intensification is possible in the next 12 to 24 hours before the
cyclone begins to move over cooler waters, and the NHC forecast
reflects this possibility. After that time, a gradual spin down is
forecast as the cyclone encounters increasingly hostile
thermodynamic conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
latest IVCN consensus and shows Lowell becoming a remnant low by 4
days.

The initial motion estimate is 315/4, as Lowell is moving slowly
northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by
a mid/upper-level low over southern California. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, with the cyclone expected to gain some
forward speed after 12 hours while the trough lifts out and some
ridging rebuilds to the east. As Lowell weakens, the cyclone will
turn west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of a low-
level ridge over the north Pacific. Overall, the track model
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC
track is generally an update of the previous forecast and is close
to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 19.4N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 26.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#72 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:55 pm

Image

Image
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#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:06 pm

I wanna think this is a hurricane.
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#74 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:46 pm

Reminds me of Talas from the WPAC.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#75 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:46 pm

EP, 12, 2014082100, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1215W, 55, 988, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 180, 150, 110, 1008, 300, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082100, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1215W, 55, 988, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
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Re:

#76 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:17 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Reminds me of Talas from the WPAC.

I think its structure looks better than Talas
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#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:23 pm

Weird looking storm...convection isn't terribly deep though.
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Re: EPAC: LOWELL - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

Microwave imagery shows that Lowell has formed a ragged eye with a
diameter of about 90 n mi, with conventional satellite imagery
continuing to show a complex of convective bands wrapped around the
eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt,
and there was a recent CIMSS AMSU estimate of 64 kt. The initial
intensity remains 55 kt, although this could be a little
conservative. The cirrus outflow remains good to excellent in all
directions.

The initial motion is now 320/3. Water vapor imagery shows a
mid/upper-level trough extending from a low over southern California
south-southwestward into the Pacific. This trough has weakened the
subtropical ridge north of Lowell and left the cyclone in an area of
weak steering currents. After 12 hours, the ridge is forecast to
re-build as the trough moves eastward. This should allow Lowell to
move somewhat faster toward the northwest. Later in the forecast
period, a weakening Lowell should turn west-northwestward as it
comes under the influence of a low-level ridge over the north
Pacific. There is no significant change to the guidance since the
last advisory, so the new forecast track lies close to the previous
track and in the center of the guidance envelope.

A little strengthening is possible before Lowell crosses the 26C
isotherm in about 24 hours, and there is a chance Lowell could
briefly become a hurricane during this time. Thereafter, the
cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters colder water along
the forecast track. The new intensity forecast is an update of the
previous forecast, and it is in best agreement with the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 19.6N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#79 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:41 pm

Surprised there aren't more posts here. Fascinating storm.
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Re:

#80 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:45 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Surprised there aren't more posts here. Fascinating storm.


Surprised as well, I mean, since they're looking at 96L's thread, why not look at Lowell?
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