ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:03 pm

Post away.

AL, 96, 2014081818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 438W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081900, , BEST, 0, 113N, 453W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081906, , BEST, 0, 108N, 467W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081912, , BEST, 0, 104N, 479W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 30, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 490W, 20, 1009, DB


Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116570&hilit=&start=0
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#2 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:05 pm

Rather strong at initialization. 1009 mb is decent.
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#3 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:11 pm

Great- - :eek:
1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:20 pm

let see how invest go other didnt make it to td
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:27 pm

Waiting on floaters, they have 96L listed but no images yet.
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#6 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:27 pm

Floater is up...looking juicy with plenty of moisture to work with:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby micktooth » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:51 pm

If this system does develop and get in to the Gulf, I'm sure the media will be all over it, especially in NOLA. Next Friday 8/29 is the 9th Anniversary of Katrina and the 2nd Anniversary of Hurricane Isaac.


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#8 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:54 pm

We'll see what the 12z GFS says. 12z Euro was confusing; shows no development.
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Re:

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:We'll see what the 12z GFS says. 12z Euro was confusing; shows no development.


12z GFS is out already. And Euro isn't as good in the Carb as it is in the EPAC.
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#10 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:03 pm

GFS (which has been pretty good since June with not developing phantom storms) shows a decent system going into the Gulf in about a week. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:05 pm

micktooth wrote:If this system does develop and get in to the Gulf, I'm sure the media will be all over it, especially in NOLA. Next Friday 8/29 is the 9th Anniversary of Katrina and the 2nd Anniversary of Hurricane Isaac.


Any storm nearing the gulf around labor day is a huge red flag for the northern Gulf Coast. Just since 2005, Katrina, Gustav and Isaac all hit within a few days of each other.
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Re:

#12 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:09 pm

Hammy wrote:GFS (which has been pretty good since June with not developing phantom storms) shows a decent system going into the Gulf in about a week. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.

Indeed, within 24 hours we go from seeing "season cancel-related" posts to posts indicating maybe we have a U.S. and Caribbean islands threat on our hands.

I am seeing some turning looking at the vis floater, gradually organizing it looks like:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:13 pm

Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:16 pm

WXman what is the pattern looking like then, will there be high pressure se coast?? will there be a weakness?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:17 pm

I don't see any turning but I do see the moisture fetch coming in from the south which I believe the GFS 700MB RH maps have been showing.

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#16 Postby hurricanekid416 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:19 pm

Isn't there a Kelvin wave in the area I heard some talk on the forms yesterday about a Kelvin wave coming in to the Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby perk » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.



Care to share any prelimenary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:30 pm

perk wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.



Care to share any prelimenary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.


Based off guidance it looks like if the system nears the NW caribbean the GOM would be open and favorable but I would love to hear your take on this as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:35 pm

perk wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.



Care to share any preliminary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.


Toward the region between the western Bahamas and the NW Caribbean in 7 days is where I'd put it. "Landfall" somewhere between Texas and Bermuda, though it does look like it could move into the south-central to SE Gulf in a week, particularly if it does not develop in the next 3-5 days.
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#20 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:36 pm

AL, 96, 2014081918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 505W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
NHC upgraded wind speed to 25kt 8-)
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