ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:03 pm

Post away.

AL, 96, 2014081818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 438W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081900, , BEST, 0, 113N, 453W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081906, , BEST, 0, 108N, 467W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081912, , BEST, 0, 104N, 479W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 30, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 490W, 20, 1009, DB


Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116570&hilit=&start=0
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#2 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:05 pm

Rather strong at initialization. 1009 mb is decent.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
Cunxi Huang
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 323
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: San Luis Obispo, CA

#3 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:11 pm

Great- - :eek:
1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   
2006 SuTY SAOMAI | 2009 TY LINFA | 2010 TY FANAPI | 2010 SuTY MEGI | 2016 SuTY MERANTI | 2019 SuTY LEKIMA
DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:20 pm

let see how invest go other didnt make it to td
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:27 pm

Waiting on floaters, they have 96L listed but no images yet.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#6 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:27 pm

Floater is up...looking juicy with plenty of moisture to work with:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
micktooth
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 391
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:47 pm
Location: PreK:New Orleans,PostK:Colorado

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby micktooth » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:51 pm

If this system does develop and get in to the Gulf, I'm sure the media will be all over it, especially in NOLA. Next Friday 8/29 is the 9th Anniversary of Katrina and the 2nd Anniversary of Hurricane Isaac.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:54 pm

We'll see what the 12z GFS says. 12z Euro was confusing; shows no development.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:We'll see what the 12z GFS says. 12z Euro was confusing; shows no development.


12z GFS is out already. And Euro isn't as good in the Carb as it is in the EPAC.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#10 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:03 pm

GFS (which has been pretty good since June with not developing phantom storms) shows a decent system going into the Gulf in about a week. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5248
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:05 pm

micktooth wrote:If this system does develop and get in to the Gulf, I'm sure the media will be all over it, especially in NOLA. Next Friday 8/29 is the 9th Anniversary of Katrina and the 2nd Anniversary of Hurricane Isaac.


Any storm nearing the gulf around labor day is a huge red flag for the northern Gulf Coast. Just since 2005, Katrina, Gustav and Isaac all hit within a few days of each other.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re:

#12 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:09 pm

Hammy wrote:GFS (which has been pretty good since June with not developing phantom storms) shows a decent system going into the Gulf in about a week. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.

Indeed, within 24 hours we go from seeing "season cancel-related" posts to posts indicating maybe we have a U.S. and Caribbean islands threat on our hands.

I am seeing some turning looking at the vis floater, gradually organizing it looks like:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:13 pm

Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.
0 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:16 pm

WXman what is the pattern looking like then, will there be high pressure se coast?? will there be a weakness?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:17 pm

I don't see any turning but I do see the moisture fetch coming in from the south which I believe the GFS 700MB RH maps have been showing.

RGB saved loop

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

hurricanekid416
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 179
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:43 pm

#16 Postby hurricanekid416 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:19 pm

Isn't there a Kelvin wave in the area I heard some talk on the forms yesterday about a Kelvin wave coming in to the Atlantic
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby perk » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.



Care to share any prelimenary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5248
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:30 pm

perk wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.



Care to share any prelimenary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.


Based off guidance it looks like if the system nears the NW caribbean the GOM would be open and favorable but I would love to hear your take on this as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:35 pm

perk wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.



Care to share any preliminary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.


Toward the region between the western Bahamas and the NW Caribbean in 7 days is where I'd put it. "Landfall" somewhere between Texas and Bermuda, though it does look like it could move into the south-central to SE Gulf in a week, particularly if it does not develop in the next 3-5 days.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cunxi Huang
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 323
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: San Luis Obispo, CA

#20 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:36 pm

AL, 96, 2014081918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 505W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
NHC upgraded wind speed to 25kt 8-)
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests