ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah. That could be a super beast. Shear or additional ventilation though, and the possibility of creating high pressure aloft? Relative juxtaposition is important. We saw it before in 1980 (which I don't see as an analog) with Isis and Allen but where the Gulf Storm was the 5.

Worth poiinting out that in 2004, Ivan and Javier were powerful hurricanes off the west coast of Mexico and the GOM yet nothing happened.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah. That could be a super beast. Shear or additional ventilation though, and the possibility of creating high pressure aloft? Relative juxtaposition is important. We saw it before in 1980 (which I don't see as an analog) with Isis and Allen but where the Gulf Storm was the 5.

Worth poiinting out that in 2004, Ivan and Javier were powerful hurricanes off the west coast of Mexico and the GOM yet nothing happened.

Probably because the mountains of Mexico are in the way.

[floridasun78]

do 96l weak a bit?

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity is currently limited in association with an
elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[SFLcane]

Convection waning this evening...another dried up swirl by morning?

[meriland23]

Convection waining this evening...another dried up swirl by morning?

Possible but I don't think so. Models are supposing it stays weak ..barely hanging on and then booms when it gets into the GOM. But we will see.

[Hammy]

Convection waining this evening...another dried up swirl by morning?

Convection is building, although spotty, but monsoonal systems like this (in the Atlantic anyway) don't have consistent convection as there isn't any real organization yet.

[chaser1]

I personally think that 96L was prematurely tagged, and that the disturbance rolling westward to its east is the "real deal"

[latitude_20]

Convection waining this evening...another dried up swirl by morning?

Not likely. Read Gatorcane's post upthread. It's buried in the monsoon gyre right now, and most systems that develop in this region take their own sweet time.

[LaBreeze]

Convection waining this evening...another dried up swirl by morning?

Possible but I don't think so. Models are supposing it stays weak ..barely hanging on and then booms when it gets into the GOM. But we will see.

I'd love to see a dried up swirl, but I'm afraid that I may have to agree with meriland23 at this time. Too early to tell and yet I'm a bit concerned because I live in SW LA and have plans for Labor Day in Biloxi. I'll be watching this one closely (as I always do).

[ObsessedMiami]

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/08/new-orleans-hurricane-exactly-9-years-after-katrina/

I don't know who Dr. Roy Spencer is, but to put out a blog post suggesting that 96L will hit New Orleans as a hurricane using one run from the GFS ensemble is irresponsible.

Edit: I see now it's some kind of crank anti global warning site but it is being picked up by news services

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N52W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-
13N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

[wxman57]

Still no hint of rotation. Certainly no development within 48 hrs and probably not for another 4-5 days. Models have it making a 90-deg turn to the right this morning - not likely.

[wxman57]

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/08/new-orleans-hurricane-exactly-9-years-after-katrina/

I don't know who Dr. Roy Spencer is, but to put out a blog post suggesting that 96L will hit New Orleans as a hurricane using one run from the GFS ensemble is irresponsible.

Edit: I see now it's some kind of crank anti global warning site but it is being picked up by news services

You should read the article again. There is no suggestion that 96L will strike New Orleans as a hurricane. He says: "Of course, this far in advance, the hurricane (even if it forms) could make landfall anywhere along the Gulf coast. I just though the timing, exactly 9 years after Katrina, was interesting."

[ObsessedMiami]

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/08/new-orleans-hurricane-exactly-9-years-after-katrina/

I don't know who Dr. Roy Spencer is, but to put out a blog post suggesting that 96L will hit New Orleans as a hurricane using one run from the GFS ensemble is irresponsible.

Edit: I see now it's some kind of crank anti global warning site but it is being picked up by news services

You should read the article again. There is no suggestion that 96L will strike New Orleans as a hurricane. He says: "Of course, this far in advance, the hurricane (even if it forms) could make landfall anywhere along the Gulf coast. I just though the timing, exactly 9 years after Katrina, was interesting."

"It’s still over a week away, but a tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles is being forecast by the GFS model to grow into a hurricane, making landfall near New Orleans just 1 day before the 9th anniversary of Katrina’s landfall"

Especially if you don't know what the GFS is and don't read more than that paragraph, since it's above the graphics break, it seems a suggestion to me, especially since it's being directed there by a news site with that line as the headline.

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM EDT Special Feature discussion. Interesting about the wave behind.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/08/new-orleans-hurricane-exactly-9-years-after-katrina/

I don't know who Dr. Roy Spencer is, but to put out a blog post suggesting that 96L will hit New Orleans as a hurricane using one run from the GFS ensemble is irresponsible.

Edit: I see now it's some kind of crank anti global warning site but it is being picked up by news services

the good doctor only reported what the gfs was showing, wasnt his personal forecast

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Spencer_(scientist)

he went to uw-madison so that is always a plus in the weather dept...

[NDG]

This is what is basically is going to be happening over the next 24-48 hrs as suggested by the HWRF and European model, 96L is not going to do much until the TW behind it catches up to it and a new area of low pressure reforms further north, IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Still no hint of rotation. Certainly no development within 48 hrs and probably not for another 4-5 days. Models have it making a 90-deg turn to the right this morning - not likely.

if this verifies then we have 4-5 days of tensions rising on this board ..happy hurricane hunting

90 degree turn would be cool but like you said, unlikely at best especially in this setup