ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Just FYI, here is some text from the Miami NWS office. If a backdoor front does push SW toward Florida in a week ... around the same time something is approaching from the SE ... it could create a weakness for that "something" to turn into, no? We're a week out here, so a lot could change. But definitely worth watching (in my non-professional opinion, as always!) ...

Text follows:

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.



BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. `TIS THE SEASON...SO THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER TO HAVE A
HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON.

Yes, the recent GFS and EURO long range runs out 7 days does show a lingering trough off the U.S. East Coast, with the EURO showing a more pronounced, digging trough, whicjh indeed would push a backdoor front down the Western Atlantic/ U.S. Eastern seaboard.

Definitely something I touched on earlier today and woth following to see if this materializes in regards to the evolution of 94L with regards to its track down the road.

[Hurricane Andrew]

All these weeks I am home and there is nothing to track. Possible hurricane threat, and I am going on vacation without internet next week.

Go figure.

[RL3AO]

I'm certainly interested by this system. The Caribbean has been incredibly hostile in August/September in the past couple years. The Eastern Caribbean doesn't look as terrible in a few days. An upper ridge north of the system may help offset some of those strong easterlies. It is late-August afterall.

[weathernerdguy]

If this system does develop and get in to the Gulf, I'm sure the media will be all over it, especially in NOLA. Next Friday 8/29 is the 9th Anniversary of Katrina and the 2nd Anniversary of Hurricane Isaac.

Any storm nearing the gulf around labor day is a huge red flag for the northern Gulf Coast. Just since 2005, Katrina, Gustav and Isaac all hit within a few days of each other.

There was a model that had a system that was far into the future, but anyway, it had showed a track that resembled katrina and had the Louisiana landfall on the same date as katrina, most likely that wont happened.

[cycloneye]

I'm certainly interested by this system. The Caribbean has been incredibly hostile in August/September in the past couple years. The Eastern Caribbean doesn't look as terrible in a few days. An upper ridge north of the system may help offset some of those strong easterlies. It is late-August afterall.

And another factor favorable is about not going to race very fast like Bertha did.

[Alyono]

All these weeks I am home and there is nothing to track. Possible hurricane threat, and I am going on vacation without internet next week.

Go figure.

trust me, the family vacation is more important than tracking a hurricane

[Blown Away]

JB's thoughts.... I feel sorry for him, this guy loves to tweet and cannot tweet to the world his hurricane thoughts because he has to sell his product... Can you imagine the amount of tweets he would post if he was still with Accuweather??

[RL3AO]

People like to rip on JB, but the guy knows how to recognize patterns. I think he goes a bit crazy trying to forecast a track 12 days out, but in terms of "A pattern supports a hurricane threat to ______ over the next two weeks" or "Pattern B supports a cool early winter for _____", Bastardi is quite good.

[Hurricaneman]

I see some kind of spin at 10N 50W

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Anywho, 96L may be the one and may develop within the next 120 hours. It has lots of convection to work with and more favorable conditions as well. I'm still gathering forecast track thoughts.... We will see what this brings.

Synopsis for 96L and other systems:http://goo.gl/OFgv17

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[northjaxpro]

NHC bumped it just a wee bit up to 50% out 5 days for the 8p.m. TWO, compared to 40% at 2 p.m.

[somethingfunny]

'Tis the season! August 20 - September 20 holds at least half of all the US landfalls - even in slow years. This thing deserves attention until such time as it can be ruled out.

[Gustywind]

First appearence as a special feature...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 48W-55W. DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION N OF 13N.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Steve]

People like to rip on JB, but the guy knows how to recognize patterns. I think he goes a bit crazy trying to forecast a track 12 days out, but in terms of "A pattern supports a hurricane threat to ______ over the next two weeks" or "Pattern B supports a cool early winter for _____", Bastardi is quite good.

Agreed. Obviously I can deal without the hype and politics, but I learned as much from him as anyone all those years of watching the accuweather videos like long ranger and tropical updates. He was always kind enough to share hints and insights along with teleconnections. He helped many of us amateurs understand more technical aspects. If you didn't watch the Saturday summary this week; the tipoff is there. And I like the idea of Florida potential 150 miles either side for this. But yeah, it's way too early.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2014082000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 515W, 25, 1009, DB

[Steve820]

Hopefully this won't be anything destructive in the long run, as it could strengthen quite a bit by the time it reaches the GOM. It's a bit far out but they should start preparing for this potential future beast (I might even be going a little too far saying that).

[CrazyC83]

Am I the only one that gets an Ernesto (2006) vibe on this one?

[tropicwatch]

Conditions above this system are getting better and the shear in the Caribbean has started to abate a little.

[TheStormExpert]

Am I the only one that gets an Ernesto (2006) vibe on this one?

If that's the case there shouldn't be too much to worry about here in the U.S., of course that storm also formed in an El Niño season.