ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Where is the special advisory? I see "Hurricane" Cristobal on the NHC but can't find the special advisory.

It looks like some error that took out the statement from the NHC site but you can read it at the Cristobal Advisories thread.

[CrazyC83]

Confused - hurricane or tropical storm right now?

[Ntxw]

3 for 3? Certainly quality over quantity but quality in a different sense because the latter two aren't exactly pageant winners.

[tolakram]

Hurricane? Ha, and 2 pages back I wondered if it was going to survive. This is why I try to leave the forecasting to the forecasters.

RAMDIS shortwave/visible: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track at 65kts.

AL, 04, 2014082600, , BEST, 0, 250N, 719W, 65, 989, HU

[Hammy]

Center very clearly moving east on that loop as the convection expands northwestwards. As far as appearance, I've certainly seen far worse looking hurricanes, for anyone who remembers Earl in 1998 which almost looked extratropical while in the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Where is the special advisory? I see "Hurricane" Cristobal on the NHC but can't find the special advisory.

Is back up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[tolakram]

Live 30 frame IR Loop.

Time sensitive, but you can see it make a break away from the trough and then really start to strengthen.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30

[CrazyC83]

2013 has been beaten in terms of number of hurricanes...

[Frank2]

The file opens but doesn't work on my tablet - but looking at another loop it does seem to be moving due east for now...

[crimi481]

Where was Cristobal forecast to be now? - according to yesterdays NHC forecast track? 24-36 hours ago

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cristobal has developed a mid-level eye based on infrared imagery. Don't confuse this with a low-level eye, the actual center is still on the northern edge of this deep convective mass.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Could this thing moving east and strengthening change the track?

[blp]

Wow amazing blow-up. This what makes the tropics so interesting.

[trave2]

So why does a huge trough come down and cause onshore easterly winds along the whole Atlantic seaboard in the middle of August? Just when the first storm with any strength of the season is encroaching on the Continental U.S.? Interesting, just like the water vapor imagery for the last 48 hours. This plan just might backfire on them if it does not get picked up by the unseasonable backdoor front that came down from the north Atlantic

[ozonepete]

Could this thing moving east and strengthening change the track?

No. It has had a drift to the east at 2 mph but the general motion is still NNE and it will stay pretty much on the NHC track. There's no reason in the available data to doubt that.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the ECMWF which predicted it to strengthen quite quickly from today through extra-tropical transition is verifying. In fact the ECMWF develops an extra-tropical monster out of this starting around 96 hours in the North Atlantic. What a wonderful job the ECMWF did on this system while the rest of the models waivered around with little consistency.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

I hear that Ozonepete it is just weird in the way it has been moving. I will keep one eye on this storm until it is clearly gone.

[ozonepete]

So why does a huge trough come down and cause onshore easterly winds along the whole Atlantic seaboard in the middle of August? Just when the first storm with any strength of the season is encroaching on the Continental U.S.? Interesting, just like the water vapor imagery for the last 48 hours. This plan just might backfire on them if it does not get picked up by the unseasonable backdoor front that came down from the north Atlantic

This has happened more than a few times in the last few years and it's not uncommon at the end of August at all. so I wouldn't really call it that unseasonable, despite what the weather channel says. This is not some unusually cold air mass by any stretch of the imagination. No record lows are being set and as a matter of fact here in NYC it was 88F today. The normal high is 82F. Look at the temps and dewpoints out at Bermuda and north of Cristobal. Temps are in the 80s and dewpoints in the70s. This continental polar air mass has already been modified into a maritime tropical air mass over the Atlantic offshore of the eastern U.S.

[ozonepete]

I hear that Ozonepete it is just weird in the way it has been moving. I will keep one eye on this storm until it is clearly gone.

Yeah it had some really erratic movement over the last 24 hours. And yes, in your neck of the woods I would never take my eye off one of these until it passes east of me.