ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HeeBGBz
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1601 Postby HeeBGBz » Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:18 pm

I never thought Cristobal sounded very mean. On the other hand, the name Dottie gives me angst in my sonar plexus
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1602 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:46 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if Cristobal makes it close to Cat 3, it has a good 48 hrs left over warm waters and only moderate windshear, relatively speaking, IMO.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1603 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:55 pm

eyewall not closed yet:

Image
(NRL)
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#1604 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:13 pm

Cristobal is finally stacking up and with a central pressure in the low 980's he could make it to Cat 2 at least. The dry air is apparently moistened and heated under the CDO during the inflow process so as long as there is no shear the heat engine can spin up.
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#1605 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:52 pm

Recent recon readings support 70 knots.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#1606 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:22 pm

Cristobal has another 36 hours or so to strengthen in an environment of low wind shear. I'm expecting this to become a Category 2 hurricane, maybe it may make a run at major hurricane status.

FWIW, 85kt flight-level winds, 70kt surface winds, 980mb extrapolated pressure via recon.
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#1607 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:59 pm

now up to 70 kt:

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 71.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1608 Postby hipshot » Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:00 pm

This is sort of off-topic but the home page shows no active storms but when I search down to this area I see
the storms you all are discussing. Do I have an old home page address or what?

Thanks
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Re:

#1609 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:26 pm

From the Cristobal Models Thread:

blp wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:typical pattern, generally unfavorable tropics, more favorable subtropics


Lol, no kidding for the last several years now, it is our new reality.

Its a new reality I won't be embracing, a new hobby would be more delightful than this mess. Good thing there is a nearly infinite spectrum to weather and more than one basin :roll: .

SFLcane wrote:Yea euro keeps it weak cause of the desert out there. Looks horrible tonight. Cristobal is the most horrid looking hurricane I've ever seen. Looks like a fl afternoon t storm.


One of the last images I posted in the Hurricane Bertha thread was the worst looking image of a 65 knot tropical cyclone I have EVER SEEN. Former worse looking hurricanes don't even compare, the structure was non-existent and wouldn't even be declared an invest, just some clouds and minor showers:

Image

This Thread:

ozonepete wrote:This is another great example of how a system that looks pretty poor on satellite can still be a hurricane:

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Based on a blend of SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind data collected by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft a little earlier this evening, Cristobal was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Similar to Hurricane Bertha earlier this year in roughly the same location, this system's cloud pattern does not resemble that of a hurricane, with little or no evidence of banding on satellite images. Some additional strengthening is expected, however, since the SHIPS guidance shows a decrease in vertical shear during the next few days, and an increase in upper-level divergence is indicated by the global models. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The center fixes by the NOAA aircraft indicated an eastward wobble several hours ago, but recent satellite imagery hints that a slow north-northeastward motion has resumed. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 030/2 kt. In spite of the erratic motion and eastward shift of the center, the track model guidance remains in good agreement that Cristobal will move along a track similar to the previous NHC forecast. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to move through a weakness between two mid-level high pressure areas. Thereafter, as Cristobal begins to enter the mid-latitude westerlies and a shortwave trough moves off the northeast United States coastline, the tropical cyclone should accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic. The current official forecast is not much different from the previous one, and close to the GFS ensemble mean solution.

I'm disappointed that they did not explain why it looked like that. What are the chances it would be the same twice in less than a month? Pretty good maybe, its 2014 in the Atlantic...

Hurricaneman wrote:Definitley one of those quality over quantity years

:lol: Thanks, I needed that because its pretty depressing right now. 2014 Atlantic season has had neither of those two descriptors. Crummy looking CAT1 hurricanes moving out to nowhere is not quality.

euro6208 wrote:When will the Atlantic have hurricanes that actually looked like hurricanes?

Oh Dvorak so far? Only 2.0 and likely only a depression if it were somewhere else.

Exhibit B for "why is Dvorak so trusted" question.

somethingfunny wrote:This is my favorite season to track since 2010. What a bizarre little over performing storm.

The mostly unremarkable 2011 and 2012 Atlantic hurricane seasons were light years ahead of 2013 and so far, 2014. I'm not really watching closely as I would be bored to tears by this activity, 3 tropical cyclones doing the same thing in the same area...and on top not amazing just strange how crummy Bertha and Cristobal appear.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1610 Postby artist » Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:51 pm

TheEuropean wrote:eyewall not closed yet:


(NRL)

Is it unusual to have that pressure wihout an eyewall yet? And thanks for updating recon for us.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1611 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:22 pm

00z Best Track up to 70kts.

AL, 04, 2014082700, , BEST, 0, 297N, 715W, 70, 983, HU
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1612 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:23 pm

artist wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:eyewall not closed yet:


(NRL)

Is it unusual to have that pressure wihout an eyewall yet? And thanks for updating recon for us.


Not counting storms transitioning to extratropical (in which I have seen 950s without an eyewall), it isn't too common.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1613 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:39 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
artist wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:eyewall not closed yet:


(NRL)

Is it unusual to have that pressure wihout an eyewall yet? And thanks for updating recon for us.


Not counting storms transitioning to extratropical (in which I have seen 950s without an eyewall), it isn't too common.


Earl in 1998 was a cat 2 hurricane without an eyewall so maybe this could be similar to that
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1614 Postby artist » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
artist wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:eyewall not closed yet:


(NRL)

Is it unusual to have that pressure wihout an eyewall yet? And thanks for updating recon for us.


Not counting storms transitioning to extratropical (in which I have seen 950s without an eyewall), it isn't too common.

Thanks, Crazy.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1615 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:08 am

Image
Interesting stuff going on here.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1616 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:52 am

jaguarjace wrote:Image
Interesting stuff going on here.


is it me or are those systems to the NE of Cristobal pieces that broke off and became lows themselves

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1617 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:26 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
jaguarjace wrote:Interesting stuff going on here.


is it me or are those systems to the NE of Cristobal pieces that broke off and became lows themselves

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Those are both upper-level lows in association with the trough (refer to OPC surface analysis graphic below). It's essentially a region of positive vorticity caused by counterclockwise curvature around the upper level trough and counterclockwise shear associated with the speed shear of a jet streak. Furthermore, that particular setup would most likely qualify as a double-barrel low pressure system (something more common in fall/winter).

Image
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#1618 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:49 am

Cristobal just wobbled quite bit to the left this morning:

Image
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1619 Postby Bizzles » Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:08 pm

hipshot wrote:This is sort of off-topic but the home page shows no active storms but when I search down to this area I see
the storms you all are discussing. Do I have an old home page address or what?

Thanks

There's a thread about 15 threads down about it. Long story short...nobody has an answer and it's your fault. :lol:
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#1620 Postby HurricaneRyan » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:29 pm

Cristobal is a better looking storm than Bertha
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